Thread by @seontrack

THREAD:
There's been a lot of discussion recently about @Dept_Transport not releasing the modelling for the Strategic Rail Review or the Waterford-Limerick upgrades. Here's why modelling is important (there's maths involved - please bear with us)

The draft Waterford Metropolitan Area Transport Strategy #WMATS is currently open to public consultation til July 12. Buried in it is an analysis of a commuter rail network for Waterford - 3 trains an hour Carrick-on-Suir-Rosslare, Waterford-New Ross & 2 per hr Kilkenny-Waterford

@TFIupdates omitted #Wexford Town from this model, despite it being on the rail line and included as a major trip generator as part of their regional analysis. But that's not the main problem with this model/analysis.

Acording to @TFIupdates the proposed Waterford commuter rail system performs poorly, with Carrick-Rosslare having 24% occupancy and Waterford-Kilkenny at 19% (We don't call for reopening the New Ross line so we'll omit it for now) - but what is the proposed capacity?

Another document shows each train proposed has 285 seats, with a capacity of 350! (hourly cap. 1050)
For reference that's bigger than a 3 (190 seats) or 4 car (262 seats) 22000 IC train that's used on the Inter City Network - why such large trains for a local commuter network?

Looking at commuter rail in other parts of Munster - @IrishRail don't use such big trains: For the Cork-Cobh service the Class 2600 is used (130 seats). How does this unit perform using the NTA numbers? Pretty well - with 66% occupancy Kilk-Waterford and 62% Carrick-Rosslare

Example #2 from Munster: Limerick-Nenagh uses the Class 2800 (85 seats) - how does this do using the NTA numbers? Even better - with Kilkenny-Waterford fully seated and Carrick-Rosslare at 94% seated! Comparing like-for-like shows there's numbers for commuter rail in Waterford.

So what to make of all this? @Dept_Transport & @TFIupdates are in the process of making huge decisions on mobility & transport infra in our region and it's disappointing to see the new NIFTI intervention hierarchy being manipulated like this to give a predetermined outcome.

For Oireachtas members in the region & advocates for sustainable transport - it's vital you get submissions into the #WMATS to challenge these figures by the NTA which deliberatly downplay the possibilites for rail

If you want to take a deeper dive into the #WMATS, please come to our joint webinar with @BikeWaterford next Tuesday at 8pm. DM or email for the link.