Thread by @c21st_sailor

#Taiwan. A thread within a thread.

I definitely recommend reading @alessionaval's core thoughts on this. He really does know what is is talking about.

And thanks to @icsc_m for suggesting I might know something on #NavalDiplomacy.

So let me add my thoughts on that.

In my opinion, traditional theories of what navies can do in diplomacy has been too simplistic: binary 'assailant' and 'victim' models with mechanistic approaches of A does something to B and B responds (eg Cable).

I expand on this in my book.

Instead, I think diplomacy is about representation and communication.

So, I define naval diplomacy as:

... a subset of general diplomacy and a means of communication by maritime actors, both state and non-state, in pursuit of their interests.

It's about sending a message.

More likely, however, it's about multiple messages to multiple audiences. This is where it gets a little more complicated.

We need to think about those directly involved, those nearby, those who are watching, and whoever pays the bills.

#StakeholderMapping

Then, when we have an idea who the stakeholders are, and what actions are being seen, we can try to work out what it all means.

I came up with a Why? What? How? Who? model/diagram to show this.

And then I just made it more complicated still, showing some of the things that might apply, like messages of friend or foe, tactics involved, etc.

It isn't as bad as it looks!

How does this apply to Taiwan? Read @alessionaval. But there is a lot of messaging going on - and plenty of tactics.

Beijing is trying to coerce.
Washington is trying to reassure.
Taipei is trying to deter.
(Mix verbs as req!)

And not all audiences are in the region.