Hard to overstate how wrong the red wave take was.
Look at the Senate races. Fetterman, Warnock, Kelly, Cortez Masto, Hassan all have public polls at 49/50.
There are polls w/Rubio, Abbott, Kemp, Grassley in the 40s, and Johnson, Vance, Oz, Walker are in low to mid 40s. 1/
There is - literally - no evidence of a red wave anywhere. Any objective look at public polling right now shows the landscape favoring Dems, w/GOPers underperforming everywhere, struggling to raise money.
Strong D performance in NE special mattered. 2/
apnews.com/article/2022-m…
Analysts overly discounted what an extremist mess GOP has become. Think this discussion is instructive but not quite right - it's not just abt hard primaries. It's going to be hard for any GOPer to unite traditional Rs w/MAGA. R thing is so ugly rn. 3/
The ongoing GOP underperformance in polling is something I call "The MAGA hangover."
Folks voted in record numbers against MAGA in the last two elections, and once the GOP ran towards MAGA this time 2022 was going to be hard for them.
More here 👇4/
Some of you have been bringing up "gerrymandering." Let's discuss that.
Redistricting this time was a draw, perhaps even a little favorable towards Ds. Estimate is we need to win natl vote by 2 pts to keep the House. That is certainly within reach. 5/
apnews.com/article/congre…
There are a few ways to spend a bit more time w/this analysis. In post 4 you can link thru to the core written version on our site.
Next, I sat down with @JoeTrippi for an indepth discussion of the 2022 elections. It's a great conversation. 6/
@JoeTrippi Was also lucky enough to have an indepth chat with the venerable @jonathanalter. This too is very much worth checking out. Was a great conversation. 7/
oldgoats.substack.com/p/forget-the-r…
Finally, got to spend some time with the very sharp and fired up/ready to go @AuthorKimberley for her #StartMeUp podcast. This too was a great conversation, and so appreciated her optimism about the election. Was refreshing, inspiring.
Check it out. 8/
@AuthorKimberley Oh, and there is also this new smart take from @nicolenarea in @voxdotcom. 9/
Many have asked…but what about this thing in 2010, or don’t all midterms break against party in power?
My answer is all elections are unique and are never like another.
All you can do is work with the data you have about the current election.
That’s what I’ve tried to do.
From @NateSilver538:
While I think his Dem vote intensity number is lower than many other polls, it's pretty significant that @chucktodd is now openly talking about how traditional midterm political physics may not be at play this election.
It's what the data is telling us.
Um, this data could explain why we've seen the polls move towards Ds in recent weeks, and GOP underperformance just about everywhere.
2018 youth vote for Dems was among best in recent history. If we match or surpass that we will have a good election.
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