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Mike Martin MP 🔸 Profile picture
Mike Martin MP 🔸
@ThreshedThought
MP for Tunbridge Wells - Defence Select Ctte - Joint Nat Sec Strategy Ctte - Sn Visiting Fellow @warstudies - Author on Conflict (https://t.co/0KsGBXhxky)
86 subscribers
Jun 23 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
It is becoming clearer what has happened in the Middle East over the weekend, and over the last week.

A 🧵 Netanyahu has launched an attack on Iran that most (and certainly I) consider illegal under international law: he claims an imminent threat to Israel for which there is no evidence (and the US intelligence agencies say there is no evidence for).
Jun 19 • 26 tweets • 4 min read
A few short notes about what is going on in the Middle East

A 🧵 We are now in an extremely perilous moment where the possibility of miscalculation and hubris are high.

Decisions made over the next few days will impact and reverberate over the next decade.
Jun 1 • 18 tweets • 3 min read
The UK’s Strategic Defence Review.

Some early thoughts.

A 🧵 Caveat - it hasn’t come out yet, so this is based on what has so far been trailed.
Mar 19 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
Will there be peace in Ukraine?

A 🧵 Eventually, of course, there will be. But the question is will the current ‘peace process’ deliver a sustainable peace?
Mar 12 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
How Russia could test Article 5 and collapse NATO …

A 🧵 We are in a very dangerous moment in European history
Mar 4 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
As much as I wish it weren’t true, there is a fundamental difference that Starmer can’t “bridge” no matter how noble his aims.

🧵 It is this:

The Europeans (inc UK) see Ukrainian security as European security. They are the same.

The US (under the current leadership) view Ukraine as a transaction … in which they favour the Russians over the Ukrainians.
Feb 21 • 32 tweets • 5 min read
Article 5 is dead; long live article 5

A 🧵 We are in a new world now.
Feb 18 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Britain deploying troops to Ukraine?

Premature and strategically illiterate.

A 🧵 PM Starmer has announced that he would consider sending UK troops to Ukraine as part of the Ukraine peace deal.
Feb 15 • 28 tweets • 4 min read
Reflections on Day 1 of the Munich Security Conference

A 🧵 We went into the MSC in the context of the comments this week from the US Secretary of Defence announcing that:

- The US would talk with Russia about ending Ukraine War, without Ukraine
- Ukraine would not end up in NATO
- European troops would have to guarantee the detail without US support.
Feb 13 • 22 tweets • 4 min read
Europe and Ukraine: What now?

A🧶 The US has effectively said that it is scaling back its appetite to be the security guarantor in Europe - a role it has played for the almost exactly 80 years since the end of World War 2.
Feb 8 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Trump: the digest.

A 🧵 It’s been an exhausting 3 weeks listening to President Trump’s executive orders.

Are there any patterns?
Jan 8 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
How did the collapse of British military power lead to the latest Donald Trump outburst on Greenland?

A 🧵 (with some 🖍️) Trump said yesterday that he wouldn’t rule out military force to bring Greenland under US control. Greenland is the largest island in the world and in a critical strategic position - of which more later Image
Jan 6 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Today we call on the Government to investigate with our allies how to seize $300bn of frozen Russian state assets to fund Ukraine’s victory Image There is an unanswerable moral, strategic and legal case for the use of Russian state assets to support Ukraine in its war effort. It’s never been more urgent than in a world where the incoming US administration might be pulling the plug on support for Ukraine.
Dec 9, 2024 • 42 tweets • 6 min read
The last week has seem some momentous changes in Syria.

Here are some first thoughts.

A 🧵 Firstly, we should see the fall of the House of Assad as a function of a weak and rotten Syrian government, and stretched and weakened allies of Iran and Russia - more than HTS or any other rebel movement becoming vastly more competent.
Nov 25, 2024 • 36 tweets • 4 min read
Let’s take a look at the economic side of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A 🧵 Once wars go beyond a couple of months, they tend to become a battle of the economies—that is, who is will to turn a bigger part of their economy into a machine that produces arms and munitions.
Nov 18, 2024 • 29 tweets • 4 min read
The US has decided to allow Ukraine to use longer-range missiles in Russia.

This brings to a close a pretty feckless period of US policy towards Ukraine.

A 🧵 It’s quite hard to even work out what the White House is trying to do these days, apart from vainly responding to events.

Let’s dig into it.
Nov 12, 2024 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Trump and the UK Strategic Defence Review

A 🪡

(Will there be 🖍️s?) In the aftermath of Trump’s reelection I tweeted that there were a few things that the UK needed to get onto pronto:
Oct 29, 2024 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
There is a lot going on in the news at the moment, but there is a story that is consistently being underreported: Russia.

A 🧵

(potentially with 🖍️) And in the UK - we have to recognise that Russia, and her actions, are the NUMBER ONE strategic threat that we face.
Mar 7, 2024 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Snuck into the budget is something that you won’t hear on the news … UK Defence Spending was cut.
Image
Image We have a land war in Europe that is about the eastern boundary of Europe.
Jan 31, 2024 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The US has got a problem in the Middle East

A short thread Last week’s thread
Jan 24, 2024 • 24 tweets • 3 min read
This is the first of several 🧵 on the strategic challenges facing the world ….

First up … the Middle East. The most acute challenge is obviously Gaza-Palestine.