Thread by @ArtIntelFan

There is much more to the Bryansk fire mystery…half a dozen Russian oligarchs are dead some within 24 hours of each other…multiple fires deep inside Russia out of Ukraine’s reach…Russians evacuating Bryansk days before the fires… lets go through some of the signs & wonders 1/

3 possible causes: Russian arson, Russian false flag, Ukrainian operation. Other possible options? Here is what we know so far ... 2/

There have been 3 RECENT fires already, as follows: 1) Air-Space Defense Research Institute in Tver, 180km NW of Moscow; 2) Dmitrievsky chemical plant in the city of Kineshma, 950km from Ukraine; 3) Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation Energia in, well, Korolev, Russia. 3/

Russian oligarchs are dying, some within 24 hours of each other. Why are they suddenly committing suicide? 4/ newsweek.com/every-russian-…

Before the Bryansk attack, there were at least two posts suggesting something was about to happen. This is one talks about Ukrainian wrecks being transported to, among other places, Bryansk for ... 5/

And then from a Facebook posts several days ago, we have a heads-up from a journalist about Russian military evacuating their loved ones away from Bryansk, had to be "carefully hidden", done on the down-low. The post is still available. 6/ facebook.com/10000069841648…

Now it seems to have been well known that Bryansk is were Russian armor is being refurbished, and this could be the Ukrainian target. That may be so, but what is burning is apparently not armor, but oil facilities. Surely Bryansk's oil industry was known long ago, but why now? 7/

So we have 3 possibilities: Ukraine did it, Russia did it-false flag, Russia-sabotage, or... accident (again). Bryansk is between 100 to less than 150km away from Ukrainian border. Artillery can't reach it... but ... 8/

... a modified Totchka-U could reach 120km, so just at the edge of its range. Russia has already once before blamed Ukraine for firing a Totchka-U missile. republicworld.com/world-news/rus…

Assuming it was a UKR operation and we are trying to figure out what means they have, would it be plausible with their Mi-24s? It has a range of 450km, so it could maybe do that long roundtrip. Would Russian air defense allow it though? Well, Belgorod defbrief.com/2022/04/01/ukr…

There are other options for UKR, aircraft! Jets, TB2 UCAV, maybe loitering munition. But 2 questions: 1) Russian air defense that easily penetrated? And, 2) Why would a UKR journalist let the cat out of the bag days before a UKR operation? Wouldn't they want to keep surprise? 11/

If not a UKR operation, could it be a Russian false flag? It would not out of character (eg. Shelling of Mainila). And guess what, there has been something along these lines reported before, Klimovo, which is, guess what, in Bryansk Oblast!

Others have opined that it couldn't possibly be a false flag, the damage is too severe for a casus belli. One can generate enough sympathy with a strike that does not reduce war fighting capacity while inducing widespread hysteria: like striking a quiet hamlet would. 13/

So, we know there have been at least 3 seriously damaging fires before, too far for it to be linked to Ukraine. We also know a UKR journalist let the cat out of the bag days ago (re Russia military evacuations). So, while possible, perhaps improbable this is a UKR operation. 14/

Due to the extent of the damages and the possible severity of the consequences, many find it hard to believe this is a false flag. Could all the 3 fires, plus this Bryansk attack, if they're linked in some form, be sabotage? 15/

Sabotage is an interesting hypothesis, with very interesting possible consequences. Is there a link between these fires and the Bryant attacks with the oligarch deaths? 16/

If sabotage, do we have enough grounds to speculate that there is a coordinated insurgency now going on inside Russia? What are the implications of this line of thinking? What a lovely mystery! 17/

One last option, another accident! We have a quote that goes like this: One is an accident, two a coincidence, but three...? Russia news agency has acknowledged the Bryansk fire, but only silence about the cause. 18/ edition.cnn.com/europe/live-ne…

What else do we know? We have the geolocation, and initial description of the target (oil depot, oil refinery). 19/

There are multiple fires, and many video feeds. This one seems particularly close, you can see various above ground tanks. 20/

There are reports that the damage may not be limited to military implications, it may have wider economic and energy security implications. Do we know that the Druzhba pipeline operations remain unharmed? The Druzhba pipeline can be important to Europe.21/

This video reportedly in Bryansk. This video suggests a missile strike. 22/

What else is going on in Bryansk? This attack on the railroad. 23/

A closer look at the broken rail. Accident? 24/

So, circling back to the start, Ukraine? False flag? Or sabotage? A combination? I'll close with this tweet from Igor. His take? Sabotage! If he is right, we should have a thread on what this means for Russia and for Ukraine. 25/end

If you're curious on the overall status of the #UkraineWar, with a focus on the situation inside #Ukraine, I have a short thread that provides an overview of where things stand for now. It has maps!

I wanted to add another hypothesis. A Russian source on Telegram recently reported that FSB arrested some members of a pro-Ukraine "neo-nazi" organization operating in Russia. Even if we discount that the FSB achieved anything, it does indicate that...

... there is at least one pro-Kyiv organization operating inside Russia (that is targeted by Moscow). This is interesting! If there is sabotage going on in Russia, we now have two possible sources: discontented Russians on the verge of rebellion or pro-Kyiv organized group(s).

Hopefully it is okay to add to this thread. I want to say thank you to you my readers for your amazing response to this thread. Thank you! While focused on the events inside Ukraine, events in Russia intrigued me. I was curious why but …

…no one answer was clean cut (at the time I posted the thread), so I wanted us to explore the possibilities. Maybe I connected dots to “see” a non-existing pattern, or maybe it was time for us to unearth hidden patterns? The resulting diversity of your responses is enlightening.

Thank you for your engagement, all in good cheer, for the eventual victory of Ukraine. I may add some more tweets relevant to our thread. Again, thank you!

Now we have mainstream media, the BBC. "Was it a Ukrainian strike? Was it sabotage? Neither Kyiv nor Moscow are saying."

About an oligarchs death. I'll add the translation.

Dmitri's translation.

Inside Russia. What is even more interesting is the attempt to propagate it through social media. Will it catch on?