It´s #L222 season so I decided to do a price prediction of $HOP by relative comparison with the $ENS, $OP, and $PSP airdrop.
It´s based on the assumption that 🐰 $HOP will have a similar market cap at launch as $SYN and that only 50% of addresses will claim their tokens. 🧵👇...
When doing such a prediction there are essentially 2 factors that you have to solve to determine the initial price:
1. Predicted Market Cap
/
2. Initial Circulating Supply
=
🐰 $HOP = x$
1. Predicted Market Cap
Hop is the top bridge in the L2 ecosystem regarding reputation and connectedness inside the Ethereum community. We have just seen it with the 🔴 $OP airdrop.
Right now, the only comparable bridge is
@SynapseProtocol with a current market cap of $250M.
At launch, I expect $HOP to reach a $150M market cap.
It´s the first fully decentralized bridge and I believe it will take a huge part in the #L222 summer season.
However, it should be noted that we are in a bear market and some people might insta-dump it for liquidity.
2. Initial Circulating Supply
Only 5.85% (58.5M $HOP) will be able to be claimed and traded by early adopters. The question is, will they all be claimed on the first day?
I highly doubt it.
If we look at the data from the $ENS, $OP, and $PSP airdrops, few wallets did claim.
Let´s take a look:
a) $OP = 248,699 eligible addresses= 60% claimed during first day.
b) $ENS = 137,689 eligible addresses= 41% claimed during first day.
c) $PSP = 20,000 eligible addresses= 53% claimed during first day.
(Thanks to @hildobby_ for the data)
How many eligible addresses do we have for the $Hop airdrop?
After the 🏹 Sybil hunting done by the @HopProtocol team and community, out of 43,058, around 13k were identified as Sybil attackers.
This means there are 30k eligible addresses, very similar to the @paraswap airdrop.
Bear in mind that some addresses that count as "eligible" have very tiny amounts to claim, and they will not bother.
That is why I assume only 50/55% of all these eligible wallets will claim during the first day.
This means an initial circulating supply of 29.25 - 32.25M $HOP.
I expect $HOP to learn from the $OP airdrop drama, and for the claiming process to be flawless.
Summing up=
1. $150M predicted market cap (during the first week).
2. 29.25 - 32.25M $HOP as Initial Circulating Supply.
🐰 $HOP= 4.65-5.15$
@Reformed_Normie @OlimpioCrypto what are your thoughts?
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