Thread by @TRUExDEMON

So... I know I've been *really* quiet about $BIOR, but quiet doesn't mean silent. I've been watching the data on it over the last several months while pressure built up from the shorts.

But now is the right time to strike, so here's the DD for everyone to review. As always, NFA.

First off, let's review the Ortex Data. Utilization has been maxed out at 100% since the gap-down rug pull in March, and yet shorts and loaned shares have increased since then.

Only recently, shorts have begun unrolling their positions, and I suspect a few reasons why.

At a time back when $BIOR was $PROG, its entire float had been shorted by over 80% as short exempts were abused by market makers to cover the demand from retail upon the good news of PROG's new patent grants for their DDS and OBDS drug delivery systems.

At that time, Athyrium, the holding company which owned more than 60% of $PROG stock, and we suspected they were playing both sides of the stock in order to acquire them cheaply.

Buying shares to own majority while shorting to drive the price down...

Then Retail stepped in...

As of right now, $BIOR is sitting at 19% SI of FF, but the number of shares sold short is still at 20M shares. 4x the amount that was sold short when retail pushed it to $1.50 in October back when $BIOR was $PROG.

The shorts on loan are at an average age of 90 days...

I suspect that many of the shorts that got trapped back when $BIOR / $PROG went from $0.60 to $6 are still in their positions. They're only just NOW starting to unroll their positions. The age of shorts is rapidly going up in the last 2 months, which means new shorts are exiting

But shorts have a problem. This market is completely illiquid, so they're having trouble exiting. Market Makers are using short-exempts to fill their orders, or at least that's what I think.

Look at the short volume and short exempts since May. Fucking insane.

For those of you who aren't aware, short exempts are used when market makers can't locate shares and are still trying to make a market, so they sell shares they don't own to fill their customers' buy orders.

That's called a naked short by another name. 😉

6 days ago, 10% of the short volume was short exempt, which means this market has become completely illiquid. Anyone buying shares is buying them from a market maker who has no shares to provide, so they get loans and it is going to jack up the cost-to-borrow as a result.

Notice that the cost to borrow spiked by more than 250% ever since May 25th? That's because of those short exempts that MMs had to borrow from a lender.

They're naked short and shorts have nowhere to go. Days to cover are above 5.8

They are cornered and hoping nobody notices.😈

Coincidentally, I noticed that Athyrium is no longer a majority stakeholder, so there is no longer a risk of a buy-out to rip shares out of retail hands.

On the Options side, there's a huge opportunity, because the call contracts for $0.50 and $1.00 strikes for July and August are insanely cheap, as are the January 2023 calls.

Don't believe me? Here's the BID/ASK for the most popular contracts.

Calls are 86% of OI:

Already 5% of the float is on the options chain for July 15th above $2.50, but the calls are so cheap and liquid that you could buy 700 calls, $1 strike for $2 a piece.

Just $1,400 for the right to buy 70k shares at $1, guaranteed.

That's insane.

And to take it a step further, because the gamma ramp is so close to the money, anyone who starts buying $0.50 and $1 strike calls for *any expiration date* would force market makers to delta-hedge by buying 100 shares per call contract purchased.

I'm completely floored 🤣

The best part is that $BIOR is getting ready to present its new DDS at the Parenteral Drug Association Conference in Oct, which is going to expose their novel technology to the world of leading pharmaceutical companies whose business depends on injectable-only drugs.

In the case of $BIOR, I'm urging caution, because we've been rug-pulled before.

Please don't bet the farm.

But this may be a situation where market makers and shorts are backed into a corner where if bulls step in could easily result in a combined short & gamma squeeze.

But that $0.50c & $1c for 7/15 and 8/19 get bought up in large amounts between now and the next several weeks before shorts can get out of their positions, and if Market Makers end up selling a bunch of naked call options they can't find shares for, then the delta hedging will be

As always, this is not financial advice. Please conduct your own due-dilligence and research on the company to get a full grasp on what they do, what their technology does, and how it can change the field of internal medicine.

Obviously, I'm bullish on the stock and own a significant position, so please don't just take me at my word. I have my own biases just like the rest of us, and of course I would love to see a short squeeze in $BIOR.

However, as always, this is a retirement long hold for me.

Assuming $BIOR survives its growth stage, achieves its speculated partnerships with $PFE $ABBV and $IONS, I expect them to be a +$5Bn Market Cap company by 2030.

Looking forward to seeing this little biotech gem shine.

Good luck everyone, and may the odds be in your favor.

@threadreaderapp unroll