Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Reflections on the state of the war, attrition, atrocity and why Russia is heading for an even greater disaster than expected (and I wrote from the start I didnt see how they could win this war)--all compounded by their own choices which are speeding up their army's dissolution.

We start with the mathematics of war and Russian loss rates. Best to focus on vehicles (large, easier to count, photographic evidence) and there we turn to the excellent @oryxspioenkop who has listed those with pictures attesting to loss.

With not all the losses of the last few days listed, the Russian minimum losses are 391 Tanks, 255 Armored Fighting Vehicles, 375 infantry fighting vehicles, 81 Armoured Personnel carriers, etc.

Real losses will be considerably higher, especially if you considered the heavily damaged vehicles still in Russian percentage. I think we can easily add to this figure by 25% being very cautious--in reality the losses are probably considerably higher than this.

How can we understand these losses as a % of the original invasion force. Well the Russians went into the invasion deploying about 120 of their 160 Battalion tactical groups (their fighting forces). forbes.com/sites/davidham…

Each BTG has about 700-900 personnel, 10 tanks, 20 different armored/personnel fighting vehicles, mobile artillery, anti-air, logistics support, etc. So the BTGs in the original Russian invasion force would have deployed approx 1200 tanks. globalsecurity.org/military/world…

The 391 documented tank losses alone would be equal to 39 BTGs (other units also had tanks, APCs such as the militia units from Donestk/Luhansk or airborne forces--but we can basically say the undocumented losses would more than cover what they would have lost).

So the Russians have almost lost the tanks equivalent to one-third of the best fighting formations in just over a month. This is a catastrophic loss rate--which is why the original Russian invasion force is close to being finished as a combat force without complete rest.

What the Ukrainians seem to have done is take advantage of the great achilles heel of the BTG, its lack of infantry to protect. Basically a BTG is like a boxer with a strong right hook, but a glass jaw. This study is worth a look if you want to know more. benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/c…

In comparison Russian losses of tanks so far are far higher than German losses in the Battle of Kursk in 1943, or indeed all German losses on the Eastern Front in the summer of 1943. (Germans lost 11% of their annual tank production on the EF in the summer of 1943)

We hear now that the Russians are putting together 10 more BTGs to try and help in the Donbas. Even if we cut Russian loss rates in half, that force will be chewed up in 3 weeks or so.

So Russian losses are already reaching critical stages. And not only are they losing their equipment, they are losing their best forces. One story this morning shows how they sent some of the best troops into the attack on Kyiv, only to see them decimated.

Now we have the kinds of genocidal crimes that were seen at Bucha (which actually are typical of what the Russians have been doing throughout in places such as Mariupol.

These are just increasing Ukrainian desire to resist and decreasing their political ability to reach a deal. Why try to cut a deal if your enemy is shooting your people, undefended on the street. Its almost like the Russians have no recollection of their own experiences of WWII

If anything, even more determined Ukrainian resistance will lead to greater losses than we have seen, especially as the Russians cant conquer the whole country and look set to try and bunker down in the south and east.

There they will have the Ukrainians both in front of them still fighting, and behind the lines. There will then undoubtedly be a spiral of war crimes by Russians and bitter resistance by Ukrainians.

Whats the upshot? Its hard to see how Russia, even if it throw in the rest of its uncommitted BTGs can actually keep a large, functioning army in the field for long enough to wait for additional reinforcements from new conscription classes...

...as long as the Ukrainians are given the right equipment in the right amounts quickly. The war will require now for the Ukrainians to start attacking heavy Russian forces potentially in better defensive positions in the south and east. This will expose them to more losses.

It looks like the US/NATO/EU therefore are running out of non-military options. Russian disasters and war crimes are closing off the possibilities of negotiations are we are in a phase where both sides are trying to reinforce.

Instead of hoping for an impossible deal in the short term, the best way to shorten the war and save lives in the long run is to speed up support for Ukraine to continue causing these extreme loss rates on the Russian army.

Numbers of confirmed destroyed or abandoned Russian vehicles rising quite fast today. Already up to 410 tanks compared to 391 at the start of the day while AFV have gone from 255 to 279. These losses are not sustainable. oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack…

Btw, these are not those destroyed today, these are those for who records now exist. Many of these seem to be coming from the areas around Kyiv which have been lost by the Russians, allowing for photographic evidence of their losses from earlier.