You sir, are one of the great frauds in the group that claims to back Ukraine--but actually serves Trump (and Putin) and helps damage Ukraine. For ages you have been telling lies that Trump would be great for Ukraine, that Trump loves Zelensky, that Trump would be tough on Putin.

https://twitter.com/marcthiessen/status/1979644325710712864

Here you are before the election, assuring people that Trump loved Zelensky--indeed that Zelensky was a Ukrainian Trump! Trump of course loved Zelensky so much he humiliated him as soon as he became president. aei.org/op-eds/why-doe…

I know there is a new surge of optimism that Trump will really help Ukraine and hammer Russia. And the White House is making lots of "noise". However, keep in mind the following:
The first threat to really hammer Putin with sanctions was 9 months ago. cnbc.com/2025/01/22/tru… The first mention of Trump sending Tomahawks to Ukraine was more than 3 months ago. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/…

Trump is admitting two things here. The first is that he has been serving Russian interests by protecting Putin on numerous occasions. The second is that Trump is feeling pressure to be harder on Russia, which he really doesn’t want to do.
Response: keep up the pressure! We now live in an era in which the President of the USA is publicly admitting to acting exactly as an agent of influence of Russia would be expected to act.

Hi all, just sent out my free weekend update. This was the week where it was said many things changed, but actually relatively little did. Trump basically gave up pretending he was trying to negotiate in good faith and said if Putin doesn’t want a deal, that’s fine by him. And at the same time, Trump is encouraging Putin not to have a deal as he continues to restrict new aid to Ukraine. Can we stop pretending that Trump cares about Ukrainian dead? He’s a narcissistic sociopath. This is just a continuation of his older policy in a new way.

OK, sent out this free piece on the details of the Trump "final" plan for Ukraine that has been seen by Axios. The 5 points have basically been dictated by Putin. They set up a process which would allow Russia to expand into all of its neighbors. No one should be shocked by this. Its what Trump has been saying for years. The shocking thing is that people fooled themselves that we would not reach this point. The future of freedom and democracy in Europe is entirely in Europe's hands. I hope Europe does not blow it.

Trump is out of his depth in this trade war. He clearly didnt expect this Chinese reaction--and is accusing them of panicking. Ahhh--Projection.... The tragedy for the USA (self-inflicted) is that Trump seems to be going out of his way to strengthen China's international position. President Xi must be stunned as his good luck to be faced by such a fool--as I wrote in this piece today.

https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1908056571625533866

Pretty sure what we have seen today is Trump and Putin acting as allies to betray Ukraine and isolate Europe. What seems to have happened is this.
1) The US got Ukraine to agree a Black Sea ceasefire on the idea that if Rus broke it, the US would put more sanctions on Rus. 2) Trump then turn around and agreed sanctions relief with Russia as part of the Black Sea Ceasefire--which Ukraine would not have known (I imagine)

3) Ukraine is now in a box. If it rejects the US deal with Russia, the US can say Ukraine is the bad guy and end all sanctions.

I do not think people realize how comprehensive the Trump Administration is being in its attempts to help Putin kill Ukrainians. I have it on an excellent source that Ukrainian UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off. This should be a chilling warning for the rest of Europe. If the US can help Putin kill Ukrainians today, the US can help Putin kill lots of other Europeans tomorrow.

The full understanding of just how Trump is now allied with Putin is dawning on people. Zelensky calls for a European army as the only way to defend the continent and states clearly that the USA can’t be trusted. theguardian.com/world/live/202… The Poles seem to be saying much the same thing. Europe needs to look after itself.

Hi All, just released this piece on the Trump plan for Ukraine as outlined by Secdef Hegseth. Guess what, its the same bad plan for Ukraine that Trump people have outlined since last summer (arguably worse). Putin gets major concessions before the talks even start. Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.

Look, I know some people want to be optimistic about Trump and Ukraine. But to base it on the positions of Gen Kellogg's daughter is rather reaching. Trump's own son has been regularly mocking Ukraine and Zelensky and spreading Russian propaganda Right after Trump was elected, Don Jr mocked Zelensky (and Ukraine as well) as being about to lose US aid--or his "allowance" kyivindependent.com/trump-jr-mocks…

Worthy of note that as Trump is preparing to take office, he seems to be spending much of his time desperately trying to protect a Chinese company that has been branded a major national security threat. The tough on China stance was all hot air and BS. Saving Tik tok is the start. Trump is being more threatening to Europe than he is to China.

Hi all, just sent out my weekend update, free as always. Starts by looking at the battlefield and discusses the Ukraine is about to collapse narrative, which has recently taken off. It’s based on a one sided reaching of the evidence, and is pernicious. Actually, the war is globally stretching Russian military forces to the breaking (as Syria shows). Basically Russia is throwing everything it has at Ukraine and is still making small advances. In all of 2024 Russia has taken about half of one percent of Ukraine.

Hi Everyone, just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Just wanted to start with a word of thanks. Woke up today and discovered that my s-stak now has more than 50000 subscribers, which is rather astonishing. So thank you! Subscribers come from all but 10 countries in the world (if anyone can get someone from Greenland to sign up). It has a truly international reach, with more than 1000 subscribers from India and approaching 500 from Nigeria for instance. Darkness of red is number of subscribers

Which calls have I gotten wrong on the war @Dominic2306 ? You were the one who wanted to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in 2022 as it had no chance. I will take you through my positions.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1859168295502397743

1) In January 2022 I wrote that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a catastrophe, would not be over soon and that Ukraine would fight and Russia was an overrated power. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…

Good lord, an outright Putin apologist is named to be head of US national intelligence

https://twitter.com/kleavittnh/status/1856791109336449453

Good lord 2, Matt Gaetz as Attorney General. The GOP seems hellbent on turning the US Government over to Russia.

https://twitter.com/collinrugg/status/1856796879033700515

Good Morning Everyone in North America. Today is the day that The Strategists (my latest book) is released--and you can start reading it now. Its the story of how Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, Mussolini and Hitler were formed as strategists, and from that how they fought WWII. penguinrandomhouse.com/books/623808/t… Its been widely and positively reviewed (with more to come) with my favorite endorsement from Margaret Atwood. If you want to get a flavor of the book, I was able to release a 3000 word excerpt on Churchill's experiences on the Western Front in 1915-16 phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-strategi…

Worth noting that President Zelensky said openly last night that one of the Ukrainian strategic aims was to create a buffer zone inside Russia to provide protection to Ukraine (and also inevitably to draw Russian forces to it). It shows how the early analysis of this offensive was dreadful. edition.cnn.com/2024/08/18/eur… This offensive was passed of as a wasteful raid--but so far the Ukrainians have achieved a number of strategic aims, and are well on their way to establishing a large buffer, as Ive bee saying for ten days. I described it in my last two weekend updates.

https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1825074254817177821

The @CSIS Interpret China resource has assembled a number of very interesting sources on how the Chinese state is thinking about and reacting to the Russo-Ukraine War. It is a really helpful one-stop shop that anyone interested in the subject should examine.interpret.csis.org One report. by a leading Chinese scholar, talks about how Russia is trying to recalibrate its global relationships, and how the Chinese-Russian alliance, while strong, is no longer the "limitless" partnerships that was proclaimed before the invasion. interpret.csis.org/translations/t…

And the battle lines have (at least temporarily) stabilized after all the doom and gloom of the last few weeks. No great Russian breakthroughs and exploitations, some small, incremental advances at very high cost. With Ukraine getting more ammunition, Russian losses might even rise. UK Intelligence estimates 465000 Russian casualties so far--an staggering figure. The Russians are generating soldiers, but losing them at an astounding clip. The disregard of the Russian leadership for their own people is one reason Ukraine must win.

https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1786667385505693763

Hi All, just sent out this piece on the brutally simple lesson that we have seen in the last few days, one that Europe must learn from and prepare for immediately if the continent is not to be the plaything of nuclear powers. Non-nuclear Ukraine has been made to suffer at the hands of a nuclear power. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the continent as a whole.