I'm bullish on #uranium for the long-term. But, there is a significant bearish case for the next 2-3 years that needs some attention. It's a bit complex, but here it is. The short version is that the import ban on Russia is not happening. How do I know this? ...
Prior to June, the DoE never spoke publicly about the risk of Russian nuclear fuel imports stopping, even though they supply at least 40% of US commercial EUP needs and this dependency has existed for 30 years. The DoE still claims it's 20%, but it's at least 39% according to ...
Cameco (who won't embarrass their customers), but it's really 50%-60% according to me (who will).
But in June, we learned that the only cargo ships that will transport the radioactive fuel to the US were stopped because new sanctions on Russia are ...
fnarena.com/index.php/2022…
*suddenly* in effect. Why would such a close ally abruptly stop half of US nuclear fuel without any warning. That's not how Canada usually does this. Just bureaucratic incompetence? No, it wasn't.
Those ships are registered in Canada and that government has been leading ...
the world with excruciatingly complex legalize on what a bad person Putin is and what to do about it. Their special economic measures started in 2014 and have been thoroughly documented online ever since, with many amendments and weekly updates. ...
laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/regulation…
But, why no public warning to the US about June 7th, even after a certain President so publicly chastised Germany for their dependence on Russian gas? Trudeau would have loved to do that. ...
But then, only a week later, *someone* announced that ARRC Line's Class 7 ship had an exemption! So, the EUP shipments would continue. ...
Tim Gitzel mentioned it with only one sentence, "While an exemption by the Canadian government has resolved this issue for now, it highlights the tenuous nature of reliance on Russia or Russian ports for supply."
Wow! The US is so lucky that it was resolved in only 1 week! ...
When has that ever happened before?
Then, in July, the DoE decides to present at a NEI Fuel Forum and WNA in London, to calm panicked nuclear utilities, and a Congressional hearing to reveal (for the very first time) that an import ban is a really bad idea, until a new ...
enrichment plant is built. Suddenly, the DoE finally talks about dependence on Russia, after 30 years! But, not even a mention of the absolutely critical exemption from Canada, that just happened 3 weeks prior? So, what changed at the DoE? They have a deal with Canada now. ...
But, to this day, there has never been ANY official document released publicly that even describes the exemption, in any way. We don't even know when it expires, if it's extendable, what shipping companies are covered or what the ...
washingtonexaminer.com/policy/energy-…
US paid or exchanged to obtain it.
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And for the first person that finds that exemption document, I will buy you a nice steak dinner with an obsessively methodical uranium expert, the next time you are in Texas!
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...
Finally, my point, is that the exemption that keeps the EUP flowing was obviously negotiated in secret and may never be public. Why? Because it's embarrassing to the US and Canadian governments. But it also would probably show that no uranium ban is coming until more ...
enrichment capacity is built in the US (by 2026-2027). It's not just that this deal was done, but that they intend to extend it. That's why it's not public.
But hey, I'm just connecting dots here, and I do have a lot of bullish option spreads on uranium miners.
(End)
I recently wrote the bear case for #Centrus Energy ($LEU), but they will probably be the biggest beneficiary of the US/Canada deal for no import ban. And a secret deal will be very hard for anyone to criticize.
OK! OK! My thesis is NOT a "SIGNIFICANT bearish case" for uranium! I get it. My bad choice of words. The thread is not about dumping uranium. Did I mention that I'm long?
There are bills in Congress for a ban. So, just be reassured that's not happening.
Perhaps I need to explain this?
Utilities always buy their fuel fab and enrichment first, then they know how much U308 to buy and WHEN to take delivery. So, when they don't know where their enrichment is coming from, they tend to wait until they do. That's happening right now.
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