$PROG shorts and market makers are telegraphing a move to the upside. To everyone who is freaking out and calling this a dead play, you're looking at consolidation. Calm TF down...
Wyckoff Accumulation final phase of consolidation is following trend.
Market makers and call sellers still have until Tuesday to make their deliveries. This activity demonstrates an engineered sell-off. They need panic selling in order to scoop up shares on a discount before the next leg up.
The fewer who sell, the less we move to the downside.
We're going to go through some volatility this week as they play their games. T+2 to deliver options and an additional T+6 for market makers to close the outstanding FTDs that result.
Have patience and let the algorithms burn themselves out. They're operating on auto pilot...
Almost all of the bearish volume came from selling call options at the end of the day, which I STRONGLY suspect is being done in order to quickly secure premium and scalp some cash before the options expire.
This is a very common action, but for it to happen in these numbers...
... holy shit. There are 111,295 calls OTM on $PROG between $5 and $7.50
That's a combined 11.13M shares on the table.
Those weren't there this morning.
A fair amount of these may be retail, but many times more are likely coming from market makers & HFs.
$PROG OTC/Darkpool activity indicates that algos and institutions are the main responsible parties for this price action today.
We continue to see tons of selling pressure routing to the exchanges whilst.
Reminder to use directed market orders to send your busy to the exchange.
This is a speculative explanation, but I have noticed that because of the plethora of available shares in dark pools, it seems likely that MMs will buy large sums of shares in DPs to grab an inventory of shares on the cheap.
This allows MMs to fulfill buy orders from their inventory instead of buying on the exchange, preventing the NBBO from being affected. Meanwhile, they can route any sells directly to the exchanges on a selective basis to create the illusion of massive selling volume.
For those that like to daytrade on ETFs, $IWM is severely oversold, and @unusual_whales flow is obscenely bullish following this dip.
An alert was fired for a whale buy on the $253 calls expiring 12/10, which are surprisingly cheap at $0.35 on the ask side.
Looks like a nice reversal incoming for the Russell.
It's always a good idea to have some side plays going to earn you a little bit of money, and if you're one of the #AMCAPES, betting on the Russell indirectly helps #AMC as well as it's part of that ETF.
I had a tiny bit of buying power left after I finished exercising my $PROG calls, and wanted to jump on something a bit more... diversified?
Just a nice little swing trade on the side that I noticed looks pretty juicy, so I'm gonna follow that whale.
I find it EXTREMELY unlikely that $PROG will announce an offering, even at these prices, before they or their biopharma partner announce the terms of their partnership, as both parties know it will cause a jump in value.
Even if a dilution comes, there is only 13m shares available to offer, and Athyrium has been scooping up every single offering that wasn't direct to market.
There aren't enough shares available to do any real damage & the offering would be bought within 3 days at this volume.
Suffice to say, I'm not even remotely worried about dilution. Even if it happens, I'll just set limit buys and get more shares at a discount.
It won't be enough to destroy a squeeze if retail simply holds and buys.
Oof, I wish I hadn't slept in today. Could have made a real nice day-trade. Oh well.
Anyway, I see $PROG is doing awesome. Broke through two support levels in pre-market, and fell back to $5 before finding support.
All-in-all, pretty healthy correction.
Once we establish $5 as the new level of strong support, which it looks to becoming so, then we can expect to see another leg-up. $5.50 is a lovely target that we can easily break to put another level of call options in the money.
Lo and behold, Dec calls are filling up too.
Shorts are still going to have a hard time borrowing shares at this point. Util is 99.9% and the net returns from two days ago are apparently already being borrowed again, which just means more money to take from shorts.
What an absolutely incredible day for $PROG. We didn't quite break that $5 area of support, but that wasn't the goal today. Our goal was to break $4 and we left it far behind us in opening 5 minutes of the day and never looked back.
The numbers are in for $PROG, and whooooooooo boy is it tilted as hell.
6 Million FTDs on 10/29, and we've been on the threshold list ever since 10/20. T+19 days.
$SPRT squeezed on T+21 days on threshold. Just saying.
This is gonna be a long DD thread. Fuckle the buck up.
TL;DR: #SqueezePROG is looking bigger, badder, and more likely than ever.
First, covering the above screenshot, we see that SI% is 30% even after a net return of 2.13M shares today so far. Shorts are now fleeing the stock as we are running up towards $3.50.
If you missed the space call this morning, we talked about $3.50 and $4 being significant levels for us. $3.50 is the major resistance, but $4 is the target to trigger the gamma ramp toward $7.50, which is obviously what we'd all love to happen.
$PROG Take a look at the difference in the OI on the ITM strikes.
Do you see the lack of volume, and yet the OI dropped dramatically?
That means people exercised their options in massive numbers.
T+2 days from now (Wed), those shares will be forced to deliver. This is bullish.
Image on the left is from last week.
Image on the right is from today.
The FUD factory at InvestorPlace is working overtime.
We are going to #SQUEEZEPROG
Be patient and hold. We got this.
I'm buying shares and OTM calls.
The reason why this matters is because naked calls that get exercised early force the seller to buy stock at market price before T+2 to cover those calls. The more ITM calls exercised before close on Wed, the more shares that have to be bought before Friday.
I'm not saying a sell off is gonna happen for certain, but I definitely think that $PROG holders will have their conviction tested harder than ever. Power hour is coming and the volume is still lowest it's been in weeks.
The following is absolutely not financial advice...
This is the hard part for $PROG holders. We are coming to the home stretch. This is when all the FUD, negativity and selling pressure will hit hardest.
It's because we are right.
Shorts are scared.
Market makers are terrified.
And insiders are being greedy.
We were forced below our ascending support trend on the lowest volume candle in five weeks. This was a targeted sale to force the price down as fast as possible. There is nothing but false sell walls above us.
That's because the call options chain is entirely too scary.
67,637 calls ITM
185,060 calls OTM
IF THE PRICE GOES UP BY EVEN ONE DOLLAR, THE CHAIN REACTION OF CALLS ELIGIBLE TO EXERCISE CAN CAUSE A RUNAWAY EFFECT OF GAMMA SQUEEZE.
This is Market makers trying to acquire shares at the cheapest price by scaring retail.