Thread by @RobJCurley

I had a reply guy jump in my comments today defending bad housing policy - and put the onus on me to solve the housing crisis - so here goes.

In order to solve the #HousingCrisis we need to understand it is in fact a #HousingPolicyCrisis

1/22

Short timeline:

2008 global crash w an added property speculation bubble (largely driven by FF policy) which bursts in Ireland.

Country goes bankrupt, land ends up in NAMA.

Under FG/ Labour gov to follow much of this land is flogged off to get it off the balance books.

2/22

Much of this land ends up in the hands of speculators & vulture funds brought in by FG while part of a FG/ Lab coalition.

2015 Minister of Environment @alankellylabour brings in Section 28(c) of the Planning Act which allows the Minister to make diktats over housing policy.
3/22

Alan Kelly brings in new apartment guidelines reducing standards from 2007 & we have our first mention of “build-to-let housing for mobile workers” (wonder where he got that language).

Kelly soon succeeded by @simoncoveney who brings in Strategic Housing Developments (SHDs)
4/22

This allows large scale developments of 100+ units to bypass local authorities & go straight to An Bord Pleanála. (The head of ABP’s SHD division since 2017 is a close personal friend of Coveney). 100 units becomes target for new developments incl on many unsuitable sites.

5/22

Coveney succeeded by wunderkind @MurphyEoghan who reduces design standards for new apartments in 2018 & brings in “new & exciting” forms of housing such as “co-living” & “build-to-rent” for “young & increasingly internationally mobile workers (sounds familiar doesn’t it?)

6/22

Murphy also had the bright idea to remove local authority power over building heights against the recommendation of his own Department.

Betting on high rise induces land speculation & ensures sites are only viable for the largest builders, stalling development.

7/22

Murphy’s successor @DarraghOBrienTD axes co-living but not before letting a flood of applications through. His reasoning is the lower standards & higher ROI for co-living makes other development types less unviable - yet the Minister fails to see parallels w build-to-rent.

8/22

We effectively have a housing system that has been rigged to the benefit of the largest institutional players. Housing standards have been shot in the name of “cost-saving” while meddling w standards has induced massive speculation wiping out affordability.

9/22

Largely overseas based institutional funds are betting on high returns from the Irish property market, where >82% of residential schemes applied for in Dublin in 2020 were for lucrative build-to-rent.

10/22

These funds including REITS are private entities and much like our largest developers they have a duty first and foremost to their shareholders to maximise and sustain returns.

Yet we’re led to believe supply & demand will *eventually* induce affordability.

11/22

Understanding the failed policy that brought us here is key to forming an alternative housing policy.

That alternative housing policy should be focused on generating affordability while maintaining high standards for new homes & communities.

12/22

Institutional investors are essentially plugging an issue w development financing but offer v poor value for money & demand concessions over housing standards.

The state should step into this role to ensure the form of new homes & communities is not dictated by financing.

13/22

The state could set up a sovereign wealth fund which acts as a publicly owned REIT so private rental income stays in the economy.

Housing standards can be restored & concessions for “build-to-rent” demanded by institutional property can get in the bin.

14/22

Simultaneously, we need to address the fallacy of “filtering” or trickle down housing, which will fail to deliver affordability due to the housing absorption rate which means developers will not build so much, so quick, as to make their return of investment fall.

15/22

Unlike REITs & private developers the state’s first duty is to the common good, not shareholders & is thus best placed to increase housing delivery beyond the absorption rate, similar to Singapore’s Housing Development Board which delivers affordable housing for purchase.

16/22

The state could buy out one of the larger housing developers & create a state construction company - as suggested by @RoryHearne

This would ensure we have a consistent rate of housing output to break the property bubble cycle & mitigate against procurement inflation.

17/22

Centralising power to the Housing Ministry from local authorities through SPPRs & SHDs has created uncertainty & speculation, directly led to the increase to Judicial Reviews.

There’s much talk of a “plan led approach” to housing & that should be led by local authorities.

18/22

This will involve a shift in power and increase in resource incl additional planners, conservation officers & enforcement officers as well as one-stop shops in every local authority to enable large-scale “over the shop” developments & bring back derelict properties.

19/22

Engaging w dereliction & vacancy meaningfully means disciplining the land market. Land speculation & land flipping adds up to €100k to housing costs. Cost savings here have the least disruptive societal impact in new housing delivery.

20/22

Disciplining the land market means an effective Site Value Tax, discouraging speculation by limiting planning permission durations & introducing specific zoning for affordable housing (ala Kenny report 1979) which ensures no re-zoning windfalls that decrease affordability.

21/22

I don’t claim to have all the answers on housing policy, but have done enough research w @otrosnosotros to understand current policy failures which is essential to charting a new course.

Highly recommend people engage w @lorcansirr @Orla_Hegarty @MaoiliosaRey @RoryHearne
22/22