1/ $ASTS SpaceX and T-Mobile just announced a satellite direct to phone messaging service partnership with the hope of using a slice of T-Mobile PCS spectrum to provide emergency services. A large phased array of 7m will be incorporated into Starlink 2 satellites to enable...
2/ $ASTS ... them to communicate with unmodified cell phones. Sound familiar? The technology is being developed at SpaceX and beta trials will start sometime late 2023. The service will be low speed in nature, totaling 1-2mbits per cell, allowing for intermittent texting and...
3/ $ASTS voice and perhaps some images. The companies will need to get through regulatory approvals and of course they actually have to produce the technology. T-Mobile is asking other carriers to partner with them to offer this service.
4/ $ASTS My takeaways are as follows:
1) This announcement completely validates the underlying science and technology of what @AST_SpaceMobile is doing.
2) Abel has always said that eventually other competitors would come into the market, but that he has a 3-5 yr lead with...
5/ $ASTS +2,400 patent and patent claims. Many concepts that Elon spoke of tonight mirror exactly what Abel adn the company have been working on for years. The race is on!
3) There will eventually be 1-3 large global players that will enjoy oligopoly type of economics...
6/ $ASTS ... and AST has locked up +1.8B subscribers form the largest global MNOs. The market will be attractive for AST and perhaps Starlink.
4) AST is offering a different service, which is high speed broadband internet to your phone which is different than what Starlink ...
7/ $ASTS ... is proposing. Starlink is doing something similar to Lynk - providing texting, messaging and eventually voice. That said, I'm sure Starlink will improve its tech to get to AST's eventually. But remember, there are 2-4 dominant carriers in each country, so enough...
8/ $ASTS ... MNO customers to go around IF Starlink does become successful. Anyhow those are some initial thoughts. It's clear that the technology works, is feasible and the market is highly attractive. Right now I'd be worried if I'm Verizon (no partner) and Iridium.
9/ $ASTS more thoughts to come!
10/ $ASTS So key question folks - how much is @AST_SpaceMobile worth, offering true broadband internet directly to mobile phones, working with all the top MNOs globally covering 1.8B subs w/ +2,400 patents+claims and it's 2nd test satellite going up on Sep 7th?
11/ $ASTS @SpaceX and @TMobile just announced their partnership today and supposed development of the technology in the works. How long will it take for them to catch up? And once they do, how will they overcome the patent war chest without paying royalties?
12/ $ASTS As far as I've been able to gather, the Starlink+TMobile partnership is very early stage. Industry folks saying that it was thrown together and it seems like many sound bites were taken from AST (large aperture phased array, managing doppler shift, etc).
13/ $ASTS this is a massive validation of AST's technology and business. Institutional investors that were dismissive will now have to dig in and learn why Starlink and T-Mobile are trying to get in. Every TMT research analyst on the street will now have to get up to speed on..
14/ $ASTS .. what @AST_SpaceMobile has been developing for YEARS. They will soon learn of the company's BW3 test sat going up soon, +2,400 patents and global MNO partners w/ 1.8B subs. Any institutional investor that wants to be in this area will have one publicly traded...
15/ $ASTS company to own and it happens to be THE LEADER. Yes, that's $ASTS. All eyes will be on AST tomorrow.. when CNBC talks about Starlink/T-Mobile partnership, $ASTS stock along with $TMUS and others will be flashing on the screen. That's awareness which we didn't ...
16/ $ASTS ... before and now we do. Retail, institutions, etc will wonder what $ASTS and dig in. This is the company's coming out party. THIS IS BULLISH. IT'S GONNA BE VOLATILE, BUT 100x BETS ARE NEVER A SMOOTH RIDE.
17/ $ASTS Also the ultimate structure of this industry should be like the cellular tower companies. 2-3 players serving MNOs across the globe enjoying steady growth and healthy margins. That is the ultimate dream ... owning a piece of an oligopoly early. That's what we have here
18/ $ASTS And Raymond James one of the first to cover the news w/ mention of $ASTS!
I just realized, how will FCC approve 30,000 Gen-2 satellites that weigh 1.25 tons a piece w/ 5m x 5m cellular antenna. AST is only asking for 168 total sats for full MIMO global coverage.
19/ $ASTS This is how I gauge the stage of development for the technology, service and potential business model for SpaceX + T-Mobile. With something so profound, wouldn't you have signed partners up already and teed up regulators? From SpaceX update website:
20/ $ASTS Want to know how this technology will work? Watch this @AST_SpaceMobile video released last year. I’m sure @SpaceX and @TMobile did the same. 🤙
21/ $ASTS Research thoughts from Scotia today:
22/ $ASTS 8/26 Morgan Stanley: "AST has partnered with AT&T for a similar service and been granted an experimental authorization for their BlueWalker-3test satellite set to be launched next month"
23/ $ASTS: 👀In 2020, $TMUS and Verizon were so threatened by how disruptive @AST_SpaceMobile + AT&T was going to be they both filed petitions at the FCC to stop the company.
Fast forward to 8/22: $TMUS ate its own complaint and now trying to emulate AST. Imagine that.🚀👀
24/ $ASTS D2D market is “largest opportunity in Satcom’s history”
25/ $ASTS: @AST_SpaceMobile and AT&T - the carrier solely responsible for America's FirstNet emergency responder network, have been working on eliminating deadzones since 2020. Great to see $TMUS / @SpaceX highlight this important and critical market.
lightreading.com/4g3gwifi/space…
26/ $ASTS: Reminder that in addition to its multi-launch agreement w/ @SpaceX, @AST_SpaceMobile has architected its satellites to be compatible w/ an ever growing array of launch platforms to provide maximum flexibility.
27/ $ASTS REGULATORY: Verizon, T-Mobile and Hughes/Dish all tried to lobby the FCC to stop @AST_SpaceMobile from getting US market access. Now T-Mobile switching sides and Hughes/Dish has gone silent. US regulatory approval is much closer to reality than ever before.
28/ $ASTS 8/29 Barclays: “We rate AST SM with an Overweight rating: if the technology scaled as expected we see AST SM’s value proposition as unique with a significant addressable market.”
29/ $ASTS 8/30 Deutsche Bank: “AST SpaceMobile is also developing advanced capabilities with AT&T/ Vodafone/Samsung/others as key partners with plans to launch its BlueWalker 3 test satellite next month.”
These other other DB analysts that don’t cover ASTS
30/ $ASTS great infographic of @AST_SpaceMobile satellites. For those wondering, the co is developing Gen 2, 3, 4 and beyond BlueBirds. Innovation does not rest 🤙 #spacemob
31/ $ASTS Overview of @AST_SpaceMobile MNO partners which account for almost 2B subscribers. Will note that MTN has been confirmed. #spacemob
32/ $ASTS Mainstream Media starting to pickup coverage. @AST_SpaceMobile will become a household name in due time. 🤙 cnet.com/science/space/…
33/ $ASTS who’s ready to rocket on Sep 10th @ 7:50PM ET?!? Keep an eye out as I believe @AST_SpaceMobile will be doing their own livestream on youtube 🤙
34/ $ASTS Access to MNO partner low band spectrum for its great propagation characteristics will highly differentiate @AST_SpaceMobile service!
35/ $ASTS 🔎Started this "Direct to Mobile Device" comparison. Will update as more info comes. Understandably tough for people that aren't following this industry closely.
$GSAT @SpaceX #Spacemob
36/ $ASTS 9/8 @Nomura: "In Japan, Rakuten plans to offer AST's satellite services with frequencies in the 1.7GHz band..."
37/ $ASTS 9/8 Barclays: Reiterates Overweight and $29 PT "if the technology scaled as expected we see AST SM’s value proposition as unique with a significant addressable market."
38/ $ASTS: 9/13 SpaceX bull Morgan Stanley puts out piece today on the D2D opportunity (mentions AST). Sounds like institutional investors are starting to poke around. MS believes addressable market 100x bigger than LEO broadband to remote households and underserved populations.
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