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Mike Martin MP 🔸 Profile picture
Mike Martin MP 🔸
@ThreshedThought
MP for Tunbridge Wells - Defence Select Ctte - Joint Nat Sec Strategy Ctte - Sn Visiting Fellow @warstudies - Author on Conflict (https://t.co/0KsGBXhxky)
84 subscribers
Dec 9 • 42 tweets • 6 min read
The last week has seem some momentous changes in Syria.

Here are some first thoughts.

A 🧵 Firstly, we should see the fall of the House of Assad as a function of a weak and rotten Syrian government, and stretched and weakened allies of Iran and Russia - more than HTS or any other rebel movement becoming vastly more competent.
Nov 25 • 36 tweets • 4 min read
Let’s take a look at the economic side of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A 🧵 Once wars go beyond a couple of months, they tend to become a battle of the economies—that is, who is will to turn a bigger part of their economy into a machine that produces arms and munitions.
Nov 18 • 29 tweets • 4 min read
The US has decided to allow Ukraine to use longer-range missiles in Russia.

This brings to a close a pretty feckless period of US policy towards Ukraine.

A 🧵 It’s quite hard to even work out what the White House is trying to do these days, apart from vainly responding to events.

Let’s dig into it.
Nov 12 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
Trump and the UK Strategic Defence Review

A 🪡

(Will there be 🖍️s?) In the aftermath of Trump’s reelection I tweeted that there were a few things that the UK needed to get onto pronto:
Oct 29 • 24 tweets • 4 min read
There is a lot going on in the news at the moment, but there is a story that is consistently being underreported: Russia.

A 🧵

(potentially with 🖍️) And in the UK - we have to recognise that Russia, and her actions, are the NUMBER ONE strategic threat that we face.
Mar 7 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Snuck into the budget is something that you won’t hear on the news … UK Defence Spending was cut.
Image
Image We have a land war in Europe that is about the eastern boundary of Europe.
Jan 31 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The US has got a problem in the Middle East

A short thread Last week’s thread
Jan 24 • 24 tweets • 3 min read
This is the first of several 🧵 on the strategic challenges facing the world ….

First up … the Middle East. The most acute challenge is obviously Gaza-Palestine.
Jan 4 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
I wonder whether historians in 2100 will look at 2024 as a geopolitical inflection point…

A thread. There are a number of different themes/areas/trends now starting to come together.
Sep 24, 2023 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
There’s been a fair bit of movement in Ukraine - here is a round up and summary of what it means for the strategic environment.

🖍️ In the last few week days, we have had three big reports:

- A Ukr breakthrough in the South by Verbove
- Further progress around Bahkmut in the East
- A large number of Ukr strikes in Crimea.

These add up to a sum that is more than the parts.
Aug 28, 2023 • 39 tweets • 6 min read
Ok. Now that Ukraine has taken the settlement of Robotyne, what does this mean for the wider strategic environment?

Short version: there better be some movement soon, or time will run out. Image As we all know, Ukraine is launching a general offensive on Russian positions in four broad areas. Image
Aug 23, 2023 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Prighozin dead.

Hmmm. That opens up a few pathways forward. Firstly. This was always going to happen.

After the coup in June either Putin or Priggo had to die. It wasn’t just going to rumble on.
Aug 15, 2023 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
Time for another brief update as to what has happened in the last two weeks in Ukraine. Image That image by the way is from a thread months ago - but the basic strategy hasn’t changed.
Jul 30, 2023 • 30 tweets • 5 min read
I’ve been having a bit of a deep dive into the Ukrainian offensive.

The main message is:

KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON đź’Ş This offensive started in June and has had a couple of phases.
Jul 27, 2023 • 6 tweets • 1 min read
The coup in Niger is yet another canary in the Sahel that we will miss and/or ignore.

This is a region that’s population is on track to double by 2050, whilst also warning at double the global average.

This is the crisis that we will be grappling with come 2030 Russian flags all over Niamey.
Jun 25, 2023 • 13 tweets • 2 min read
Some thoughts on the last couple of days in Russia and Ukraine Firstly, and most obviously, we do not know the deal that was cut to get Prigo to turn back from Moscow.

He seems to have acted against his own interests, and so it seems likely that this is not over.
Jun 23, 2023 • 14 tweets • 1 min read
Ok. Looks like we have a coup happening in Russia Clearly the Ukrainians are going to take advantage of this. I’d watch for some big gains.
Jun 8, 2023 • 36 tweets • 5 min read
NEW Ukr counteroffensive thread.

Liberal Crayons Old thread here. Covers extensive shaping operations.
Jun 6, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
🚨Major News 🚨 The Nova Kakhovka hydro-electric dam on the Dnipro River has lost a huge section emptying a massive reservoir. Image
Jun 4, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Why don’t people respond to letters? I wrote to David Brazier @KentHighways two weeks ago asking him to urgently reconsider the 6 week closure of Pembury Road in Tunbridge Wells, and at the very least to give more information to local residents (who have received next to nothing by way of explanation). Image
May 11, 2023 • 57 tweets • 8 min read
Ukraine counteroffensive thread This may be a long thread.

(Sorry the previous ones got disrupted by our stunning victory in the recent Tunbridge Wells local elections).