Ukrainian counterattack and how it will basically choke off any large Russian offensive in the Donbas unless the Russians move very quickly to regain road access to the front. See map next tweet.
The reports of Ukrainian counterattacks yesterday show the total understanding of logistics and supply that the Ukrainian armed forces possess. Here is a map where the locations of two of the counterattacks are in red.
Ukrainians are attacking two ways, out of Kharkiv/Chuhuiv to cut Russian roads from the west and out of the south towards Borova to cut roads from the southeast. Here is a map of Borova move.
If the Ukrainians can hold, or even expand these attacks, basically the entire Russian force in Izyum, which was said to be up to 22 BTGs, is completely reliant on one road network to get everything it needs. I’ve used google maps to highlight it.
If the Ukrainians can hold, or even expand these attacks, basically the entire Russian force in Izyum, which was said to be up to 22 BTGs, is completely reliant on one road network to get everything it needs. I’ve used google maps to highlight it.
That road is now a constant target for Ukrainian ranged weapons (which is why they’ve been requesting them more and more). Artillery fire and UAVs can hit targets up and down them. Basically the Ukrainians have compressed the Russians into a pocket.
There is no way that a large force of BTGs can get everything it needs down one crappy road system that will be under constant fire. It needs fuel, ammunition, food, spare parts, replacement soldiers, etc. in an offensive you gobble up supplies.
Long story short. Unless the Russians expend real force to retake what they’ve lost, their army is more likely to be ‘fixed’ in and Izyum pocket than to ‘fix’ the Ukrainians in the Donbas. Moreover the Russians will have to move fast. Once supplies run low their options dwindle.
The next few days could determine the outcome of the war.
Btw, good luck driving from Belgorod to Izyum in 5 hours and 34 minutes as google maps suggests. Might take 5 days, if you got through alive.
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