David Pepper Profile picture
Jun 25, 2022 25 tweets 10 min read Read on X
🚨 🚨
🧵— Roe, the Laboratories of Autocracy Strategy (and how we fight it)

I hope this thread will change the way many of you see politics in today’s America. And how you engage.

It’s a tweet version of my book, and the presentation I give almost every night. Read on:

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It starts with this slide.

Most people think there is a single battle in politics in America. But I’ve come to the conclusion that the two sides are fighting such different battles, there are actually TWO battles. And for the most part, one side does not see that reality.

2/
The side on the left largely assumes democracy is intact, and understands that its political views are generally mainstream/popular, so this side’s political battle is about election outcomes.

Win elections based on your mainstream views, and you get what you want done.

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And because this side is efficient in pursuing its goal of winning elections, this side largely wages its battle for FEDERAL offices, in federal swing states & districts, in federal years.

When it wins those offices, this side celebrates, having won its political battle.

4/
This is also how the media generally covers American politics. It’s how Democrats, most independents, and even some Republicans think about politics too.

So what’s the other side’s battle?

Warning: it’s a very different battle.

1) It starts w the understanding that…

5/
…that Democracy is not stable. And that it can actually be subverted into minority rule. It happens in other countries. And it can happen in our country. This side gets this.

2) Critically, this side also understands ITS worldview is a minority/extreme worldview

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It understands that in a robust democracy, in repeated elections where most vote on a fair playing field, that it would NOT succeed. They know that their minority worldview, be it ending Roe, extreme gun laws, extreme trickle down economics, etc would not prevail

They’re right
So what do they do as a result? Do they quit?

No.

They simply adopt a different battle to get their worldview achieved.

As opposed to the other side‘s battle of securing election outcomes in a robust democracy, their battle becomes…a battle against democracy itself.

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BTW they don’t even hide this fact.

Billionaire Peter Thiel reflected the view when he wrote democracy and freedom are not compatible.

And CPAC made it very clear by having their convention in Hungary, where Orban has perfected subverting Democracy

9/

msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/rcna…
So now that that’s their political battle, how do they wage it? In federal swing states in federal years?

Of course they want to win those races, but no, that’s not their prime front in their battle.

The main front in their battle is several rungs lower: statehouses.

10/
Why, you ask? Because it turns out, statehouses are the perfect institutions to ram through their minority worldview while subverting democracy:

1) statehouses deal with almost every contested issue in politics. And every issue THEY care about. Roe. Guns. Schools. Climate. Etc
2) statehouses also have an enormous influence over democracy itself. They write the rules re how we vote, when we vote, how we register or are purged. They also draw the district lines for themselves & Congress.

They even play a role in the electoral college process

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And it turns out, these powers give them an incredible ability to lock in minority rule through a combination of voter suppression and extreme gerrymandering

2012 and 2018 offer brutal examples where Republicans stayed locked into statehouse power even when states were blue

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Gerrymandering does even more than that, though. They’ve created a system where almost to a person, not a single member of their majorities are EVER in real elections. Their elections are guaranteed for entire careers.

Here’s the avg margin of victory in OH over a decade

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And this is key, because not only do they stay in power as a minority, but that lack of accountability means they can pass the most extreme & toxic bills and stay in power. Things like banning Roe w no exceptions—which in any normal democracy would guarantee an election loss

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So after a decade of Statehouses being rigged in this way, it turns out almost every incentive we assume leads to good public service is turned upside down: public outcomes don’t matter; being mainstream hurts you; being extreme helps you.

Which leads to a downward spiral

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But of course, since all those terrible behaviors would guarantee they’d lose in a real democracy, this new generation of statehouse “leaders” know that they must keep gerrymandering and attacking democracy in order to stay in power.

So they do that non-stop, and fiercely

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Those attacks took place from 2011-2020, in the form of gerrymandering, suppression, and later in the decade, attacks on election outcomes themselves. And of course, they accelerated even more after 2020, modeling off what had worked previously.

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And the reason I call them Laboratories of Autocracy is these statehouses are always learning and copying from one another’s successes and failures, guided by national groups such as ALEC and right-wing think tanks. Pushing their minority agenda through state capitals

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So back to the beginning:

1) the side on the left is battling over election outcomes in federal swing states, getting excited in big federal years.

2) the side on the right is battling democracy itself, using statehouses as their primary weapon to do so—grabbing state

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houses whenever and everywhere they can, then locking states down through gerrymandering, then pushing through an extreme worldview, learning from all the statehouses they control. And never stopping because there is no accountability for being more and more aggressive.

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With each side battling its battle, who’s going to win? Who’s winning?

Of course the side battling democracy in every state is going to win over the side only engaging in swing states in federal years. It’s not even close (even though the side on the left is the majority)

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BOTTOM LINE: until the side on the left sees that it’s in a full-fledged battle for democracy itself, requiring it to engage in the fight on the front lines (states, statehouses) where democracy is shaped, everywhere, all the time, w plans & passion that match that reality…

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that side is not going to win.

Yes. We must win every federal seat too, because they are key to protecting democracy.

But once you see the big picture I’ve laid out, you see what a disaster it is that for so long, we haven’t focused on much BUT those federal swing seats.

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There’s much more to say. And I say it :)

1) I wrote a book about it (w far more on what to do)
2) I tweet/videos daily, so follow me
3) I speak all the time to groups (DM me)

But for now on, be sure your political activity matches the reality we face.

amazon.com/Laboratories-A…

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More from @DavidPepper

Mar 27
🚨 🚨

Quick take on Signal Gate

A 🧵

Beyond the egregious security breach involved, the Signal scandal also puts on full display:

1) the appalling dishonesty of these people (lying with gusto even after incriminating evidence is out in the open);

1/ Image
2) their sheer incompetence/arrogance (they essentially invited Goldberg to release the messages with all their trash talk and bald-faced lies);

3) the inability of most GOP legislators to call out anything—

2/
including something this egregious;

4) and the fact that Trump does not appear to be in charge of his own administration, or briefed on their actions, even when it involves the military

3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 26
🚨 🚨

Last night’s big PA Surprise

Short 🧵

I chatted with a PA Dem strategist who wears the opposite of rose-colored glasses about last night’s surprise upset in PA.

He was not involved in the race.

A few quotes:

1/ Image
“[F]rom a ‘sign of the political winds,’ the victory last night was significant for several reasons: first, turnout was quite high for a random March date.

Second, this turf has been Republican since the Civil War…”

2/
“….it does NOT include the city of Lancaster (which is quite blue)—that’s different than some of these “Obama-Trump” regions that may be inclined to switch back — there’s no legacy of Democratic victories in this part of Lancaster County.”

3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 24
🚨 🚨

“Will we even have future elections?”

The trap

A 🧵

It comes up regularly in meetings and zoom calls I’ve participated in.

Sometimes as a throwaway line.

Sometimes more seriously.

“Will we even have elections?”

1/
And it’s a dangerous question.

Not because we won’t have elections.

But because if enough people start to believe that the answer is “no,” then they won’t engage.

They won’t prepare. They won’t bother.

2/
And the loss in the elections that do take place becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Trump sparked this precise effect in the Georgia run-offs for US Senate in January 2021.

3/
Read 9 tweets
Mar 24
🚨 🚨

The Caving Continues

A 🧵

Another day, another institution caves to the threats and shakedowns of Donald Trump.

And the pattern is clear: the more powerful institutions are, the more likely they are to comply.

1/ Image
My law school classmate and friend @DavidLat shared on his substack an email from the chairman of the firm Paul Weiss (Brad Karp), where he described the situation the firm faced:

2/
“Only several days ago, our firm faced an existential crisis. The executive order could easily have destroyed our firm. It brought the full weight of the government down on our firm, our people, and our clients…

3/
Read 13 tweets
Mar 23
🚨 🚨

More details are coming out that many of those whisked away to El Salvador did not have criminal records, and do not appear to have been part of a gang of any sort:

1/ Image
Image
To sum it up, they were flown off to a prison in El Salvador with no due process—treated as “alien enemies” under a law meant for wartime, as if the United States is at war with Venezuela (when we clearly are not).

2/
And of course, they are only in that prison now because the Trump administration ignored a court order to send them back.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Mar 22
🚨 🚨

Columbia Caves

A 🧵

If we’ve learned anything during the Trump era, it’s that once you cave to a bully, the bullying is just getting started.

So isn’t hard to see how this plays out from here: Follow-up letters by the Trump administration…

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unsatisfied with Columbia’s response and demanding even more concessions. Then more caving by Columbia. And downhill from there.

And buoyed by his success with Columbia, Trump will no doubt make similar “hold-ups” and lists

2/
of demands of other private and public universities—leveraging federal money for certain purposes to demand concessions in all sorts of other areas.

3/
Read 5 tweets

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