Thread by @tomiahonen

Mappy Thread About NATO 1/

Today Finnish government announced intent to apply to NATO (Finnish Parliament will vote on it likely already Monday). Sweden will also apply. Both will be welcomed with open arms at NATO

There is talk of NATO-Russian border doubling. Let's do Thread

Mappy Thread About NATO 2/

The current border between NATO and Russia is about 1,000 km (600 miles) and when Finland joins NATO, Finland adds 1,200 km (800 miles) to that border. It sounds like the border does double. But actually, it is FAR FAR FAR worse for Russia than that...

Mappy Thread About NATO 3/

So to be clear, the stories you read are true. They just are misleading, in how bad it is for Russia. Reality is FAR FAR worse than doubling of the border

Let's start with Kaliningrad

Kalina-whatingrad? Yes. This bit on the map:

Mappy Thread About NATO 4/

Kaliningrad (in red on left) is part of Russia, but not connected to the rest of Russia.

It is like Alaska is not connected to continental USA, it is on other side of Canada

Or how Gibraltar belongs to Britain, but sits on the Southern tip of Spain.

Mappy Thread About NATO 5/

Of Russia's border with NATO, about 400 km (250 miles) is the Kaliningrad borders with Poland and Lithuania. These are technically borders between NATO and Russia, but in a war, this area would immediately be surrounded

Mappy Thread About NATO 6/

Because there is no land access from Russia to Kaliningrad, in time of war with NATO, it would not be a strategic opportunity for Russia to stage attack against NATO. It would be surrounded and blocked, not unlike how Mariupol was in Ukraine war

Mappy Thread About NATO 7/

In case of 'invasion' one way or the other, in a prolonged war between NATO & Russia, the relevant border is the rest of the border with NATO, not this enclave of Kaliningrad. Instead of 1,000 km, we now have 600 km to consider. Next look at Lapland..

Mappy Thread About NATO 8/

Up North, in Lapland, Norway (=NATO) & Russia share about 150km of a border. This crooked borderline (red line) follows a river. But if you come 200km (120 miles) West from border, the narrow point is just 30km (20 miles) across (blue dotted line).

Mappy Thread About NATO 9/

If there was a (prolonged) war between Russia & NATO, actual frontier would be this narrow point, 30 km wide (20 miles) rather than that snaky riverbed, in very difficult area that Norway/NATO could not hope to defend. The narrow passage EASY to defend

Mappy Thread About NATO 10/

So while it is true, that currently NATO has about 1,000 km of border with Russia, the militarily relevant border is only 30km up in Norway, plus about 450km at Estonia & Latvia bordering directly Russia.

Mappy Thread About NATO 11/

If Russia sees actual militarily relevant border going from 480km adding Finland 1,200km plus making the Norwegian part now count fully, it goes to 480+1,200+120 = 1,800 km. The border does not double, it quadruples in size

Mappy Thread About NATO 12/

The military headache to paranoid Russian Generals who always fear that Germany and Britain will attack them again (often with France, and recently adding USA) - now their 'safe' border is suddenly expanding FOUR-FOLD. No wonder they are freaking out

Part 2 is up

After looking at the simplistic land border DISTANCE matter there is something far more serious for Russian military ambitions: the sea lanes.

Part 2 of our mappy things Threads looks at how the Baltic changes for NATO with Finland & Sweden