Thread by @ThreshedThought

Battle for Donbas

A thread.

As every day goes past that the Russian doesn’t happen, we have to ask ourselves:

Are the Russian forces not actually able to generate a manoeuvre force over and above what they need to hold the line in Donbas?

Not clear yet.

Things that could change this include the Russians taking Mariupol completely. This would free up some Russian forces for the wider Donbas. But they will be exhausted so not a huge amount of use.

These ideas of Russian forces encircling the Ukrainians in Donbas seem far fetched. It doesn’t appear that the Russians can generate the manoeuvre force.

Of course generating manoeuvre is the main challenge for both forces when numbers are roughly the same. It is only by ambitious manoeuvre that you create local 3:1 overmatch to enable you to defeat small groups/pockets of enemy.

It seems to me only the Ukrainians can do that.

I’ve argued before: they need bold manoeuvre to places like Kherson, Crimea etc to dislocate the Russians.

And every day the Russians don’t attack in Donbas makes it harder for the Russians, as the Ukrainians are getting more and more equipment from the west. Vehicles in particular are key (obviously!) for manoeuvre.

I’ll update this thread as more becomes clear.

Whether Mariupol falls is key. But I’m not sure it will ever ‘fall’ enough for the Russians to move troops out

And all this by May 9th? Looking unlikely.

Supposedly the Russians have captured the seaport in Mariupol.

Ok fine.

Now clear the 500 cellars in the city full of Ukrainians waiting to counter attack.

Increasingly Mariupol is looking like a Ukrainian sacrifice to keep the Russians fixed.

Ok now we’re talking. The Ukrainians hitting that ship is exactly what they should be doing: bold ambitious targeting of Russians assets and positions to put them off balance snd overload their decision making this blunting activity in Donbas.

Ship abandoned. All crew off the Russians say. But it was on fire for a while so they will have lost crew. Question is how many

What is also interesting is that over the last 24 hours I’ve seen a huge interested in Russian bot activity attacking this account (it’s so laughable what they come up with but there you go)

This tells me that the Russians are planning something fairly soon. Doing info ops before the offensive etc.

Now if I can work that out from Twitter, you can bet your bottom dollar the Ukrainians and their western intelligence colleagues knew that.

Hitting the ship was great. Just pushes them off balance at the right time

I hope the Ukrainians have a long list of strategic targets like that

Predictable the Russians were just mooching around off the coast on a predictable patrol pattern.

Interesting

Response to the Moskva sinking

Which shows how impotent the Russians are. They’ve already lost the battle of Kyiv.

This is pure lashing out in anger, Putin style

Info - Physical Ops integration of the highest order.

Step A: release stamp of you soldier flipping the bird at enemy flag ship
Step B: sink enemy flag ship
Step C: win war

Credible reports of fresh Ukrainian reinforcements arriving in Donbas

Will keep updating the thread during the day

Now interestingly the bot traffic tells me that the Russians are trying to row back on their 9th May target

Five day old thread - still true today

Right. The Ukrainians need to hit the Crimea bridge.

That’s the next strategic target.

Great thread from a naval expert

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And she’s gone
bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…

Here's why - corruption efficient armed forces do not make