According to RU channels UA withdrew from the Filtration Plant in the east and Zenith in the south. This is good news, since avoiding an encirclement should be a priority at this point. It seems the coke plant and Kvartal high-rises are the current UA strongholds. RU forces continue to try to fully encircle Avdiivka pushing mainly from 3 directions.
It remains to be seen if Ukraine are planning to withdraw from the east side of the city, but I think it's a pretty good idea to do so.

I frequently get questions like:
"Are you ok?"
"What happened?"
"Why did you stop posting?"

So here we go⬇️
Yes I'm ok.

(This post is sponsored by Ramzan Fragglerov) Time.
I have less time to follow Ukraine. I usually spent about 3-4 hours a day to just make my daily threads and going through all the information channels. To be able to keep the information reliable, I have to put in 6-10h per day. I dont have that kind of time anymore.

🧵During the last week, Ukrainian forces have advanced 32km2 in the Robotyne direction. They are expanding their penetration of the Surovikin and have reached the outskirts of Verbove and Verbove. Legend and map link
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/oper…

An overview of the Ukrainian frontline changes for the last week. Legend
Old UA line, is the estimated UA forward line on 2023-09-02
Interactive map can be found here:
scribblemaps.com/maps/view/oper…

The AFU are slowly establishing positions on the opposite side of the "river" in Kam'yans'ke, Zaporizhzhia. It's worth mentioning the "river" is probably pretty dry at this point.

This is what it looked like on July 17th when they were first geolocated on that side of the "river".

This morning multiple RU channels reported a UA offensive around Novodonets'ke, Novomaiors'ke and yesterday there were reports about activity around Shevchenko. Reports this morning by RU telegram channels.

t.me/milinfolive/10…
t.me/aleksandr_skif…

My current take on what's going on in Robotyne.
Russian forces are defending the trench system south of the town and are counter attacking towards the town. This is most likely the reason they keep claiming Ukraine have not liberated the town. Ukrainian forces seem to work a lot with small dismounted infantry groups a the moment, trying to expand the salient south and east.
A small UA recon team was spotted at the town limits of Verbove a few days ago. I think it's unlikely the managed to consolidate position

Fireworks in Pskov. This is the home of the 76th GAAD

An overview of units currently involved in fighting in the Robotyne direction.

Unit locations are not exact, nor do they represent the location of the entire unit. I think it's fair to say he general consensus has been the UA advance during this offensive have been slow. But most analysts also agree there is a big unknown factor and that is the attrition ratio of the two forces fighting.

A brief clarification regarding the defensive lines. @KofmanMichael addressed this in a recent war on the rocks podcast.

On a daily basis I see questions like:
"Where are the defensive lines"
"Which is the first line"

I'll try to address this here. The blue dashed line represent the most forward observed UA positions while the red represent RU the same for RU.
Orange is trench systems observed via satellite imagery.

🙅‍♂️ How do you explain to your boss that a drone was flying over your "super high tech air defense system", filming it as it was hit by a missile it's supposed to be able to shoot down? Sir, we successfully intercepted the missile with our launcher. We are still assessing damage caused by the debris.

Russian forces will suffer as they get pushed closer to the Surovikin line.

The same things which makes you benefit from a defensive line will also make you suffer if you are on the wrong side of it. Enemy, defender etc. does not refer to Ukraine or Russia specifically in this thread.

The purpose of a defensive line is to slow down the enemy, make him avoid the area or funnel him so he becomes an easier target and hopefully stop him.

🧵F16s are cool and much needed, but...

30% of all combat deaths are preventable with proper medical kit and training.

For the price of one F16 we could equip hundreds of thousands of UA solders with proper medical training and IFAKs

Leaders of European countries pay attention

Ukraine does not have helicopter medevac like the US.

90% of deaths happen before they get to a hospital, so the most important treatment happens in the trenches right away. This is why every soldier needs an IFAK and proper training. Thousands of lives can be saved.

This was a serious attempt for a public discussion, but some how I offended this lunatic Walter Report. I wonder where he sees the attack and slander? These people are absolutely nuts. Andrew is a good guy.

So much for the 10:1 ratio in Bakhmut. I'm talking about this.

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1692558492668772755

According to Igor Girkin, Ukrainian forces have liberated P'yatykhatky and are trying to advance towards Zhereb'yanky. I think satellite images from today confirms this.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671082904858787841?s=20

He should apply for a job at the Kremlin.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1670882399486443520

It's obvious Ukraine tried to get a quick break through in the south at the start of their offensive. That did not work out. So I don't think he should be saying it's going according to the plan.

SAR (Synthetic-aperture radar) Images of the Dnipro delta.
2022-06-06 to 2022-06-18 This gif indicates water levels are more or less back to normal in the lower part of the delta.

Unlucky
Ukraine seems to have shifted from hitting command posts to hitting ammo depots with weapons capable of hitting beyond GMLRS range. Shift of strategy or arrival of new capabilities? A railway town by the name of Rykove was hit. This town is a long the only railway line which supplies the Zaporizhzhia front{

The 12th 🇸🇪 military aid package include sending up to 60 military personnel to countries close to Ukraine to assist with munition supply and spare parts for Swedish systems, including Strv 122, Strf 9040, Archer and RBS70. Sweden will also let UA pilots conduct "orientation training" (old news). Which I think mean they will get to look at JAS 39, fly some simulator and possibly try out the two seater.

Just a short status update. UA forces liberated Storozheve and Makarivka during the last few days. Other than that I have seen no major movement on the frontlines. I think it's worth noting 68th Jaeger and 35th Marine brigade have been doing these liberations. This means old Brigades are being used to liberate territory. One can only speculate about why.