Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Sunday update, a discussion of range/accuracy versus mass. There is a noticeable change in the last 2 weeks in the ranged war (which is the most important in this attritional phase) and that is that Ukraine is now showing the ability to hit back.

If you look at a map of FIRMS data (fires that can be picked up by satellite) there is a significant change since the beginning of June. Then, most of the fire was very close to the front line, and crucially mostly where the Russians were trying to advance.

Best to start with Donetsk Oblast, occupied by Russia for years, which has been a relatively secure base for their logistics and the major city of Donetsk is right on the border between Ukrainian and Russian controlled territory. Here is @War_Mapper purple/red Russian controlled

If you look at the FIRMS map of Donetsk oblast for the week ending June 10, you will see only small fire around Donetsk (a Russian held city). Compare it to the last week, regular fires throughout the oblast.

However those fires have a pattern, Heavy, mass firepower just to the northwest of Donetsk city, much of which would be Russian ranged firepower on Ukrainian front line post) and less mass, but regular fires throughout the oblast behind Russian lines. Ukrainian ranged fire here

For instance the town of Shakhtarsk, basically safe, behind the lines for Russian forces in June, now the seen of heavy fires. Which matches with reports of Russian depots, which had been built up in the supposedly safe area, now being hit by Ukr HIMARS.

Matches up to other claims of the Ukr now trying to systematically destroy Russian depots throughout the area that use to be safe and are now vulnerable. this taken from @IAPonomarenko story in @KyivIndependent

The situation in Kherson oblast is similar. In early June overwhelmingly Russian fire on Ukrainian front line (southeast of Mykolaiv) positions. Now thats still there, but also Ukr fire behind Russian lines (in and around Kherson city). Same pattern, Mass Russian tactical fire...

compared to more selective Ukr fire. Quite apparent when you look more closely at Kherson city this week. Two large areas of concentrated fire. The airport and the transport (rail/road) over the Dnipro. The exact kind of strategic targets Ukr should be concentrating on.

matches up with Ukr claims that they are about to make an effort in the Kherson area. They are attacking command and control, transport, depots, etc, all the smart strategic targets.

Overall, it should be noticed that there is now more fire behind Russian lines almost everywhere, Take a look at this great map by @DefMon3

@NLwartracker has also been covering this in the Kherson area.

All of this adds up to the fact that Ukraine now has the ability to fire back effectively on the Russians. They will never match Russian mass, but they are showing signs of a possible superiority in range and accuracy, which should matter more going forward.

Useful map.

Should add ease and efficiency of use to range and accuracy for Ukraine. Better systems all around. It’s a question now of getting more of them to the Ukrainians.

Still some hours to go in the day, but looks like Russian ranged fire has been dialled back enormously. Here is the Fire Map for so far today in the Donbas pocket, and for all of yesterday (so not fully comparative). And most fire seems to be behind Russian lines.

Same for Kherson front. Indeed the only registered fires seem to be behind Russian lines near Kherson city.

Is this normal for Russian ranged fire to be almost non existent by 3pm in Ukraine? If not, wonder whats happening. Operational pause or ammunition shortage the most likely explanations.

Its very easy to check yourself, btw. And realize that not every red mark is a sign of combat, they could also be field fires, old fires still burning, etc. They just signify where FIRMS is picking up evidence of fire. firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@…

Someone said/asked if it might be rainy. Looks to be some rain in the Donbas but not a drop on the Kherson front--cant think it would stop the registering of heavy modern artillery.

To show you an example of FIRMS picking up fires not having to do with artillery, here is the lovely city of Bologna, Italy right now. More fires than Kherson Oblast (which reveals more of what's happening in Kherson Oblast than it does in Bologna).

End of the day update. Really low fire in the Donbas compared to the last few days. We have now passed 19 of the 24 hours of the day there and there is more indicated fire behind Russian lines than forward. Compared to two days ago, difference is signficant.

has been a little more fire around Kherson since a few hours ago, but still seems more behind Russian lines than Ukrainian lines, and overall down alot from two days ago.

Just one day, so will need monitoring going forward. But looks like a lower amount of ranged fire coming from Russia today than anytime for four weeks. Maybe the Russians are taking the pause or maybe they are struggling with artillery logistics.