Thread by @DavidPepper

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🧵— Roe, the Laboratories of Autocracy Strategy (and how we fight it)

I hope this thread will change the way many of you see politics in today’s America. And how you engage.

It’s a tweet version of my book, and the presentation I give almost every night. Read on:

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It starts with this slide.

Most people think there is a single battle in politics in America. But I’ve come to the conclusion that the two sides are fighting such different battles, there are actually TWO battles. And for the most part, one side does not see that reality.

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The side on the left largely assumes democracy is intact, and understands that its political views are generally mainstream/popular, so this side’s political battle is about election outcomes.

Win elections based on your mainstream views, and you get what you want done.

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And because this side is efficient in pursuing its goal of winning elections, this side largely wages its battle for FEDERAL offices, in federal swing states & districts, in federal years.

When it wins those offices, this side celebrates, having won its political battle.

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This is also how the media generally covers American politics. It’s how Democrats, most independents, and even some Republicans think about politics too.

So what’s the other side’s battle?

Warning: it’s a very different battle.

1) It starts w the understanding that…

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…that Democracy is not stable. And that it can actually be subverted into minority rule. It happens in other countries. And it can happen in our country. This side gets this.

2) Critically, this side also understands ITS worldview is a minority/extreme worldview

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It understands that in a robust democracy, in repeated elections where most vote on a fair playing field, that it would NOT succeed. They know that their minority worldview, be it ending Roe, extreme gun laws, extreme trickle down economics, etc would not prevail

They’re right

So what do they do as a result? Do they quit?

No.

They simply adopt a different battle to get their worldview achieved.

As opposed to the other side‘s battle of securing election outcomes in a robust democracy, their battle becomes…a battle against democracy itself.

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BTW they don’t even hide this fact.

Billionaire Peter Thiel reflected the view when he wrote democracy and freedom are not compatible.

And CPAC made it very clear by having their convention in Hungary, where Orban has perfected subverting Democracy

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msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/rcna…

So now that that’s their political battle, how do they wage it? In federal swing states in federal years?

Of course they want to win those races, but no, that’s not their prime front in their battle.

The main front in their battle is several rungs lower: statehouses.

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Why, you ask? Because it turns out, statehouses are the perfect institutions to ram through their minority worldview while subverting democracy:

1) statehouses deal with almost every contested issue in politics. And every issue THEY care about. Roe. Guns. Schools. Climate. Etc

2) statehouses also have an enormous influence over democracy itself. They write the rules re how we vote, when we vote, how we register or are purged. They also draw the district lines for themselves & Congress.

They even play a role in the electoral college process

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And it turns out, these powers give them an incredible ability to lock in minority rule through a combination of voter suppression and extreme gerrymandering

2012 and 2018 offer brutal examples where Republicans stayed locked into statehouse power even when states were blue

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Gerrymandering does even more than that, though. They’ve created a system where almost to a person, not a single member of their majorities are EVER in real elections. Their elections are guaranteed for entire careers.

Here’s the avg margin of victory in OH over a decade

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And this is key, because not only do they stay in power as a minority, but that lack of accountability means they can pass the most extreme & toxic bills and stay in power. Things like banning Roe w no exceptions—which in any normal democracy would guarantee an election loss

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So after a decade of Statehouses being rigged in this way, it turns out almost every incentive we assume leads to good public service is turned upside down: public outcomes don’t matter; being mainstream hurts you; being extreme helps you.

Which leads to a downward spiral

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But of course, since all those terrible behaviors would guarantee they’d lose in a real democracy, this new generation of statehouse “leaders” know that they must keep gerrymandering and attacking democracy in order to stay in power.

So they do that non-stop, and fiercely

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Those attacks took place from 2011-2020, in the form of gerrymandering, suppression, and later in the decade, attacks on election outcomes themselves. And of course, they accelerated even more after 2020, modeling off what had worked previously.

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And the reason I call them Laboratories of Autocracy is these statehouses are always learning and copying from one another’s successes and failures, guided by national groups such as ALEC and right-wing think tanks. Pushing their minority agenda through state capitals

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So back to the beginning:

1) the side on the left is battling over election outcomes in federal swing states, getting excited in big federal years.

2) the side on the right is battling democracy itself, using statehouses as their primary weapon to do so—grabbing state

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houses whenever and everywhere they can, then locking states down through gerrymandering, then pushing through an extreme worldview, learning from all the statehouses they control. And never stopping because there is no accountability for being more and more aggressive.

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With each side battling its battle, who’s going to win? Who’s winning?

Of course the side battling democracy in every state is going to win over the side only engaging in swing states in federal years. It’s not even close (even though the side on the left is the majority)

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BOTTOM LINE: until the side on the left sees that it’s in a full-fledged battle for democracy itself, requiring it to engage in the fight on the front lines (states, statehouses) where democracy is shaped, everywhere, all the time, w plans & passion that match that reality…

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that side is not going to win.

Yes. We must win every federal seat too, because they are key to protecting democracy.

But once you see the big picture I’ve laid out, you see what a disaster it is that for so long, we haven’t focused on much BUT those federal swing seats.

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There’s much more to say. And I say it :)

1) I wrote a book about it (w far more on what to do)
2) I tweet/videos daily, so follow me
3) I speak all the time to groups (DM me)

But for now on, be sure your political activity matches the reality we face.

amazon.com/Laboratories-A…