1. There's a new #monkeypox technical brief out from @UKHSA. Always an interesting read.
A 🧵
HSA's modeling suggests the outbreak isn't expanding, though they acknowledge cases are certainly being missed and that makes it hard to accurately gauge things.
2. If I'm reading this correctly (not a given), @UKHSA's nowcasting suggests the #monkeypox outbreak has plateaued and maybe is declining?
Full report is here: gov.uk/government/pub…
3. @UKHSA is monitoring the proportion of cases in women as a way of trying to determine if #monkeypox transmission is moving beyond networks of gay, bisexual & men who have sex with men. To date there is no evidence of growth outside the GBMSM sexual networks in the UK.
4. Something that is changing in the UK outbreak: The location of the #monkeypox cases. The number of cases in the SE and NW of England is growing.
5. The vast majority of the UK #monkeypox cases are from the outbreak strain known as B.1. But 2 viruses were from a different lineage, A.2, that was first detected by @CDCgov. @UKHSA suggests there may be more undetected spread of A.2. statnews.com/2022/06/03/gen…
6. How long has #monkeypox been spreading internationally? Within the UK? Neither question is answerable right now, but evidence points to potentially years for question 1. @UKHSA says so far the earliest case they've detected dates to early March.
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