On or about 9 April, as RU claimed they were entering "phase 2," I mentioned we'd start seeing a different sort of combat.
Arty barrages, recon in force (RIF) & attempted breakthrough by RU...w/ hasty defense, counterattacks & some withdrawals by UA.
What's happening? A 🧵 1/9
Some analysts have called this a "stalemate." Ive attempted to avoid that phrase, because there is LOTS going on.
RU is, as predicted, attempting to use their artillery to open up the front line. They follow w/ small units doing RIF, if they see advantage they push through.2/
RU sees some success, destroy some cities, gain some ground. In a few cases, they've been able to reinforce w/ larger units.
RU is forcing bridgeheads across rivers & key logistics hubs that will allow them to force further attacks.
Key terrain & log support: Critical. 3/ t
Make no mistake, UA is fighting back. Hard.
As I said 4/9, UA must be mobile, agile, & strong.
Counterfire now a factor. Mobile reserves & quick reaction force important to "plug holes." Counterattacks (especially vs river crossings) required, but must be timed precisely. 4/
Other factors starting to play a part:
RU is bringing in regenerated forces (& old T62 tanks) to secure gains in cities. But they must now play for the "long haul." Not good.
UA gets new weapons daily, but they're fatigued on E front & must now conduct guerilla/SOF fight. 5/
Near Kharkiv, RU are improving defense, bringing in Air Defense, relocating regenerated forces. That fight has drained them, much like Kyiv.
Near Izyum, RU are trying to resume the offensive & are relocating forces near Slovyansk & attacking several cities. Also draining. 6/
In Donetsk, RU attacks toward Lyman & Sieveronetsk, needing river crossings. Proving difficult so far for them, but it appears their main effort. I'm watching this closely.
The UA is, so far, countering & repulsing these attacks.
Fighting is tough. NOT a stalemate. 7/
While I wont get into it, I'd add...the UA is also concerned about RU secondary efforts in the south (continued attempts at the S. supply line between Rostov to Kherson and Crimea) & especially the threats against Mykoloaiv & Odesa remain.
There is still a RU Navy threat. 8/
The Ukrainian political leadership - as well as the UA generalship & mid-small unit leadership - is proving itself.
While there are tough fight ahead, and there will be UA battlefield defeats & victories, I believe few RU advances in the E will turn out to be significant. 9/9
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