A brief thread on the political economy of the war and why what has happened since the invasion has also destroyed any strategy the Russians might have had. Clearly the Putin government miscalculated on what sanctions Russia will face.
Maybe a greater miscalculation was about how the invasion would basically politically transform Ukraine in NATO/EU eyes to such a degree that they will basically make sure Ukraine gets what it needs economically to function, freeing Ukraine up to fight the war.
Ukraine is now asking for their economy to be kept afloat as they fight the war, and so far the signs (above) are they will get what they need. atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainea…
Ukrainian finance minister coming to the US next week to negotiate the needed economic support. Pretty sure the package he receives will be generous. reuters.com/world/ukraines…
Much of the impetus to keep the Ukrainian economy functioning, not just providing military aid, comes because of the political fallout from the deliberate Russian policy of committing mass war crimes. This has politically meant that NATO/EU countries can up their support.
Means that Ukraine can fight the war with vry different economic concerns than Russia. A big advantage. Putin has to worry about keeping the Russians happy after promising easy victories. Ukraine has a population already sacrificing hugely, and who will get major economic support
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