Thread by @EliotACohen

If it is true that General Gerasimov is assuming direct command of combat operations in Ukraine from a forward headquarters there are, as ever, two possibilities. 1/6

The first is that as the Russians launch the decisive maneuver(s) of the war, they want their very best field commander to complete these heroic tasks, orchestrating fire and maneuver, land air and sea as only a superb field commander can. And obviously, he’s the best! 2/6

The second is that maybe he is not the reincarnation of Suvorov, Zhukov, etc. but a guy who has been the top staff job for over a decade. And things are going badly. Maybe very badly. Or at least potentially very badly. 3/6

One cannot blame the Boss for having launched this incredibly stupid war that will leave Russia weakened, isolated, with a stronger and larger NATO on its doorstep, particularly if you lose it to those Ukrainian peasants! 4/6

So you send the Chief of the General Staff to the front with the message, “Fix this or don’t come home.” You now have a really good person to blame (nobody has ever heard of Dvornikov anyway). And at this point, you’re not worried about a successful general launching a coup. 5/6

…because this thing may be an epic disaster. So you need a really good scapegoat. As always truth may well lie somewhere in between, but I bet on #2. No reason to think Gerasimov is, in fact, likely to be a skilled theater commander plus issues @WarintheFuture points out. 6/6

…and now, to top it all, the Ukrainians may/may have winged him when they hit another headquarters killing at least one major general. Would he have been getting that far forward if things were going well? I doubt it. 1/5

The one dark result of this, though, is that the Russians may very well assume the US fed the Ukrainians the information to hit that headquarters while he was visiting. They will be, if possible, even more humiliated and furious. 2/5

Despite all the gallows humor going about (see my favorite, @DarthPutinKGB) the problem is that if there is one thing calculated to drive Russian leadership crazy it is being laughed at. Hated, no problem; feared, even better, but looking like a bad joke? 3/5

And, to make it all worse, this may drive them even further to the conclusion (a reasonable one) that the Ukrainians are providing the troops, but that behind them are the vast economic, military industrial and intelligence resources of the West. 4/5

One would hope that would drive Russia to look for a way out before it turns really terrible for them. But unfortunately, it seems likelier that they will double down on reckless/stupid/bloodthirsty/vicious. And Russia will suffer far more loss and humiliation as a result. 5/5