At some point #silver is going to break out and make a new ATH
We can use price action and cycles to identify that infection point
A thread...
There have been 4 weekly cycles since #silver had it's blow off top in August 2020. Everyone is waiting for the weekly cycle that will retest $30 or maybe even more.
During the COVID crash #silver printed a weekly swing high on week 11 of its weekly cycle and then declined 39% over the course of four weeks to a low of $11.64. That was a very short weekly cycle at 14 weeks.
The weekly cycle coming out of the COVID low is the model for a bullish weekly cycle for #silver.
The high came on week 20 and the low was week 27 so very right translated and more importantly we had a 155% rally in that time frame.
The first weekly cycle after that parabolic run was also right translated with the high occurring on week 19 (silversqueeze February 2021)
Though you had to take profits quickly as you can see the huge upper wick for that cycle top.
I remember there was a big reversal midday
What followed were 3 very left translated weekly cycles starting in April 2021.
As you can see in the chart those 3 cycles ended on week 7, 7, and 6 respectively.
This most recent cycle that just ended in July was a real doozy with a 32% decline from peak (ICH) to trough (ICL) and now we find ourselves in a new weekly cycle on week 5 of a new weekly cycle
After all these bearish weekly cycles we are bound to get another bullish one.
It doesn't mean it will lead to a 155% gain but we know what a bullish cycle will start to look like.
Notice the post COVID cycle didn't really accelerate until week 7
As always we will watch the price action closely starting with how this daily cycle closes out.
We know there will be a DC decline at some point so it has to hold a higher low and preserve weekly chart structure by not making a new weekly low
Based on previous daily cycle rallies we would expect this to rally maybe 20% before we start the decline.
So far we have rallied 15% so we really want to make a new high for the daily cycle to keep momentum alive
I don't know if this will be the weekly cycle that gets #silver back to $30 but that will become more clear after this first DCL.
I will be tracking it all here and sharing updates.
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