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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Simon Rosenberg
@SimonWDC
Political Strategist, Commentator, Hopium Purveyor | NDN, DNC, DCCC, Clinton War Room, ABC News | Slava Ukraini! | My home - https://t.co/TkYENB1TD4
Lenny Marlow Profile picture eDo Profile picture Oy Vey Profile picture BlueGlowAgave 🌻 Profile picture JT Styl Profile picture 45 subscribed
Sep 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Remarkable number of GOP/right-wing aligned pollsters in the averages right now, and it should not surprise anyone to see them start producing polls showing, all of a sudden, the election moving to Trump and the Rs! What they did in 2022. Can't fall for it again this time. Here's one of these GOP-aligned pollsters taking credit for helping move the NC 538 average to Trump. 2/ Image
Sep 24 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As we head to Arizona this week a reminder that immigration rarely performs for Rs as a general election issue. Trump ended the 2018 midterms with caravans and fearmongering and we won by 8.6 pts. Voters available to us usually care about other issues far more. 1/ A majority of the country is reconciled to our more diverse future. Obama won with 53% in the vote in 2008, Harris is hitting 50% in many polls now. 2/
Sep 23 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
On the NYT polls:
- PA +4, AZ -5 for Harris. Both states voted the same in 2020. 9 pts apart this time?
- Recent NYT polling has been 3-4 pts more R than overwhelming majority of polls.
- Here's most recent @MorningConsult battleground tracker: 1/

@MorningConsult This chart has problems.
- Polls from before the debate? We have post-debate polls like Morning Consult above
- 2 of 5 pollsters cited have clear GOP affiliation - Cygnal, Data Orbital - not noted as such
- NC Emerson poll has Harris up 1, 49%-48%. 2/ Image
Sep 13 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Creating a narrative that he's winning not losing is now an existential issue for Trump and his allies:
- that is he winning and strong and that we are losing and weak is his entire campaign. He is nothing w/o it
- he needs data showing him winning to contest the election 1/ Investing in creating a false narrative that Rs are doing better than polls/data suggest is what they did in 2022, and we should expect them to do it again this time.

Dems should not be doing anything to help them red wave this election too. 2/

Sep 13 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Doing a short thread for our Dem family about best ways to respond to positive data like this below.
1) Don't dismiss, diminish, but, however the data. It is good data. Let it be good. Share it. Delight in it. 1/ 2) Comments that "natl polls don't matter only state polls do" is some of the absolutely stupidest things people write on Twitter. Of course national polls matter. We have elections in all 50 states, and the state polls often move with the national data. Both matter. 2/
Aug 8 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
A reminded Trump/MAGA have been lying about the 2020 election for almost 4 years now; they lied about a red wave coming in 2022; and they lie about this election and their opponents every single day.

It's an unending tornado of bullshit - media cannot play stenographer here. The Trump campaign is lying about Walz’s 24 years of military service. And the lies are crude, easily debunked, puerile, desperate and disgraceful.
Jun 19 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Biden gains in new polling:
- Fox News 3 pt Biden gain (8 pts since March)
- Echelon 4 pt Biden gain
- CBS/YouGov 3 pt Biden gain
- Morning Consult 2 pt Biden gain
- Yahoo/YouGov 2 pt Biden gain
- NYT 2 pt Biden gain
Election appears to be changing now 1/
foxnews.com/official-polls… The Politico/Ipsos poll this week found a significant potential weakening of Trump with independents and Republicans post-felony verdict. 2/ Image
Jun 8 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In May 272,000 jobs were created in US, far exceeding expectations. Wage growth was robust. My job tracker now comes in at:

33.8m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.6m jobs - 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump

Biden 8x jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents *combined* 1/ Image The job creation rate has been 40x greater per month under Biden than under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Last month's 272,000 jobs is over 2 years of GOP growth in a single month. 2/ Image
May 30 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Very much enjoyed this smart @RonBrownstein @CNN deep dive into data suggesting that Biden is doing better with voters more likely to vote in 2024, and Trump is doing a bit better with a wider electorate that includes many disinterested voters. 1/

cnn.com/2024/05/29/pol… To me the biggest question is what happens with those disinterested voters who go through the process of becoming a voter. Will they come to vote more like those who are paying closer attention and become more Dem and help Biden win? I think this is the likely scenario. 2/
May 26 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
In 2022 Rs worked hard to craft the false "red wave" narrative about the election.

They're doing it again this year - lies about size of crowds, fundraising; claiming polling lead when there isn't one; showy events in D states, voting groups. 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/voting-on-da… This bravado is covering for very weak GOP, who've been losing elections across US, struggling to raise hard dollars, underperforming public polls in primaries, dozens of party leaders indicted, natl campaign a shambles, more "bad candidate" problems 2/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidenc…
May 13 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Some notes on NYT poll...

Like other recent polls we see MI/PA/WI up for grabs and Biden performing better among LVs.
NYT LVs, Biden-Trump:
MI 47-46
PA 45-48
WI 46-47 (Biden leads among RVs)

More on why Biden's strength w/LVs matters below: 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/more-evidenc… As with other recent polling, findings about life satisfaction remain remarkably high.

74% satisfied
22% not satisfied

Simply there is not broad discontent in America, part of why Dems keep winning elections across US. 2/ Image
Apr 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
In other news it is now undeniable that there is a Russian fifth column operating in United States trying to destroy the country and the global democracy movement from within.

In the last week Kennedy made it clear he is seeking to become a leader of this fifth column. That MAGA is a Russian fifth column is now being openly discussed by Republican leaders themselves as they look on in horror at what has become of the party of Reagan.

Apr 6 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
With another roaring jobs report - 303,000!!! - my monthly jobs tracker now comes in at:

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
15.2m jobs = 3+ yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump

8 times more Biden jobs than last 3 R Presidents COMBINED. 1/ Image The rate of job growth has been 40 times higher under Biden than it was under the last 3 GOP Presidents. 40 times. Last month's 303,000 jobs would be 2 1/2 years of job growth under Republicans. 2/ Image
Feb 28 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Morning after Michigan thread:
- Biden wins big, breaks 80%, uncommitted at a very modest 13%. Opposition to Biden foreign policy limited, but intense.
- Trump underperforms public polling again, 4th state in a row. Trump/RNC are struggling. More 👇1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/bidens-succe… For Dems, big takeaway - there just isn't a big backlash in party against Biden's handling of Israel-Hamas:
- Uncommitted got 11% vs Obama in 2012, 13% vs Biden
- In Econ/YouGov Dems approve of Biden for pol 71-21, 18-29s year olds give good marks. 2/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/joe-biden-is…
Feb 21 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Stop calling Trump a strong candidate. He
- isn't leading or favored in national polling 👇
- was outraised by Nikki Haley last month
- is burning through $$$$
- underperformed NH polls by 10-15 pts
- is losing all his court cases, badly
- his party is broke, struggling
- NY-3! The GOP = unprecedented shitshow:
- got beat in 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023, struggling in early 2024
- leadership ousted, dozens indicted
- broke, burning cash
- House Members abandoning ship
- flacking Russia disinfo, serially betraying the country
- nominee is bat shit crazy
Feb 14 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
As we await the results of NY-3 tonight, a reminder that the Democratic Party has been on a remarkable run of late.

More in my analysis below, and a few points here in a thread. 1/

hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-democrat… Dems have won more votes in 7 of past 8 Presidential elections, the best popular vote run of an American political party in history.

In the last 4 Pres elections, we've averaged 51%, Rs 46%. It's our best run since FDR's 4 elections 80+ yrs ago. 2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-democrat…
Feb 2 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
Holy moly - a huge jobs report!

479,000 new jobs with revisions, average hourly earnings up 0.6 in a single month! Let's get to the mighty monthly jobs thread...

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
14.8m jobs = 3 yrs Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs 2 Bushes, Trump 1/ Image Jobs have been created at more than 40 times the rate under Biden as under the last 3 GOP Presidents.

Note that R Presidents averaged 120,000 jobs created PER YEAR for 16 yrs, while 353,000 were created LAST MONTH alone. 2/ Image
Feb 1 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
More 2024 warnings signs for the GOP - Trump spent $50m on legal bills in 2023 and spent more than he raised. Via @politico. Big yikes. Image Democrats have enormous fundraising advantages in the Senate battlegrounds. Republicans are struggling to raise money. Via @washingtonpost
Jan 16 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
The first stop Trump is making tomorrow, after his Iowa win, is a trial where the court has ALREADY determined he has committed sexual assault.

The Republican frontrunner is a sex offender. Full stop. How can a man like that lead anything? That is the story tomorrow. That a court has found that Trump committed sexual assault would make it impossible for him to be hired in almost any job in America. This is the question that needs to be put to voters in polling - do you want someone who tried to rape someone as your leader?
Jan 5 • 10 tweets • 4 min read
216,000 new jobs, beating expectations, 3.7% unemploy. rate, wage growth near 5% annualized - another really good jobs report!

Let the mighty jobs day thread begin...

33.8m jobs = 16 yrs Clinton, Obama
14.3m jobs = 35 months Biden
1.9m jobs = 16 yrs Bush, Bush, Trump 1/ Image Jobs have been created at more than 40 times the rate under Biden than under the last 3 GOP Presidents. Last month was almost two years of job growth under the Bushes and Trump. Econ track record of GOP since Cold War ended among worst in US history. 2/Image
Jan 4 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Trump is weak, not strong.

- 35% to 40% of Rs not supporting him nationally
- Majorities of Rs not with him in the early states
- GOP has meaningfully splintered, keeps losing elections
- Olympian negatives, will make it near impossible for him to win
- New Hampshire Trump will not be able to withstand ads which remind us:
- courts have *already* determined he committed sexual assault, years long financial fraud, insurrection
- he's taken more money from foreign governments than any US politician in history, incl from China, as President 1/