Thread by @MuffinmanMagic

Some thoughts on BEV and coal

How much electricity does the avg BEV consume?

Avg mileage is 12785mi/year at 0,346kWh/mi

Thats 4880kWh/year per BEV (incl 10% charging loss)

Lets look at the energy mix

(1/5)

21,8% of US electricity is generated from coal

Thats 1063kWh per BEV per year additional demand from coal

Coal plants need 1191 pounds of coal per BEV per year to generate that (0,6tons)

But how many BEV will there be?
(2/5)

Mr Biden wants to have >50% BEV of all cars sold by 2030
Lately 15m cars were sold per year in the US
So the target is 7,5m additional BEV per year by 2030
That would add 4,5m tons of coal demand per year at current share in the mix
(3/5)

Avg lifeycle of a car is >12 years

We can expect that the additional load on the grid of these BEV will add up until 2030 esp since there are currently very few EV on the roads
If we assume linear growth from lately 600k to 7,5m/y we may assume to add 27,6m BEV until 2030
(4/5)

These 27,6m BEV would need 16,6m tons of coal a year to get charged

Can renewables be ramped up fast enough to not only serve the rising demand but also decrease the share of coal?
I didnt even look at hybrid cars or electric house heating...
Or might coal stay for longer?

END

See previous tweets
BEV demand for coal
$BTU
#CoalTwitter
Seems like $arch doesnt want to be around when this comes to fruition