Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture
Prof Operational Research @UCL_CORU, health care, women in STEM. Member of @independentsage. Tweets personal. chrischirp at bluesky. https://t.co/nNW5zMenx2

May 17, 2022, 10 tweets

Quick thread on long covid & workforce & why it matters:

Today UK report lowest unemployment for 50 years - fair to say there is a labour shortage here right now.

But part of low unemployment is simply that we have *fewer* people to work cos of long term ill health 1/8

Long term sickness is higher than expected (350,000 people) and the Bank of England last week particularly highlighted Long Covid.

Women more likely to be not seeking work cos of sickness than men - consistent with Long Covid which affects women more often 2/8

The 350,000 people reported by the Bank of England is very similar to the 346,000 people ONS estimates as living with Long Covid that affects their day-to-day activities a lot. (it won't be a direct overlap though) 3/8

And Long Covid does not resolve quickly for a lot of people - ONS estimates almost 800,000 have had symptoms for more than a year.

So more and more people with Long Covid can lead a signifcant number ending up no longer being able to work. 4/8

It's not a problem entirely solved by highly vaccinated population or Omicron though - over 400,000 people developed Long Covid from Omicron (and that's not including the big March wave!). 5/8

While vaccination is protective against Long Covid (cuts risks by maybe about half, hopefully reduces duration but not enough data yet), ONS nonetheless estimate that about 6% of people developed activity-limiting long covid after 3 vax doses from 1st Omicron infection. 6/8

The reason I'm doing *yet another thread* on this is because a new wave is on its way. And while it may not cause mass hospitalisations, it will likely cause another wave of long covid.

Even ignoring the impact on individuals, we can't keep stressing our workforce like this 7/8

We should take preventative measures - clean air indoors, hybrid working where possible esp during waves, mandating high quality masks when new variants emerge / cases high, *support* people to stay home if positive.

One practical way is the pledge! 8/8
covidpledge.co.uk

PS this thread from @dgurdasani1 also v worth reading on similar vein.

should read 5%!

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