US inflation came in at 9.1% y-o-y yesterday, a 40 year record. Inflation has been a key area of concern for investors lately.
In this (long) thread, we highlight trends which indicate a likely ‘𝗰𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴-𝗼𝗳𝗳’ 𝗼𝗳 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗱.👇
“I don’t track inflation for investing”: 52-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳-𝘰𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘯𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 10 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘴!
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#DSPOnInflation: What are we saying?
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The 3 risks: What could go wrong with this hypothesis
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Why is Inflation likely to cool?
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What drove inflation in the US to 9.1%: Housing rentals, Oil & Gas and Food
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The constituents of Inflation👇
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US Housing market: Wretched extreme!
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Wretched Extreme: US Rentals are rising at the fastest pace with lowest vacancy!
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Food & Beverage is 14% of US inflation and a whopping 48% of India’s inflation
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Energy costs are elevated but for how long?
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China’s 9% growth of last 2 decades may not repeat: That’s a drag on commodities!
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The biggest consumer of metals is facing a structural downward trend 👀
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Supply is back: Inventories are rising 💪
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All shortages are followed by gluts 😑
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US Auto inventories have bottomed, used car & trucks inflation has peaked.
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Freight and logistics’ cost is now falling 📉
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US 10 yield curve has inverted sharply, though more rate hikes are pending
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Inflation hasn’t survived many yield curve inversions in the past.
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India consumer inflation has been driven by Food & Fuel🍲🛢️
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Policy wheel is inclined towards Inflation control.⏸️
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Structural inflationary drivers are absent: In India, credit gap is still negative!
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Mind the Base: Statistics alone can bring palatable outcomes!
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Bye bye Sugar high! Post crises collapsing of inflation rush is passé 👋
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Without the cash, a cool-off in inflation is likely
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Now, how can you benefit from this?
Here are some comments from our analysts.🖋️👇
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...more from our analysts.🖋️👇
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...and some more.🖋️👇
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Disclaimer 👇
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