Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 22h. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations. This thread will get updated later today.

Todays presentation is brought to you by Ramzan Fragglerov (again)

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

72 Shelling locations

RuAF are making little if not progress on the Bakhmut front. The AFU repulsed attacks in Novoluhans'ke and Soledar. Fighting continues around Pokrovs'ke and Verkhn'okam'yans'ke according to GSUA.

GSUA keep mentioning "near Mykil's'ke" in the shelling reports. I also saw a geolcated video with a RU tank getting hit by javelin from the same place. I believe it's still contested even if it's mentioned in the shelling reports.

Davydiv area. GSUA mentioned RuAF attacks in these places, I have adjusted accordingly.
Davydiv Brid -> Bilohirka
Mala Seidemynukha -> Andriivka

Vysokopillya.

I do NOT believe there is an encirclement at this time.

There are reports of 250-2000 RuAF being encircled and even Vysokopillya being liberated, I believe these rumors are false.

I believe RU forces are trying to hold a first line of defense along the.

I have seen this stated by milbloggers and I think satellite images supports this. Most of the shelling are north of the Ivanivka road . These looks like inaccurate shellings and are most likely from the Russian side.

There are almost no shellings on the south side of the road , that supports the theory of the frontline along and north of the road.

This is how I think the rumor got started.
1. I reported V. being close to being encircled.
2. A few hours later @Kartinamaslom5 wrote something similar. I asked, he had no other source than looking at the map making coming to the same conclusion as i did.

3. Then TPYXA takes his map and makes it clickbait, making it an encirclement.
4. I believe @mhmck picked up the info and used that to make his post.

After that, hell breaks loos on twitter and we start seeing all kind of rumors. Here is a claim about 2k orcs encircled.

I believe we have a clear case of circle evidence unless some one starts pointing to actual sources.

And Haider Stanislav is not a source that I would trust in this matter, he is the head of Ukraine's anti corruption agency. He seems to get his info from telegram and twitter, and is likely a part of the circular evidence. facebook.com/haiderstanislav

I think it's healthy to be skeptical whenever you hear encircled, cauldron etc. This war is not really moving fast enough for those to occur. I'm not saying it's impossible, I'm just saying it's a very low probability for a large one to be created at this point.

So according to this article there might be some truth to the claim about an encirclement. Which is an extremely interesting coincidence. They are doing it the right way, they are referring to Ukrainian encirclement. However...
h/t @bad_ukrainian

I have also red reports by people with military connections who says they are doubtful of an encirclement. I guess time will tell.

102 shellings added to the map. I think this is a new record. These are reported shellings and it does not necessarily indicate an increase in shellings.

The south is burning, I don't think we can draw any conclusions from this. Most of them looks like fires out on the fields.

The sons of Lada buyers attacked in the direction of
Verkhn'okam'yans'ke, Ivano-Dar'ivka, Vesele, Soledar Pokrovs'ke. The attacks failed and some lucky mothers gets to buy new Ladas.

h/t @giK1893
Russian mothers...

Inspired by this, more RU soldiers wanted to provide their mothers with new cars and tried to attack Vuhlehirsʹka TPP and Vodyane, without success.
(Vesele and Vodyane may not be correct ones, I'm sure I will be told if I'm wrong, so it'll choose the lazy way of finding out)

Nothing really changed in northern Kherson since this morning. The rumors supporting a possible encirclement state the RU soldiers are out of supplies.

I have seen argument both for and against an encirclement and I have decided to leave it for now and let time tell.

Key word: __almost__
And it's Arestovich, so about as accurate as Russian artillery.

This is the best information I have been able to gather at this point. The AFU almost have an encirclement (just like I said yesterday), they tried to close it yesterday but failed. 11thSGAAB, 205th SMRB and 10th Separate Special Purpose Brigade are putting up some resistance.

205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade