Thread by @ulleryatintell

By request of @jgcOCANADA I wanted to take a little bit of a closer look at our post-Dobbs spike in PA, this time by municipality. This is an extension of last week's thread here

I could start with #BucksCounty but I thought it'd be more interesting to look at the SEPA region of Philly, Bucks, Chester, MontCo and DelCo. Like most of the state, Dems have seen the biggest increases after Dobbs overall. 2/16

The main formula I use is NewDems - NewGOP (DvR), if the number is negative then more Republicans were added. I like my color bars to divide at 0, so I like to make the maximum value the absolute value of our minimum. 3/16

The reason I'm explaining that is to also explain how that previous map is a little skewed here. The highest Republican gains seen in this region was 5 voters, but a -5 to 5 color bar would have heavily skewed the Dems 4/16

So, while this map tells you the basic information that an overwhelming number of new Dems have registered to vote compared to Republicans since Dobbs, it doesn't really put it into perspective. 5/16

First, this is what our DvR is for total voters registered prior to Dobbs. Philly is the Dem stronghold, and the closer the municipality is to Philly, the bluer it tends to be. That Blue streak in ChesCo follows Route 30, btw. I just think its neat 6/16

Also, this is a choropleth map and land doesn't vote, so keep that in mind. Overall, the region generally has a fairly strong GOP presence outside of Philadelphia, mostly in Central and Upper Bucks, upper MontCo and throughout ChesCo and DelCo 7/16

Side by side, before and after Dobbs, the spike doesn't change the overall party demographics. As in my previous thread, it's interesting to see but turnout is all that matters here. 8/16

GOP voters saw some growth throughout the region, albeit most towns saw an average of 10 new Republican voters since Dobbs. However, it does look like the places that saw the most gains are in the same towns with more Dems overall. Deviation from ave was about 44 voters 9/16

This map shows new Dems in SEPA, but I'm using the same scale as the new Republicans for context. On average, Democrats grew by 44 voters per town, roughly 100 times that in Philly. Much of those leads, though, were in Dem strongholds. 10/16

The stats for both parties shows the Dems have grown at a larger rate than GOP voters for sure, but overall it's more like a growth for the status quo before Dobbs than a red, blue or even purple wave of new voters. 11/16

Let's keep that in mind as we look at the state. A couple notes about this map first. The color scale is based on the average number of voters per town excluding Allegheny and Philadelphia. Including them turned most red areas white. 12/16

Real quick though, let's talk about this Pennsyltucky bullshit I keep hearing about. The average DvR without Philly and Allegheny is -56 and 207 with them. Yes, most towns between the major cities lean right, but it's a marginal split. Maybe Pennsylginia? Anway ... 13/16

The post-Dobbs spike wasn't seen in every town, but where it did hit it seems to have followed the same trend as the SEPA region. Dems saw their highest gains in towns where they were already leading and GOP saw some very modest gains elsewhere. 14/16

None of this is really earth shattering news, but I never miss a chance to nerd out on some maps. Anway, Pennsylginia, think about it. 15/16