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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Simon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
Political Strategist, Commentator, Hopium Purveyor | NDN, DNC, DCCC, Clinton War Room, ABC News | Slava Ukraini! | My home - https://t.co/TkYENB1TD4
48 subscribers
Nov 21 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me. For reference:

Nov 5 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris

There is no data right now suggesting he's winning 9 of 10 forecasters went into E-D with Harris now ahead:

Nov 5 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/ - The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.

Released a video on this yesterday 👇2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-days-to-go…
Nov 4 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.

Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit. Image Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
Oct 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
Oct 21 • 15 tweets • 5 min read
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an… Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Oct 12 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
So, a short thread about why it is so important to Trump that it be perceived that he is leading in the polls when he isn't.

In sum - it is his campaign's primary strategy to obscure his historic ugliness. 1/ Trump may be a rapist, fraudster, traitor and 34 times felon but he is leading in the polls and is strong.

Trump may be a dangerous extremist, a bigot, misogynist and a racist but he is leading in the polls and is strong. 2/
Oct 11 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Of last 15 general election polls released in PA, 12 have right/GOP affiliations.

Their campaign to game the polling averages and make it appear like Trump is winning - when he isn't - escalated in last few days.

Polling averages new post-Helene MAGA disinfo target. Image I will have more data tomorrow but I urge journalists and researchers to dive into @FiveThirtyEight and see how the red wave pollsters have flooded the zone again.

MT, PA, NC were initial targets but now it's all 7 battleground states. 2/

Sep 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Remarkable number of GOP/right-wing aligned pollsters in the averages right now, and it should not surprise anyone to see them start producing polls showing, all of a sudden, the election moving to Trump and the Rs! What they did in 2022. Can't fall for it again this time. Here's one of these GOP-aligned pollsters taking credit for helping move the NC 538 average to Trump. 2/ Image
Sep 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As we head to Arizona this week a reminder that immigration rarely performs for Rs as a general election issue. Trump ended the 2018 midterms with caravans and fearmongering and we won by 8.6 pts. Voters available to us usually care about other issues far more. 1/ A majority of the country is reconciled to our more diverse future. Obama won with 53% in the vote in 2008, Harris is hitting 50% in many polls now. 2/
Sep 23 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
On the NYT polls:
- PA +4, AZ -5 for Harris. Both states voted the same in 2020. 9 pts apart this time?
- Recent NYT polling has been 3-4 pts more R than overwhelming majority of polls.
- Here's most recent @MorningConsult battleground tracker: 1/

@MorningConsult This chart has problems.
- Polls from before the debate? We have post-debate polls like Morning Consult above
- 2 of 5 pollsters cited have clear GOP affiliation - Cygnal, Data Orbital - not noted as such
- NC Emerson poll has Harris up 1, 49%-48%. 2/ Image
Sep 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Creating a narrative that he's winning not losing is now an existential issue for Trump and his allies:
- that is he winning and strong and that we are losing and weak is his entire campaign. He is nothing w/o it
- he needs data showing him winning to contest the election 1/ Investing in creating a false narrative that Rs are doing better than polls/data suggest is what they did in 2022, and we should expect them to do it again this time.

Dems should not be doing anything to help them red wave this election too. 2/

Sep 13 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Doing a short thread for our Dem family about best ways to respond to positive data like this below.
1) Don't dismiss, diminish, but, however the data. It is good data. Let it be good. Share it. Delight in it. 1/ 2) Comments that "natl polls don't matter only state polls do" is some of the absolutely stupidest things people write on Twitter. Of course national polls matter. We have elections in all 50 states, and the state polls often move with the national data. Both matter. 2/
Aug 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A reminded Trump/MAGA have been lying about the 2020 election for almost 4 years now; they lied about a red wave coming in 2022; and they lie about this election and their opponents every single day.

It's an unending tornado of bullshit - media cannot play stenographer here. The Trump campaign is lying about Walz’s 24 years of military service. And the lies are crude, easily debunked, puerile, desperate and disgraceful.
Jun 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Biden gains in new polling:
- Fox News 3 pt Biden gain (8 pts since March)
- Echelon 4 pt Biden gain
- CBS/YouGov 3 pt Biden gain
- Morning Consult 2 pt Biden gain
- Yahoo/YouGov 2 pt Biden gain
- NYT 2 pt Biden gain
Election appears to be changing now 1/
foxnews.com/official-polls… The Politico/Ipsos poll this week found a significant potential weakening of Trump with independents and Republicans post-felony verdict. 2/ Image
Jun 8 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In May 272,000 jobs were created in US, far exceeding expectations. Wage growth was robust. My job tracker now comes in at:

33.8m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.6m jobs - 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump

Biden 8x jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents *combined* 1/ Image The job creation rate has been 40x greater per month under Biden than under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Last month's 272,000 jobs is over 2 years of GOP growth in a single month. 2/ Image
May 30 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Very much enjoyed this smart @RonBrownstein @CNN deep dive into data suggesting that Biden is doing better with voters more likely to vote in 2024, and Trump is doing a bit better with a wider electorate that includes many disinterested voters. 1/

cnn.com/2024/05/29/pol… To me the biggest question is what happens with those disinterested voters who go through the process of becoming a voter. Will they come to vote more like those who are paying closer attention and become more Dem and help Biden win? I think this is the likely scenario. 2/
May 26 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In 2022 Rs worked hard to craft the false "red wave" narrative about the election.

They're doing it again this year - lies about size of crowds, fundraising; claiming polling lead when there isn't one; showy events in D states, voting groups. 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/voting-on-da… This bravado is covering for very weak GOP, who've been losing elections across US, struggling to raise hard dollars, underperforming public polls in primaries, dozens of party leaders indicted, natl campaign a shambles, more "bad candidate" problems 2/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidenc…
May 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Some notes on NYT poll...

Like other recent polls we see MI/PA/WI up for grabs and Biden performing better among LVs.
NYT LVs, Biden-Trump:
MI 47-46
PA 45-48
WI 46-47 (Biden leads among RVs)

More on why Biden's strength w/LVs matters below: 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidenc… As with other recent polling, findings about life satisfaction remain remarkably high.

74% satisfied
22% not satisfied

Simply there is not broad discontent in America, part of why Dems keep winning elections across US. 2/ Image
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In other news it is now undeniable that there is a Russian fifth column operating in United States trying to destroy the country and the global democracy movement from within.

In the last week Kennedy made it clear he is seeking to become a leader of this fifth column. That MAGA is a Russian fifth column is now being openly discussed by Republican leaders themselves as they look on in horror at what has become of the party of Reagan.

Apr 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
With another roaring jobs report - 303,000!!! - my monthly jobs tracker now comes in at:

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.2m jobs = 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump

8 times more Biden jobs than last 3 R Presidents COMBINED. 1/ Image The rate of job growth has been 40 times higher under Biden than it was under the last 3 GOP Presidents. 40 times. Last month's 303,000 jobs would be 2 1/2 years of job growth under Republicans. 2/ Image