Thread by @lhsingapura

1. DPP punches Taiwan’s military in the face, again. The level of Taiwanese stupidity is just incredible.

2. I have no respect for Chiu Kuo-cheng, Taiwan’s defense minister & You Si Kun, President of Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan. DPP’s sole expertise is punching other Taiwanese.

3. For every surface to surface missile Taiwan makes per year, China makes at least 10 to 50. It’s just not credible for You Si Kun to threaten China — the PLA is also out building Taiwan in anti-missile missiles (to shoot down Taiwanese surface to surface missiles).

4. Taiwan is ready for American sons & daughters to die fighting for them; while planning to escape from conflict should any arise. For years, they have been opening bank accounts around the world to transfer assets & cash out of Taiwan, should the need arise.

5. I have another longer thread that discusses the grossly inadequate Taiwanese efforts at funding their own island defense. Feel free to have a look at the details.

6. Tsai Ing-wen must demonstrate awareness that war requires the commitment of all national resources. War is not a military undertaking but one that demands the commitment of every citizen & resource available. Below, pics of Taipei treating war talk as cosplay.

7. Taiwan’s MND released a 28 pg civil defense handbook (w QR codes) to guide the public in nationwide emergencies & military conflict, to be better prepared. But their bomb shelters don’t have blast doors & lack equipping. See a SG bomb shelter pix below.

8. The ground reality is that the poorly trained Taiwanese conscript is untrained in combined arms warfare & highly unmotivated to fight — Taipei is Kabul on steroids. Photos of Taiwanese reserve training are no better than attending a cosplay convention — it is not real.

9. Andrew Erickson shares 8 points on the defence of Taiwan; it is worth a read on the areas needing improvement.

10. Likewise Paul Huang has done excellent work that shows the actual dilapidated state of Taiwan’s military reserves. Ground truths that are often ignored by those competing to be more ignorant on Twitter. Hopefully, in time, we can have more realistic discussions here.

11. Prime Minister Kishida’s keynote address at #SLD22 is worthy of reflection. Others more qualified than me also realise that Sec. Austin’s speech is hollow — the US is slowly losing & the peoples in the Asia-Pacific should prepare for the day to come (& not the Indo-Pacific).

12. In the 2026 to 2036 time frame, the PLA(N) is infinitely more capable than the 38,000 sailor strong ROC Navy — fortunately for Taiwan, their immediate neighbour in the 1st island chain is Japan, a very capable US ally.

13. Before the Japan–US summit in Apr 2021, Kurt Campbell requested Japan to pass a bill similar to the Taiwan Relations Act. To prevent Biden from making such a request, Japan expressed its concern about the security situation — Japan’s support for Taiwan is lukewarm.

14. Given Japan’s domestic & diplomatic challenges, the Kishida admin will have to choose a hybrid policy that is realist in nature.

15. Kishida will skilfully mix deterrence & dialogue in Tokyo’s conversations with Beijing (while leveraging on Washington’s clout).

16. The 1st of 108 M1A2Ts delivered — but too many think tanks make assessments justifying the need for high levels of spending for military deterrence but show no awareness of the need for American political reassurance, to China. IMHO, Team Biden needs to strike a balance.

17. For Paul & myself, the delivery of more American weapons, do not solve the Taiwanese military’s mindset problem. Given the PLA’s operational concept of target-centric warfare, they will think of these new M1A2Ts as just targets unless real Taiwanese reform efforts are made.

18. As a Singaporean who has been to Taiwan for our country’s unilateral military training, I am naturally concerned with latest developments. I am grateful to Taiwan for hosting the SAF since 1975 & for the medical aid given to our injured soldiers in training accidents.

19. Another American pointing out that the USN cannot be nimble enough with its current naval ship building program to meet a 2027 to 2035 threat of armed conflict.

20. The bigger issue is lack of magazine depth. Even Americans with their huge MIC are worried that it’s just not enough against the PLA — the USAF & USN is starting a new munitions line for the AIM-260 JATM by 2026, while concurrently placing orders for the AIM-120D.

21. Members of the foreign press in Taiwan, giving President Tsai & her party’s supporters a brainless pass — knowing that the ROC Army can’t even fight for 14 days, while claiming that the Taiwanese are serious about defence.

22. Instead of TRUTHFULLY reporting on the sorry state of the ROC Army’s reserve system, they use airsoft cosplay to picture Taiwanese resolve. This is dishonest reporting on Taiwan at multiple levels by a foreigner who knows better.