WRT national security & global threats, an extremely dangerous time re US "foes." -Massive Russian strikes in Ukraine -Georgia's "frozen conflict" heating up. -Moldova dealing with Russian troops in Transnistria -Russian economy collapsing...due to Putin's wars --Assad flees to Russia 1/4 -China intimidates Philippines, assaults Hong Kong's autonomy, represses Tibet & Xinjiang, threatens Taiwan, blocks international trade routes -N. Korea troops & weapons in Russia, increases missile capabilities -Hamas destroyed, but Hezbollah, IJ, MB & the Africa terror groups still active. 2/4

It's interesting & emotional that @VP will be spending election night at her alma mater @HowardU in Washington, D.C.

A beautiful campus, an excellent institute of higher learning...

...and one that is connected to my own alma mater, @WestPoint_USMA

How so? A short 🧵 1/ Howard U. is name after one of its founder & its first university president, Oliver Otis Howard.

An 1850 graduate of Maine's Bowdoin College at the age of 19, Howard entered & became a member of the class of 1854 at West Point.

He graduated 4th in his class of 46 cadets. 2/

Today, I remembered a couple of Iraqis I met during my last deployment in 2007-8, during the surge

It had to do with trust, confidence...and voting.

A short 🧵 1/10
The 1st was Muhammed, the man in the white thobe.

The battalion commander in the area asked me to come meet him, as Muhammed had been an insurgent who pledged allegiance to the new Iraqi government.

A fascinating guy. Spoke good English, had been a university student. 2/

Watching the Israeli operations in S. Lebanon today, as the IDF releases numerous photos of arms caches found in & near homes. 1/7

These are similar to what US forces found throughout Iraq when we were there.

Using civilian locations provides terror organizations w/ unique advantages:
- difficult to find
- difficult to target
- when found, striking/destroying results in civilian casualties. 2/

During a break in an MBA leadership class, a student asked me: What's it like serving in government, and what did you do to keep yourself fired up?

A thread 🧵 1/11 My response?

Sometimes it's tough - especially during deployments & the tough times being away from family.

But the vast majority of the people you work with, and the things you get to do, make it all worthwhile. 2/

A few thoughts on what occurred in two different conflicts yesterday...the use of "killer pagers" by Israel and Ukraine's attack on the large ammo cache at Toropets military base 300+ miles inside Russia.

A short 🧵 1/12 First, the pagers.

In this article (gifted) from the @nytimes, the author claims there "no clear strategy" for this coordinated attack.

I disagree. Having used electronic & signals countermeasures in Iraq, the strategy is clear. 2/

nytimes.com/2024/09/18/wor…

On a daily basis during my time in command of Army forces in Europe, every day the intelligence "black book" would provide more information on Putin's Russia attempts at malign influence against the west...and especially against the US.

Today, the @TheJusticeDept has taken action...but because of current divisions in the US, many Americans will have questions.

So let's talk about it...

A thread 🧵 1/12 During my service in Europe, I saw intelligence on:
-Rusian acts of sabotage within allied governments
-The creation of "frozen conflicts" w/in the territorial integrity of nations (including Moldova, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia/Azerbaijan, two of the three Baltic countries, and the Balkans)
-the stoking & support of migration & human trafficking
-malicious cyber activities against whole of governments (most egregious example was Estonia)
-disinformation campaigns and election interference
-attempted and successful assassinations on foreign soil. 2/

Woke up to several texts from journalists asking my thoughts on "West Point dropping duty, honor, country from their motto?" and one wrote "does this mean the Academy has gone 'woke'?"

My first thought: "let me get a cup of coffee before addressing this craziness."

A 🧵 1/9 This week, graduates received a letter from LTG Steve Gilland -the Superintendent (the USMA college president)- of @WestPoint_USMA informing of changes in the MISSION STATEMENT (NOT the motto).

The letter specifically said the MOTTO "Duty, Honor, Country" has NOT changed. 2/

"Logistics determine the art of the possible."

Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.

Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).

A 🧵 1/9 "Logistics determine the art of the possible."

Many of you have heard me say this multiple times with respect to the war in Ukraine.

Now we'll start seeing the same in Gaza with JLTOTS pronounced "Jay-Lots" for the media).

A 🧵 1/9

On 24 Feb 2022, I scribbled some thoughts about what I believed were Putin's strategic objectives in invading Ukraine (see chart).

In the 1st 18 months of the conflict, Ukraines' action, NATO collaboration & US support caused him to fail.

We're at an inflection point. A 🧵1/ Addressing each:
1. Zelenskyy is still strong
2. Ukraine's army is still fighting
3. Ukraine's population is resilient
4. Ru does not control the Black sea ports
5. The west - especially the US - has returned to being divided, and NATO may now take fewer risks. 2/

Many US media outlets proclaiming "Zelenskyy sacks Zaluzhnyi" or "Zaluzhnyi fired!"

I don't see it that way.

Allow me to provide some context. A 🧵

1/

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1755636351364440209

GEN Zaluzhnyi is 51 y.o., extremely young for a Commander of any nation's Armed Forces. Most 4-star generals are in their 60's with much more experience.

Since Feb '22 he's been the tactical, opn'l & strategic leader of the toughest fight we've seen in the 21st century. 2/

Expanding on what I said on @CNN this morning.

Deterrence defined: The action or actions used to discourage an event by means of instilling doubt or fear of the consequences over time.

Many say deterrence against Iran & its proxies is failing.

It's too early to tell. 1/8 DETERRENCE is one technique that MAY contribute to national security strategy.

Some define strategy as the use of different MEANS in specific WAYS to reach on END STATE or OBJECTIVE.

I agree with that definition...and it's sorta like deterrence. 2/

This afternoon I had a conversation w/ a very savvy Jewish journalist. We were talking about the films we’ve both seen of Hamas atrocities.

The horrific murders, the beheadings, child rapes, burning of bound mothers & children…all filmed on GoPro cameras & distributed. 1/11 She was shocked when I said I had seen many of these acts before. Al Qaida, ISIS & even Russian soldiers

It’s part of the playbook of intimidation w/ the message: this is our land, you don’t belong!

It’s a technique from past centuries. 2/

Flying to NYC to be w/ @CNN in my role as military analyst next week.

Praying for strength to address this war & help others gain insight. But like the war in Ukraine, it is always very difficult.

Because having seen & studied war, I know about fighting.

But…1/4 …what’s hard is not being on the field, yet trying to explain battles & operations and the horrific associated civilian suffering & death, criminal acts & terrorism.

These 2 wars - Ukraine & Israel - require tough decisions & hard calls by leaders in govt & military. 2/

A short 🧵

On 21 Feb '22, @CNN asked me to come to NY for the potential start of RU's invasion of Ukraine.

To do the job as military analyst, I knew I had to first link Putin's political objectives to his general's military operations. I scribbled this list on the flight: 1/7 I did the same for Zelenskyy (below) & then started to consider what would be the resulting operations from both sides.

Putin's political objectives were too ambitious for his force...and Zelenskyy had a competent force that would need a lot of help. 2/

Having had the great fortune of spending 16 years in overseas locations during a 38 year military career, I always think of how US current events are seen from the perspective of our allies, partners & foes.

A short 🧵 on those thoughts. 1/9 Serving 12 yrs in EU, 3 yrs in the ME, & many non-consecutive months in Asia & S. America, it seemed most -not all- foreign views of the US, what we claim we stand for & believe in, were positive.

To be sure, there are a few ugly Americans who besmirch our reputation. 2/

After boneheaded comments by 'anonymous sources' & commentary by mostly uninformed who have never seen combat, there's been increasing back-and-forth about how @NATO shouldn't "lecture" Ukraine's army on anything re their offensive.

IMHO, none of this is helpful. A 🧵1/13

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1697139679366127927

The conversations between senior military leaders is likely a lot different than what's reported.

In my experience, these exchanges - in combat & in training - are extremely helpful. I'm sure GEN Zaluzhnyi is thankful for the support. 2/

mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrain…

The Marshall Center’s @andrewmichta is absolutely correct on this.

The “pivot to Asia” commentary was a mistake made during the Obama admin, and we should avoid it at all costs. It not only gives options to our foes/competitors, it confuses our allies & partners. 1/4

https://twitter.com/andrewmichta/status/1694706530703282606

I happened to be in Tblisi for a visit with my Georgian counterpart in 2012 when @StateDept first messaged that term. The 🇬🇪 President called me to his office and asked what “pivot” from Europe meant.

It was a tense conversation. 2/

Since the start of the Russia invasion, I believed Ukraine would persevere. That hasn’t changed, though the battlefield conditions have.

Recently, many have reported “slow movement,” “stumbling,” “lack of success,” of UAF, from those unfamiliar with operational details. 1/ By “operational details,” I mean conditions of the battlefield…those things that affect gaining ground or achieving success by a force.

Often times in combat, units take 3 steps forward, 2 back.

I know this from personal experience. 2/

On @CNN today, @VictorBlackwell surprisingly asked about the state of the Peace Conference being held in KSA.

This conference hasn't received much coverage but it is important to Ukraine's future...it should guide those offering thoughts on what will bring peace to UKR. 1/ Over 40 countries participated (Russia wasn't invited). Unlike most "peace conferences" this gathering allowed @ZelenskyyUa to inform and garner support for his 10- point plan while addressing issues of global order.

@Reuters outlines the strategy.2/
reuters.com/world/ukraine-…

After @biden's tough call to provide Ukraine with 100s of 1000's of rounds of cluster munitions, Ukrainian MOD @oleksiireznikov provides rationale & assurances (in 5 statements) of how they will be used.

But the debate continues, as some US senators now question that call. 1/8

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1677410470108471298

Reznikov's 5 principles:
-only used for "deoccupation" of UKR territory
-won't use in urban areas (unlike Russians)
-UAF will keep records of where rounds are fired
-those areas will be "prioritized" for de-mining after the war
-UKR will report effectiveness to allies. 2/