Samsung is reporting a loss on its memory chip business for the first time since 2008
Note the absolute lack of capex discipline plus unwillingness?
It remembered me of 2008 and it triggered me to see how $nvda did back then
1/4 🧵
techspot.com/news/97797-sam… So what was happening 2008ff?
Semi market was flip flopping from glut to shortage back to glut as demand was hit by banks tightening lending standards due to gfc
Sounds familiar?
So how did $nvda do back then?
2/4

ft.com/content/53e622…

There has been alot discussions on Santa rally and January effect

So what does a Muffin do on a hangover Jan 1st morning ?
Statistics!
Yeay!

Have a look on that stat. Since 1999 in 5/5 cases whenever Santa rally was red January was red too

1/5

https://twitter.com/seowie/status/1605872153324187648?s=20&t=e4-e4RAyYa5VRwNFOv9pnQ

Also there is this seasonality chart for Bear markets since 1965 which does not favor any kind of January effect

2/5

The german federal network agency today released its latest report regarding gas supply

Two indicators are now in the cricital range:
Temperature forecast
Gas consumption

Gas consumption was -5% compared to previous years, needs to be -20% to meet targets
1/3 Temperature in CW49 was 2,7°C below previous years avg and further forecast is also too cold to meet targets

Gas storage is currently drained >1% per day, which is faster then required to make it through winter

As predicted germany relies on the return of mild weather to
2/3

Schlumberger overall confirms PANR modeling of lateral flow rates derisking commerciality COS for those projects

3/4 The blockage has been cleared mostly as the CTU wasnt the ideal equipment for the job but the only one that was available

Flow test commenced with encouraging early results

3/4

Josh Young wrote an article about his favorite company $panr on SeekingAlpha

His thesis is, that the price paid at the latest lease sale auction is a metric to valuate the whole company

His conclusion is that $PANR is massively overvalued

A🧵1/6

https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1/status/1599771554946039809?s=20&t=OVZh2Ji6WEXaZvsMfKcceQ

Claim 1
Josh claims the market value of the leases was determined in the lease auction

Fact is that those auctions regularly attract just one bidder per lease, see quotes
-> there is no market

One could claim that means those leases are worthless so they dont get bid
2/6

I took a look at the last times $PANR was getting beat down
1) The April 2021 operational update
In reaction to the release the stock dropped 44%
It took 49 trading sessions and a resource upgrade to recover
The bottom was in on the day of the release 2) The Peel Hunt note
After the release the stock dropped 34% and it took 56 trading sessions to recover (6 days after material operational update)
The bottom was in 39 days after the release

Energiewende-madness part X

Neue Züricher Zeitung evaluated the utilization factors of 18k german windmills by analyzing the hourly local weatherdata of the last 10 years

Results
1/4 of mills run <20% capacity

These can only be ran on tax subsidies
1/10
nzz.ch/visuals/windkr… 15% of mills run at >30% cap of which only 2 (pieces not %) are in southern germany

These values are likely still to high as they dont account for throttling or halting of mills due to emissions regulations

83% of the 1/6th of mills which run effectively are near the coast
2/10

This is pure Gold!

German Newspaper "Die Welt" has reviewed 166 documents concerning the stress test and other processes regarding the german nuclear power plant flip flopping

A short 🧵

welt.de/wirtschaft/plu… 1) Despite claiming that the evaluation would be free from ideology the result has been pre defined before the relevant info was available
2) Pro Nuclear arguments have not been considered in the evaluation and were not mentioned in the report

@NinoPlava @oilmutt This guy has such noble intentions he blocked me for providing the missing context to his cropped snippets

Seems he doesnt like it when people question his campaign

Instead of doing proper DD he tries to shut critics down

I provide more examples in follow up @NinoPlava @oilmutt Here he tried to present a simple pipeline plumbing challenge as a job stopper

https://twitter.com/MuffinmanMagic/status/1575699242496454656?s=20&t=F4q-7xHlE6_izI1kl1yc8g

$panr $pthrf

This Petroleum News article stirred up the Panr shareholders (and shorters) today
petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/637…

There was the thesis that PANR operations might get delayed due to the fact that there is a hearing on flaring gas for longer periods on 27th October

A 🧵1/9 I recommend to read the whole article at least twice

First of all Michael Duncan said they might test the reservoir for 9 months
Panr currently holds an approval by the DOG to run 7,5 months of testing

So they requested to extend this period to 9 monhts

2/9

Interesting article

China added 300m tons a year thermal coal mining capacity to secure their energy demand and avoid further energy shortages which harm industry just like we see them in europe
Total capacity now up to 4400m t/year

Lets put these numbers into perspective!

1/4

https://twitter.com/Z22Holding/status/1571467483508518912

The whole EU produces less then 60m tons of thermal coal (hard coal) per year and consumes about 150m t of it

Clmpare that to china, yes they just added twice the consumption of whole europe. This year
and they will consume ~30x more coal then climate white knight europe

2/4

$aapl

Here is my simple guesstimation for the fair value of apple

Tech comps have profited from fiscal conditions, especially since 2020
This is $aapl vs inverted US10y yield

In 2018 when fed tightened aapl fell to 37$
10y yield was similar to now
But need some adjusting

1/4 Adjusting sp target (37$) for increased free cashflow:

FCF Factor (22 vs 18) = 1,68
Adj for FCF fair value = 62$

Adj. for increased EPS / buybacks:

EPS FY 22 = 6,1
EPS FY 18 = 3
EPS Factor = 2,03x
adj for EPS SP fair value = 75$

2/4

Report from the front.
Here are the details of the 65b€ energy relief pack no3 of the german govt
1) Electricity price cap for the basic consumption, which means you get a yet unknown number of kWh per month at an yet unknown discount to the market
🧵1/5

tagesschau.de/inland/entlast… 2)Pensioners get a one time payment of 300€ this year
3)Child benefit increase by 18€ for the 1st and 2nd child from 01/23
4)Additional child benefit for low income households to be raised from 229 to 250€ per month from 01/23
5)Energy stimmy for students 200€ once in '23
2/5

Here are some graphics of some key data for $btu I have done for my analysis lately
Might be interesting for some of you as well

So this is their revenue in the international markets in '21 and '20

Noteable their revenues grew in Asia ex-China due to higher NEWC px
🧵1/8 Rev growth over the last three half yrs for the segments and in total
Seab. Thermal is sold close to spot px
You can see in the price chart how it underperformed due to weather and covid
We may expect growth here as conditions improve
Also noteable the -ve impact of derivates
2/8

Today i have looked at solar panels and their link to the coal industry
61,8% of the energy needed for the production of PV panels is generated from coal
But how much energy is consumed globally for the production of PV panels ?
(source:iea.org/data-and-stati…)

A🧵1/7 So at first lets see how much energy is needed to manufacture 1kWp worth of PV panels
Its surprisingly much. 1555 kWh for 1kWp installed power
That means 961 kWh of coal generated electricity are needed per 1kWp of clean solar power
(source: apricum-group.com/electricity-pa…)

2/7

I did this thread about the Other US Thermal segment of $btu a few weeks ago
Today i updated my data with the last Qs results and visualized some data for the other US

The spot price of Illinois basin has been rising further, increasing the spread
1/4

https://twitter.com/MuffinmanMagic/status/1549864007582060545?s=20&t=vq-HA9Wc9i9mOPHYQJy_bg

This graph shows how the Revenues, EBITDA, cost/t and tons sold have evolved over the last quarters

Revenue and EBITDA have been growing despite less tons sold and rising cost

The performance of other US and PRB was negatively impacted by railroad performance
2/4

F*ck you Poootin!

As a good german i cook with coal ofc!

$btu @INArteCarloDoss doing my part here!

Some thoughts on BEV and coal

How much electricity does the avg BEV consume?

Avg mileage is 12785mi/year at 0,346kWh/mi

Thats 4880kWh/year per BEV (incl 10% charging loss)

Lets look at the energy mix

(1/5) 21,8% of US electricity is generated from coal

Thats 1063kWh per BEV per year additional demand from coal

Coal plants need 1191 pounds of coal per BEV per year to generate that (0,6tons)

But how many BEV will there be?
(2/5)

RNS out!

The company has completed the pilot hole, which was stopped in accordance with the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission to avoid penetrating the high pressure HRZ, which could cause failure of the operation

Short 🧵1/3

polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheo… The company has now added ~300ft to the already known 450ft of oil bearing rock.
Initial estimate for the 450ft was 90-135 mbbl recoverable (76mbbl LKA estimate)
The addition of another 300ft implies 66% upside here
Lets look at the company estimates for the previous volume
2/3

Nice find by @penny_student
I always had that little concern that the oil fields discovered by $PANR could be just too big for a pot. purchaser
Could they pay an appropriate price for it?
There's uncertainty if they could exhaust the billions of bbls of oil due to ESG
🧵1/7

https://twitter.com/penny_student/status/1551089616169717762

Lets see whats going on in the world right now

The world is desperate for nat gas. It will be needed for decades to compensate the volatility of renewable energy.
So blackrock wants to aggressively invest in Alaskan nat gas & infrastructure to export it on the global market
2/7

$BTU

Today I did look a little closer on the ominous "Other US Thermal" segment at $BTU
So what is it?
There are six mines within this segment
4 of these mines are within the Illinois basin, see pic
Then there is the El segundo in New Mexico and the Twentymile in Colorado
🧵1/5 The mines in the Illinois basin produced 67% of the 17,1Mt of the other US segment in 2021
They generate 21% of their revenue in the other US thermal and 18% of their EBITDA

The interesting question is, how much upside is there and when might we expect to see more earnings ?
2/5