I do not think people realize how comprehensive the Trump Administration is being in its attempts to help Putin kill Ukrainians. I have it on an excellent source that Ukrainian UAV operations are 15% less effective because of the US intel cut off. This should be a chilling warning for the rest of Europe. If the US can help Putin kill Ukrainians today, the US can help Putin kill lots of other Europeans tomorrow.

The full understanding of just how Trump is now allied with Putin is dawning on people. Zelensky calls for a European army as the only way to defend the continent and states clearly that the USA can’t be trusted. theguardian.com/world/live/202… The Poles seem to be saying much the same thing. Europe needs to look after itself.

Hi All, just released this piece on the Trump plan for Ukraine as outlined by Secdef Hegseth. Guess what, its the same bad plan for Ukraine that Trump people have outlined since last summer (arguably worse). Putin gets major concessions before the talks even start. Ukraine is getting nothing concrete. No security guarantees from the US of any value, no NATO membership, even it seems, no promise of future US aid for Ukraine. Maybe those rose tinted spectacles need to be removed.

Look, I know some people want to be optimistic about Trump and Ukraine. But to base it on the positions of Gen Kellogg's daughter is rather reaching. Trump's own son has been regularly mocking Ukraine and Zelensky and spreading Russian propaganda Right after Trump was elected, Don Jr mocked Zelensky (and Ukraine as well) as being about to lose US aid--or his "allowance" kyivindependent.com/trump-jr-mocks…

Worthy of note that as Trump is preparing to take office, he seems to be spending much of his time desperately trying to protect a Chinese company that has been branded a major national security threat. The tough on China stance was all hot air and BS. Saving Tik tok is the start. Trump is being more threatening to Europe than he is to China.

Hi all, just sent out my weekend update, free as always. Starts by looking at the battlefield and discusses the Ukraine is about to collapse narrative, which has recently taken off. It’s based on a one sided reaching of the evidence, and is pernicious. Actually, the war is globally stretching Russian military forces to the breaking (as Syria shows). Basically Russia is throwing everything it has at Ukraine and is still making small advances. In all of 2024 Russia has taken about half of one percent of Ukraine.

Hi Everyone, just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Just wanted to start with a word of thanks. Woke up today and discovered that my s-stak now has more than 50000 subscribers, which is rather astonishing. So thank you! Subscribers come from all but 10 countries in the world (if anyone can get someone from Greenland to sign up). It has a truly international reach, with more than 1000 subscribers from India and approaching 500 from Nigeria for instance. Darkness of red is number of subscribers

Which calls have I gotten wrong on the war @Dominic2306 ? You were the one who wanted to sacrifice Ukraine to Russia in 2022 as it had no chance. I will take you through my positions.

https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1859168295502397743

1) In January 2022 I wrote that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a catastrophe, would not be over soon and that Ukraine would fight and Russia was an overrated power. thecritic.co.uk/the-new-appeas…

Good lord, an outright Putin apologist is named to be head of US national intelligence

https://twitter.com/kleavittnh/status/1856791109336449453

Good lord 2, Matt Gaetz as Attorney General. The GOP seems hellbent on turning the US Government over to Russia.

https://twitter.com/collinrugg/status/1856796879033700515

Good Morning Everyone in North America. Today is the day that The Strategists (my latest book) is released--and you can start reading it now. Its the story of how Churchill, Roosevelt, Stalin, Mussolini and Hitler were formed as strategists, and from that how they fought WWII. penguinrandomhouse.com/books/623808/t… Its been widely and positively reviewed (with more to come) with my favorite endorsement from Margaret Atwood. If you want to get a flavor of the book, I was able to release a 3000 word excerpt on Churchill's experiences on the Western Front in 1915-16 phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/the-strategi…

Worth noting that President Zelensky said openly last night that one of the Ukrainian strategic aims was to create a buffer zone inside Russia to provide protection to Ukraine (and also inevitably to draw Russian forces to it). It shows how the early analysis of this offensive was dreadful. edition.cnn.com/2024/08/18/eur… This offensive was passed of as a wasteful raid--but so far the Ukrainians have achieved a number of strategic aims, and are well on their way to establishing a large buffer, as Ive bee saying for ten days. I described it in my last two weekend updates.

https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1825074254817177821

The @CSIS Interpret China resource has assembled a number of very interesting sources on how the Chinese state is thinking about and reacting to the Russo-Ukraine War. It is a really helpful one-stop shop that anyone interested in the subject should examine.interpret.csis.org One report. by a leading Chinese scholar, talks about how Russia is trying to recalibrate its global relationships, and how the Chinese-Russian alliance, while strong, is no longer the "limitless" partnerships that was proclaimed before the invasion. interpret.csis.org/translations/t…

And the battle lines have (at least temporarily) stabilized after all the doom and gloom of the last few weeks. No great Russian breakthroughs and exploitations, some small, incremental advances at very high cost. With Ukraine getting more ammunition, Russian losses might even rise. UK Intelligence estimates 465000 Russian casualties so far--an staggering figure. The Russians are generating soldiers, but losing them at an astounding clip. The disregard of the Russian leadership for their own people is one reason Ukraine must win.

https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1786667385505693763

Hi All, just sent out this piece on the brutally simple lesson that we have seen in the last few days, one that Europe must learn from and prepare for immediately if the continent is not to be the plaything of nuclear powers. Non-nuclear Ukraine has been made to suffer at the hands of a nuclear power. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the continent as a whole.

The Polish government now saying that they can conceive of NATO forces in Ukraine. War is a dynamic process and can lead to dramatic changes--its amazing that so many people cannot see that such a development is becoming more and more possible.

https://twitter.com/PolandMFA/status/1766118567529869614

Also important to see @sikorskiradek challenge Russian reflexive control. This is about European states saying to Russia that we dont accept the security paradigm you are trying to impose. Make Russia worry more. This is exactly what I said 4 days ago.

https://x.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1764597306052022433?s=20

Just sent out an update on the chance of European intervention for Ukraine, motivated by the deliberate statements of @EmmanuelMacron People who discount European intervention for Ukraine do not understand war. The longer they go on, the bloodier they become... the more state's contemplate actions that previously they never thought possible. As Russia slaughters hundreds of thousands and the war drags on, it is increasing the chances of intervention. Only a fool would deny that--and Macron is no fool

Trump’s admission yesterday that he would be happy to encourage Putin to attack Europe should and all hopes that somehow the Republican Party is salvageable. As such I wrote a piece that the Dems should take 2 bold steps now to reach out to sane Repubs. substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_…
Like FDR in 1940, in the Face of isolationists who were sympathetic to Hitler, the Dems should name two internationalist Republicans to the Cabinet. Second, they need to consider a unity ticket in 2024. Think Michelle Obama and Adam Kinzinger.

So all you Republican supporters who say you are pro-Ukraine, speaker Johnson putting a bill forward specifically cutting Ukraine out. Stop pretending that you can support MAGA and be pro Ukraine

https://twitter.com/jakesherman/status/1753857922390478944

The amazing thing is that there are large majorities in the House and the Senate that would support Ukraine aid, but Trump/Johnson/MAGA are so desperate to harm Ukraine and help Putin, that they are doing this. It’s not the border issue, it’s serving Putin’s interests

Just sent out my weekend update (free as always). Starts with the situation for aid to Ukraine in the US Congress (crunch time in washington is getting crunchier) Then 2 more sections. One is on the unravelling of the Trump argument that we need to aid Taiwan not Ukraine (Trump admitted he wont fight for Taiwan, which rather destroys the point). The Pied Piper of US decline actually admitted something true.

That Taurus on its own wouldn’t be a game changer is a specious argument. Having the range and accuracy advantage certainly could be, and Taurus would be a significant part of that.

https://twitter.com/annakatrein/status/1742489200702673299

Also, if your criterion is to provide only game changing weapons, then Germany should not be providing much of the military equipment that it is. No vehicle is a game changer in this war, yet Germany provides them to Ukraine. Why can these non ‘game changers’ be sent?

Just sent out the always free weekend update. This seems to have been important week in the European understanding that European states might soon be left on their mostly on their own to keep Ukraine supported. Across Europe there were new pledges including. Plus there was the EU move to formally start the accession process with Ukraine (plus Modova and Georgia). While the US seems to be dithering about how important a Ukrainian victory is for its security--Europe is not.