Thread by @althecat

With development underway of another potential cyclone near New Caledonia, NZ may get yet another #ExtremeWeather tropical driven weather event this cyclone season.

This animation shows a 10 day rain forecast with the impact of the potential storm arriving at the end on 13/4.

Here's a 24 satellite loop of the storm in question (currently Invest #99p) which has been meandering north of New Caledonia, and becoming increasingly organised.

Another view of the storm this time of IR satellite imagery which shows convective bands developing around the rotation.

This 10 day animation shows the GFS model's expectations for the storm which at present show it transforming into a sub-tropical storm well north of NZ and it's remnants coming close to Northland.

Atmospheric rivers associated with the storm can be seen raking the West Coast.

But that's not the end of the current tropical scenario unfortunately. Current forecasts show a second phase storm activity running from April 13 through April 19.

This animation shows the second phase in which a tropical plume brings rain in from the north and then spins up a storm in the Tasman Sea.

Unfortunately as with all tropical activity involving potential cyclones what precisely happens is difficult to predict beyond three days. But we can conclude from these model forecasts that there is an extreme weather threat to NZ through much of April.