Thread by @DefMon3

Update 🧵July 23h. Visit the interactive map for more details and explanations. This thread will get updated later today.

The frontline report to day is presented by Ramzan Ladyrov.

Interactive map: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/2022…

48 Shelling locations added, no specific location reported for Kherson region.

Very limited firms data available at this point, I believe it's cloudy in the northern parts.

The Lada Lottery continues on the Sivers'k-Bakhmut Front.
The toothless pirates of the Russian federation attacked in the following directions without success:
Verkhn'okam'yanka
Spirne
Pokrovs'ke
Vuhlehirsʹka TPP

Vysokopillya.
So the purpose of my thread about a possible rumor getting started was to make people aware about a possible problem with circle evidence.
However, the whole thing (from my side) started with me stating RuAF were close to being encircled. (Yesterdays picture)

This was based on my belief the RuAF still held the line along the road. However as the day progressed I got additional information the AFU had crossed the road and actually attempted to close the encirclement.

This gives a different situation, at this point we do have a 3/4th of a encirclement. With a larger area, this would not have been a huge problem for the RuAF, they could still slip out.

As we know, the area is flat and consists of mostly open fields, the exit is roughly 6km wide. Since there isn't much cover, both RuAF and AFU need to use villages and tree lines as cover, this makes movement hard. One huge problem at this point is most likely resupply for RuAF.

In an area only 6km wide, it is extremely hard to move with vehicles if the enemy have Javelins, Stugna-P and drone coverage.

I also want to add a comparison for the Zolote encirclement, it was roughly 5 times larger 30km2 vs 150km2, but it also had a 6km gap for the AFU to slip out of.
I think it's possible the RuAF will slip out of this. The fuel supply could be an issue as stated by The Insider.

Link to the insider.

My conclusion regarding the Vysokopillya situation is
I might have to redefine my definition of encirclement, for me it has been completely surrounding the enemy.
No matter which words used to describe the RuAF situation, the seem to be knee deep in shit.

A withdrawal from salient by the RuAF might generate momentum for the AF. Time will tell.

I had a look at the bridges in the Kherson area.
These are interesting because if destroyed, they can possibly isolate a large amount of the RU invasion force.
Taking out the bridges over the Inhulets river will also make it harder for the RU Forces to resupply and reinforce.

In Snihurivka there is one bridge, the one marked as destroyed have was destroyed before the invasion some time. This bridge is a temporary pontoon bridge and was repaired in march. In Novovasylivka there might possibly be some damage on the bridge.

The bridge in Yelyzavetivka looks operational on satellite, but seems kind of weak.

The bridge in Yelyzavetivka looks operational on satellite.
The bridge in Halahanivka looks like it has a gap on google earth, so I'm assuming it isn't operational.
In Novotymofiivka there is what looks like a temporary bridge since before the invasion, it looks operational.

Today we received information about the bridge in Dar'ivka has been damaged and earlier in the week we have seen damage on the Antonovskiy Bridge.
h/t @bayraktar_1love for pictures for those.
I have not seen any reports of damage on rail road bridges marked with white.

The bridge we saw hit today, is a part of the M14 high way between Kherson CIty and the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. Witch would have to be used if the Antonovskiy Bridge gets destroyed or unusable (if it isn't already).

Some 70 locations of shellings today, keep in mind, Kherson area is being left out for some reason.

FIRMS Data: 2022-07-23_18:20
Added 211 locations to kml
Filtered 383 locations by proximity to other fires
Removed 51 false positives
No fires in the north so i got a better view of the south and chopped Kharkiv.

29th CAA have started to make a lot of noise lately with the help of two artillery's brigades. These are shellings from today and yesterday. It seems activity in this area has picked up.

RuAF tried to reconnaissance in the area of Bohorodychne, the enemy unit was neutralized according to GSUA.

Members of Tactical Group Lada (RU) tried to advance in the direction of Verkhn'okam'yans'ke from multiple directions. According to GSUA this was their attempts were unsuccessful, scuffed losses and left in panic. They also attacked Spirne without success.

Further south additional units from Tactical Group Lada (RU) tried to advance on Soldear, Vuhlehirsʹka and Pokrovs'ke without success. The cheer from mothers echoed over Russian cities.

@CovertShores Found what he claims to be a pontoon bride by the railway bridge over Dnipro river close to Kherson city. I'm not 100% convinced at this point, possibly it's under construction.

Worth to mention his info has always been solid in the past.

I would like to add that I have also been looking for at least signs of preparation of pontoon crossings.

The reason for this is RuAF knows they will be in trouble if the bridges over Dnipro gets taken out (I believe this can be done without damaging the dam).

I would expect RuAF to at least have a bail out plan. If AFU can destroy the stationary bridges, they can of course destroy pontoon bridges.

But, I do at least expect them to have a backup plan, possibly constructing a pontoon bridge for temporary use.

It is also possible to use the pontoon segments as barges, so you don't have to build a complete bridge across the river to move units across. This could possibly be an an alternative for the Russians.

RuAF are mining the banks of the Inhulets river in the area marked with purple according to the link in the next tweet.

Special thanks to @sovietarmyfan
for always bringing me useful information.

I have now gotten confirmation about this being a pontoon bridge under construction, stretching along the bank.

So what I think the Russians are doing is pre building a pontoon bridge in that small channel in to larger segments. When needed they can just tow them out and assemble them close to the train bridge. Possibly anchor it to it. This way they can deploy it extremely fast.

I would expect them to use roads close to the bridge for easy access. For long time use, this probably isn't great.

But if you step up your air defense in the area, and you know when the satellites are passing, and you have a bit of luck with the weather, you could possibly get a decent head start tot transfer equipment.

It would be interesting if the UA attacks on the bridges were just a feint to lure out the RU bridging equipment, have them move it closer so it can be destroyed before it is used to escape. Far fetched, I know.

Nailed it.

The Russian temporary railway bridge in Kup'yans'k has been repaired. It was damaged a few weeks ago, after being blessed by the Russian railway wizard.

This bridge barely takes a car, I would think IFVs will have trouble using it. I'm marking it as yellow. h/t @denistorr_

h/t @denistorr_

Bridge at Novosofiivka, also not drivable even if it would be whole. @denistorr_