Thread by @PsychoFpl

Playing The Long Game: FPL Strategy for beginners

The #FPL tactical decisions we make every week (who to bench, captain, transfer) form about 90% of the content in the #FPLCommunity.

In this 🧵I share my thoughts on more long term strategic decisions during the season.

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A relay season

This season we have an extra wildcard due to the World Cup, which means one might view the season as a relay .
When we hand over the baton to the next WC team largely depends on three things:

1.Fixture swings
2.DGWs/BGWs
3.Required team overhaul

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WC Planning

The first of these two we can predict, but the third is unpredictable due to injuries, covid, changes in form, bandwagons etc.

We can thus plan in a broad sense but have to remain flexible and response to new circumstances.

Herein lie two challenges…

(3/18)

We're always wrong!

First, we may think we know who the good and bad assets are, but we are invariably wrong about many things: Bandwagons emerge, highly owned assets drop like a brick.

The second challenge is a psychological bias: people often find it difficult to....

(4/18)

Temporal Discounting

... look beyond the here and now. Short term goals often prevail over long term ones, which is why we for example eat and drink too much.

Therefore immediate changes our #FPL team needs seem more important than whatever it may need down the line.

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Optimism bias

Relatedly, people tend to be (unrealistically) optimistic about the future. FPL managers are no exception here.

While our team may seem to need a wildcard overhaul now, most likely that will also be the case in the future.

Optimism bias can lead us....

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Optimism bias (cont.)

...to underestimate this and think our team will be hunky dory down the line.

Unfortunately it rarely is.

This bias is difficult to control entirely, but it’s important to be aware of it when you want to play the long game.

Know the pitfalls!

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Home of the hits

My attempt to resist the temptation to pull the early wildcard is directly related to my increased willingness to take hits to repair problems in my team.

Last year I took -76 points in hits total.

This didn't keep me from getting top 500 OR at the end

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Home of the hits (2)

When taking hits, I do think it is important to (again) play the long game.Hits are justified imo to:

1.Tap into fixture swings
2.Increase team value

Often these two go hand in hand as players with good fixtures ahead are likely to rise in price.

(9/18)

Hits and FPL performance

@FplJaap and I did a study into performance in FPL, with a sample of 247 #FPL managers.

Among other things, the results showed that taking more hits (somewhat) relates to HIGHER OR end of season.

Hits aren't so bad!



(10/18)

The value of team value

This relates to me valuing team value (TV) highly.

High TV fits with a strategy to use chips late in the season around big double and blank gameweeks.

BB is a tricky chip, but using it in a DGW to get 15 doublers is still the high upside play

(11/18)

Hits and Team Value

Taking hits is something I don’t mind early season because:

1)This is when we see most price rises.
2)There are more gameweeks to get a return on investment on them

Last year my TV halfway through the season was 107m, the year before 105m.

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Winning Time

Most elite managers do well in the 2nd half of the season, what I call ‘winning time’. This is where high TV becomes a powerful tool, if you still have your chips.

All this thinking ahead does require a firm grasp on the fixtures and fixture swings.

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Fixture Focused

A firm grasp on the fixtures and the fixture swings is key to adequate planning.

I like to use the @FFScout ticker and the interactive one by @TimBayer93

public.tableau.com/app/profile/ti…

(14/18)

But remember: We're always wrong!

Every year there are teams that surprise us, in a positive and negative sense. FUL, NFO and BOU now seem great fixtures, but a lot can change during the first part of the season.

Once again: Think ahead, but stay flexible and adapt.

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Conclusion

So basically I am saying plan ahead, but don't expect them to fully work out.

Switching between long term goals and short term needs is what we do all the time. As human beings AND as #FPL managers....

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Conclusion (Cont.)

This thread is based on my personal perspective on the value of planning. Many managers have very different strategies, certainly in regard to taking hits and chasing team value.

I would encourage you to find your own style as an #FPL manager!

(17/18)

And that's it! I hope you enjoyed my thought dump on strategic planning in #FPL

Good luck, I hope you crack that GW1 code and find that bulletproof team that is completely invulnerable to randomness!

#FPLCommunity

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