Thread by @AndrewPerpetua

My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

The war is heating up.

If you would like to view the map: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…

The Kharkiv area is more or less status quo. There is fighting along the line and artillery fire both inside the city and around pretty much every settlement along the line.

South east of Kharkiv, closer to Izyum, Russia performed recon overnight and into the morning near Husarivka (1) and then during the day they attacked the town (2). The attack was repelled.

South of Izyum, I am steadily growing my area of uncertainty around Bohorodychne. It could be true that Ukraine controls Pasika, but I have not seen confirmation. Each passing day without news of Russian movement I have expanded by uncertainty towards of Pasika.

Ukrainian defenders repelled an attack on Dmytrivka (3) and destroyed a Russian sabotage group near Dolyna (4). This area is very quite ever since Russia withdrew most of their forces.

Ukraine could end up liberating most of these towns in the coming weeks. I suspect Ukraine could push Russia back to the river, and Russia may try to hold a bridgehead in Izyum itself (A) if not further south in Topolske, Donetske, and Kamyanka (B).

(I made Russian controlled area south of the River purple for the purpose of this image, to make it more obvious where the river is).

In the Siversk area, Russia and Ukraine are conducting artillery duels, but there hasn't been much movement. Today, Russian recon were spotted near Serebrianka (5) and driven away.

Russia plans to capture Bakhmut, but it has been heavily fortified with concrete bunkers, trenches, and tunnel systems. Before Bakhmut, they must first fight through Yakovlivka (6), Soledar (7), Bakhmutske (8), Pokrovske (9), Vesela Dolyna (10), Vershyna (11), and Zaitseve.

There is heavy fighting all along this line. Russia is struggling to completely capture Pokrovske (9), and the same is likely true in Vershyna (11), although it is possible I have exaggerated the extent of their success in the latter case.

There is ongoing fighting in Semyhirya (12), where I believe Ukraine is performing a fighting withdrawal towards Kodema in an effort to slow Russian forces as engineers work to build more defenses.

In the Donetsk area, Russia wants to capture Avdiivka, and they are making a concerted effort to capture the city. The forces in this area are low on infantry, and the defenses around Avdiivka are extremely deep and well developed.

There are many, many lines of defense that Russia will have to push through to capture this area. Today, Russia attacked Kamyanka, but the attack was destroyed by artillery (13).

Russians apparently took some ground around Avdiivka (14), but I couldn't find information about it and I mapped it arbitrarily. I will update it to be more accurate if I can find more information.

Russia attacked Pisky from two angles (15,16) and both attacks were repelled.

The Zaporizhzhia area has been marked by artillery duels dating back many weeks. Ukraine has had an advantage in quality, while Russia has had an advantage in quantity.

In the long run, Ukrainian artillery have been gradually grinding down Russian artillery, and now their artillery has been weakened to the extent that Ukraine has been able to capture some land (C,D,E,F).

Today, Russia launched counter attacks towards Dorozhnyanka (17) which shows that my belief that Ukraine had captured Kostyantynivka was incorrect. The attack was repelled. Russia tried to drive Ukrainian forces out of Inzhenerne (18), but they failed.

Nesterianka (19) is contested and there is ongoing fighting. A Russian counter attack towards Shcherbaky (20) was repelled. Ukrainian forces are trying to move south to capture Konovalova.

A bit further south, on the 29th Ukraine launched missile strikes, probably HIMARS, into Russian strongholds near Novopoltavka and Verkhnii Tokmak in the Chernihivka area.

Today there are reports that Russian forces have withdrawn the bulk of their forces in these two towns and moved them in the directions of Berdyansk (21) and Tokmak (22). Ukrainian sources claim fewer than 100 Russians remain in each of these two strongholds.

Russians claim these movements are part of a rotation and that these forces will be replaced.

In Kakhovka, a video came out showing how a Russian collaborator was wounded by a bomb (23).

The collaborator, Yefimenko Vitaly, also known as Yukhym, is infamous for his promise to massacre all pro-Ukrainian residents in Kherson oblast. Reportedly, his car was armored, which may have saved his life.

Russian forces are repairing the Antonovskiy Bridge by laying large slabs of concrete on top of the holes through the driving surface (24). Something tells me this temporary solution will be exceptionally temporary.

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian train with HIMARS in Brylivka (25), dealing tremendous damage to both material and personnel. I read that all of the engineers and mechanics on the train were killed, along with perhaps 3 dozen other vehicles.

Ukrainian long range rockets, likely HIMARS, also struck an ammunition warehouse in Skadovsk (26). Reportedly, Ukraine watched Russians unload supplies into this warehouse for several days before deciding to destroy it. After all, you need to maximize the bang for your buck.