Thread by @lorenzokamel

Back in 1989, Janet Abu-Lughod predicted that the era of Western hegemony would have been superseded by “a return to the relative balance of multiple centers exhibited in the 13th-century world system”.
🧵 on my #new article for @TheNatlInterest:
nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/has-…

It might be too early to assess to what extent Abu-Lughod’s predictions hold true, but it does not seem far-fetched to claim that future generations will consider the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war as one of the meaningful moments in the #shift of the power balance from West to East

#Rebalancing between major international powers has always been accompanied by massive and epoch-marking forms of #violence: our tragic present is, in this sense, destined to last in time. However, there are some #clear #differences in comparison to previous historical eras.

Besides demography: #climatechange, the impoverishment of biodiversity, and the disruption of natural habitats. These are not unpredictable outlier events, – or Taleb’s “black swans” – but tangible ongoing processes: each of them will play a huge role in redefining global orders

Yet, to date, climate-related concerns are far from being able to shape #global_orders.
Instead, the idea of “#spheres_of_influence”, i.e. “international formations that contain one nation (the influencer) that commands superior power over others”, continue to play the #key role

Over the past 70yrs, this doctrine, which warned external powers that US would not have tolerated the interference of any external power in “#American #affairs”, influenced much of policies implemented by Washington in "its" closest #sphere_of_influence.
peoplesworld.org/article/washin…

dozens of governments in Central and South America have historically been #overthrown and/or #bombed by successive U.S. administrations also, if not above all, on the basis of such claim and mindset. miscellanynews.org/2021/04/07/opi…

#Cuba, which back in 1950 had the #5th #highest per capita income in the Western hemisphere, is possibly the most interesting example of how the concept of “sphere of influence” has been conceptualized and imposed in the #AmericanContinent. hir.harvard.edu/a-dilemma-in-p…

Particularly in the case of the U.S., – which has over 750 military bases in 80 world countries (that is, 85% of #all #overseas #military #bases) – the “spheres of influence” extend far beyond its continent.

A meaningful percentage of the #African and #Asian states or political leaders which, in recent decades, have tried to tackle such ascendancy were either militarily #attacked and #ousted, or #isolated and #boycotted.

It's a sort of pattern which has been consistently fueled by slogans that have often spoken to the “gut”—i.e. the instincts—of millions of people:
“it's the battle between #good_and_evil, “they hate us cause of #ourValues”, or, mutatis mutandis, “we're facing the end of history”

And yet, beside stressing the firm condemnation of any aggression against a foreign state, – be it Ukraine, Iraq or Yemen – it is necessary to #always #reject the #legitimacy of the #spheres of #influence, both “ours” and the ones of the “others”, whoever our “other” is.

On the one hand, this reminds us the need to embrace a #more #coherent #understanding of global politics, and, on the other, is a further confirm that the “Atlantic world order” is no longer #sustainable, in as much as it is increasingly resented/rejected by a vast % of humanity

This is also the reason why #Africa’s countries (1.2 billion people), #India (1.4 billion) and #China (1.4 billion) did not join the Western countries in imposing sanctions on #Russia over its criminal and #nefarious #invasion of #Ukraine.

The tortuous process of rapprochement btwn the 2 world’s most populous countries—confirmed by the visit of Chinese FM Wang Yi to NewDelhi on March 24—as well as #Iran’s alignment of interests with those of China, mirror 2 of the latest ex. of new raising geopolitical equilibria

..and the attempt to foster a “#selective #re_globalisation”, i.e. a macro-regional reconfiguration of world economy with the aim to #dilute the dominance of the US $, and to #mitigate the reciprocal sanctions imposed by leading economies on the ongoing geopolitical tensions.

While aware that the one unfolding in Ukraine is an #illegal/#immoral invasion, most Asian capitals regard the conflict, in the words of Indian analyst Shivshankar Menon, as a war “over the #European #security_order—#not an epochal #global conflagration” foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…

More in general, political representatives of most of world population (not just “some autocratic countries”) are increasingly critical toward the global financial system (95% of global reserves are held in #WesternCurrencies) and require a #rethinking of international relations

Today, the most meaningful change is possibly the fact that a growing number of Western observers are finally becoming #aware of the #end of an “#order” which, in Andrew J. Bacevich’s words, “existed mostly in the minds of Western observers rather than the #real #world”.

In the real world, or the one that is taking shape, #coherence and “#whataboutism” are not the same. In other words, #the #problem #are #not #those who firmly condemn #all spheres of influence, all forms of “permanent security”, and all aggressions (be it Ukraine, Iraq or Yemen)

The problem are instead those who use clear and #harsh #terms #only when spheres of influence, geopolitical orders and wars touch #their_interests, and #cherry-pick what #outrages them.
#end
#ubuntu