Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #uranium

Most recents (24)

1) The #Uranium #mining #stocks #investing thesis in a nutshell🥜🧵 is that after Fukushima the price of #U3O8 sank, new mine projects were cancelled, many mines closed, investment dropped 💰⤵️ as investors thought "#Nuclear #energy is dying"🪦 but they were wrong!✖️😯 .../2👇 ImageImageImageImage
2) #Nuclear #energy has grown steadily over past decade so that #Uranium demand today is back where it was before Fukushima.🌞⚛️🏗️↗️ A #Nuclear renaissance has been quietly underway for years📈 & has been kicked into high gear by the #ClimateCrisis & #EnergyCrisis.🏎️🏗️⏫ .../3👇 ImageImage
3) Rising #Nuclear demand🌞⚛️🏗️⤴️ as #Uranium supplies declined⛏️⤵️ has led to a massive mined supply deficit⏬ estimated earlier this year by industry consultants at ~65M lbs #U3O8 in 2022, partially offset by ~20M lbs of 'Secondary Supply' from other non-mined sources.⛏️.../4👇 ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
This storm is nearly the size of the entire state of #Florida and it’s relatively unprecedented for a storm this large to also be this powerful. The storm surge is catastrophic. #StormSurge

#climate change denying is going to get more difficult and more expensive
The move from #coal to #nuclear #uranium will keep gaining momentum. I’m deeply invested in this space because I believe it’s the only practical solution that we have. Coal consumption just keeps going up each year. The push to electric vehicles is just pissing in the wind…
The full cycle effect of EV’s without getting the global grid off coal is completely meaningless. Possibly negative when you consider the pollution and power consumption to make and recycle batteries with specialty metals.
Read 15 tweets
Just as the mania and euphoria of the spring passed. So will the panic and depression of this fall...
6 months later we are at a polar opposite time.

The decision to sell down #uranium equities and load up on physical #uranium was a great call.

Today the equities are dirt cheap and should be bought hand over fist.
When most are in pain and many scared shitless, that’s what you have to step up and make your big bets. Just like March 2020… but the reason these lows are made is that few have the discipline to keep dry powder to capitalize.
Read 3 tweets
“History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” - Mark Twain

A long thread on interest rates and the stock market, compared to #uranium prices and a stock.

The bull market of 2004-07 as compared to that of the current 2021-202? /1
The #uranium bull market of the mid 2000s was marked by a period of rising interest rates. Between 2004 and 2006, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 17 times from 1.0% to 5.25% to curb inflation and cool off an overheated economy./2
The stock market however continued on its merry way until mid-2007 when the financial crisis started. Meanwhile inflation in the US ranged from 3%-5.5%.

During this period the S&P returned 31% from 2004 to end of 2007./3
Read 19 tweets
Did someone warn you of the current #inflation, #recession, and #bearmarket in equities? Did you get out or reallocate in time? Breaking even? Maybe even profit?
Did you pay a subscription for those warnings late last year?
I started warning friends about it in 2016.

Read on🧵
When I said that I was warning my friends about it in 2016, I did so because it was clear that #Trump would not be a good president for the US & world #economy long-term, and would increase the odds of #inflation and rising #interestrates.

Late 2016 DMs in Norwegian to a friend: Image
But why am I not linking Twitter screenshots? Well, I haven't been on here for even two years yet, so my oldest conversations are in private FB chats with friends and family, as those were the only people I tried to warn.

2018 chats about #Euribor annual hedging puts re #ECB: Image
Read 19 tweets
In response to DM’s:

Flights Investment Discord -
Please read 🧵 before joining:

$panr $ptal $btu $yca $pslv
#oil #uranium #Commodities
#investing

discord.gg/E46sDzDwt5
2/
In ‘The most important thing' by Howard Mark, he say's....Large amounts of money are not made by buying what everybody likes, they're made by buying what everybody underestimates.
3/
Disclaimer: Nothing in this Discord server is intended as investment advice. We are not your financial advisor, and this is not financial advise. Please, always do your own due diligence when it comes to investing and always take responsibility for your own choices.
Read 6 tweets
#commodities #uranium

To get in alignment with the incoming bottom, likely 1H 2023 (the pivot on monetary tightening and peak USD), several spots will decline by 30% & high beta related equities by up to 60%. Be prudent in ones scale in, we are using future return as a guide.
History indicates 90-95% stock decliners within #commodity sectors often offer interesting recovery returns of 15-20x (all being even), expect this to play out in many cases through 1H 2023.

Where are our bids?
A) where we can obverse Cap/CF <0.5x 3 yrs out
B) Cap < 5% of NPVs
How to use future returns as a scale in guide?

For us we are looking for 8x plus returns over 48 months, so to achieve this an ideal buy in is <5% of NPV and/or <0.5x Cap/CF 3yrs out

These often present themselves near cycle bottoms....

#commodities
#cyclicals
#investing101
Read 6 tweets
.....hence the 1H 2023 incoming bottoming of markets
If you want to get your up and down #uranium cycle legs correct, this is probably more important than anyone else currently....as it dictates the market cycle.
What #uranium specialists lack knowledge on, that generalists are focused on.....
Read 4 tweets
Material up legs are scale down opportunities #uranium
Material down legs (-65% plus) are scale in opportunities (excluding the cycle top).

Demand is increasing by say 3% per year, supply can turn on 10-20% in 2024-2026 assuming $65 plus sustained spot.

$85 likely +15-25% supply

$105 likely +20-30% supply

#uranium
In most #commodity markets supply is stimulated materially over 9-18 months at 65% plus cash margins.

For #uranium we see this to be no different, using sub $35/lb cash costs for compelling projects, over $100/Ib will stimulate a massive wave of fundable projects within 24m.
Read 4 tweets
If your a fuel buyer for a #nuclear power utility and you don’t have 10 year fuel coverage you should get busy because many of you simply will not be able to contract supplies at what your superiors currently think are acceptable prices.
A price spike to at least $200/lb and sustained pricing above $150/lb is going to be required to spur investment flows into the many new mines that will be required. (As well as conversion, enrichment capacity and fuel fabrication)
As soon it will become obvious to all that there is little to no supplies to contract and the market is going to squeeze just like it did in the last cycle. You really need to ask yourself what your thinking?
Read 15 tweets
Did you know where the potentially largest #uranium mines are in the world? Do you know the company that has the most upside in Sweden reinstating uranium mining? $AEE

This scoping study level project has a sub $20/lb AISC given the huge credits from Nickel, Molybdenum and V. Image
Reality check:

Low grade #uranium mines with massive secondary credits = low AISC outcomes

The option value of the Swedish assets to be built into $AEE's stockprice for $5-8 of NPV is 10-20c over the next 1-5 months.
You have been warned $AEE

$URNM entry coupled with #uranium Mining ban removal = satisfactory result
Read 6 tweets
Great news from #Ukraine😌 as all 6 reactors at #Zaporizhzhia #Nuclear plant are in cold shutdown -no fission reactions generating heat, no possibility of runaway chain reactions or other extreme events -making any "radiation release" extremely unlikely thanks to Fukushima ../2🧵
2)Fukushima Daiichi #nuclear reactors were 1960's vintage with no steel-reinforced concrete containment. A loss of backup power led to a hydrogen explosion & radiation release. After Fukushima, ZNPP reactors were upgraded to prevent that from ever happening at #Zaporizhzhia .../3
3)#ZaporizhzhiaNPP's "passive" hydrogen safety systems require no external power so that even if all backup power is lost there can be no hydrogen explosion as happened at Fukushima.🦺 ZNPP's steel-hardened containment domes remove the threat of #nuclear radiation "leaks"🌞 ../4
Read 4 tweets
The more I think about all of the moving parts of the #uranium sector and the various factors affecting this investment, the more difficult it is to summarize into a concise tweet.

Hour-long interviews that feel like they could go for three and still not cover it all...
In an attempt to put a finer point on what I see now and what is incoming for this trade, the primary fundamental development that is underpinning a complex set of variables is the rapid change in Western fuel cycle fundamentals and the resultant shift in utilities' behaviors...
We have to first frame a generalization of utilities' behaviors over the last decade or so, during which all elements of the fuel cycle saw declining price action due to an over-abundance of supply...a veritable "buyers' market." This was a very lengthy directional trend...
Read 16 tweets
Are you ready for the September #Uranium list? There have been a few people in the trade that might be bearish and aren't getting along the best. However, if you are thinking about this trade you need to know all of the characters. (play this video)
Before we start I ask one favor. One of the newer members who has really been active in twitter spaces and YouTube is @LibertyOffense. He is a traders for commodities and uranium and I think a @PalisadesRadio would be perfect for his channel. Retweet / Like
(Top 5) #1 @quakes99
This is the one stop shop for this trade and he does so many great audio interviews (joking). He articulates the thesis and has the connections like no one else on twitter. He has stock picks and is the most followed on twitter for uranium
Read 20 tweets
Dipendenza degli Stati Uniti 🇺🇸 dall'uranio russo 🇷🇺 e dalle sanzioni
– Vladimir Danilov

La crisi energetica, esacerbata negli ultimi mesi dalla politica di sanzioni anti-russe di Washington, è forse la peggiore crisi che si verifichi dal 1973,

- thread 🧵
2/ quando i paesi arabi imposero un embargo petrolifero per protestare contro il sostegno occidentale a Israele nella guerra di Yom Kippur.

Mentre la ricerca di nuove fonti di energia esistenti (relativamente rispettose dell'ambiente) di generare elettricità su scala
3/. industriale continua, le centrali nucleari rimangono una sorta di salvezza per molti dei principali stati del mondo.

Tutto questo ha spinto i paesi a rivisitare la possibilità di utilizzare l'energia nucleare per combattere la crisi energetica.
Read 23 tweets
It’s a little too early to expect model updates, but the 2023 editions of many #uranium s/d forecasts are going to be messy.

I’m expecting both secondary demand and secondary supply within the enrichment models, and both inventory drawdown and restocking depending on region.
One major thing to sort out will be how uranium inventory is distributed within the utility sector. How convergent are {Russian exposure, uncovered SWU requirements, low inventory levels}? E.g. are the utilities now signing high assay SWU contracts also lighter on U inventory?
So the West will see total uranium requirements go up ~11% if operational enrichment tails assay moves from 0.18% to 0.24%.

But if utilities with less enrichment coverage are also light on inventory - their U needs could increase 26% as their demand is less buffered by inventory
Read 5 tweets
1)On Friday Congress was asked for $1.5 Billion in "emergency" funding for "acquisition and distribution of low-enriched #uranium(LEU) and high-assay LEU(HALEU)"🛒 "to address potential future shortfalls in access to Russian uranium and [#nuclear] fuel services"⚛️⛏️🇷🇺 A 🧵../2👇
2)US #Nuclear utilities send #Russia hundreds of $Millions per year under a "Russian Suspension Agreement" US government extended in 2020 that allows utilities to purchase & import 20% of their enriched #Uranium reactor fuel from Russia (about 10M lbs/yr #U3O8 equivalent)😯../3👇
3)US government wants to stop US #Nuclear industry from funding #Russia's war on #Ukraine but haven't yet banned the import of Russian #uranium because it would halt deliveries of 20% of US reactor fuel already in signed contracts, with alternative sources in short supply. ../4👇
Read 9 tweets
1) A diagram to illustrate the huge transition occurring in the #uranium industry.

The lemonade business (fuel enrichment) used to be so bad that they were squeezing every lemon extra long and hard (underfeeding) to get every possible drop (of U235)...
2) But now, no one wants to use Russia's juicers (centrifuges) anymore and we don't have enough (SWU/enrichment capacity) in the West. So, to maintain the same production rate of lemonade (LEU), the lemons will be squeezed faster (overfeeding)...
3) But, this requires more lemons (U308) because more juice is left in the lemons (higher tails assays).

Look at how much the switch from underfeeding to overfeeding increases uranium demand while also producing more depleted UF6 feedstock for the Silex/GLE PLEF project ...
Read 5 tweets
@Flash43191300 HERE IS REAL #Chernobyl story. IN 1992, Bill Zoller, 79, visited Chernobyl a #UW chemistry professor who studied the atmosphere. #AEA asked Zoller, for his assessment of what was going on with Ukrainian reactor meltdown that had taken place on April 26, 1986. #nuclearmeltdown
@Flash43191300 #Uranium, steel, concrete and sand had melted to form a radioactive, glasslike lava that melted through several #floors, eventually #solidifying in the #basement. Because of its shape, it was called the Elephant’s Foot.
@USNavy @USArmy #STEM
@Flash43191300 his Ukrainian host gave him a photographic slide. It was of the Elephant’s Foot.
“Go ahead; pass the image around the West,” Zoller says the man told him. “I don’t have any way of getting it out there. @washingtonpost @guardian @NATO @USNATO
Read 5 tweets
@ChapmanScpa does some good work here with the information that is available to him. And here I am to offer my extra bit of colour. A few of my thoughts below:

#uranium
Firstly - Chapman identified the enrichment level of some inventory (~2%) and that BWRs are wonky. Put another way - if one were to sell material, it’s easier to sell “standard assay” in the 4.X range (esp 4.95%) and harder to sell low assay odd lots.
Secondly - it is my impression that Japanese nuclear fuel accounting uses purchase price rather than mark-to-market accounting. So generally speaking Japanese inventories contracted pre-2011 are probably MORE valuable than market and may look more valuable than they actually are.
Read 11 tweets
#92E $NTELF & $ISO.v $ISENF & $NXE.to $NXE
shares / companies are connected

Here's how ⏬
#uranium
1/
NexGen $NXE.to holds 50.1% of the outstanding IsoEnergy $ISO.v common shares
2/
4/14/21 $ISO.v closed a transaction based on a Heads of Agreement with #92E for 92 Energy to acquire a 100% interest in Clover, Gemini & Tower uranium properties in share consideration of 92E.
ISO currently owns 14.13% of 92E (based on latest 92E presentation)
3/
Read 4 tweets
Silex $SLX.ax $SILXY / GLE today announced a pivotal milestone for the SILEX #uranium #enrichment technology which demonstrates the ability of their laser systems to operate reliably at commercial-scale ‼️ for extended periods
Some thoughts in the 🧵
1/
cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway…
#GLE has made great progress on its quest to become the only third-generation laser #uranium #enrichment company in the world

I highlighted important points in my notes below

This also proves the benefits of having a JV partner with deep pockets like Cameco $CCJ $CCO.to

2/
The first fully commercial scale module passing this milestone is important as it is a proxy for assuming that the whole triple opportunity will pass the necessary assessments in the future

This would include natural grade UF6, LEU/LEU+ & #HALEU production

3/
Read 4 tweets
#Silex just announced testing is complete and they will ship the First Full-Scale Laser System Module to the US by years end. They are building more of these lasers and Cameco's independent engineering assessment gives it a thumbs up! #uranium $SLX.AX ...

clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/SLX/025614…
These lasers were custom designed for the frequency and pulse rates required to pop fluorine atoms off of UF6 molecules of the U235 isotope. Process is 2-20X more efficient than gas centrifuges, so it's ideal for harvesting acres of depleted tails at ...

decommissioned enrichment plants that the US needs to recycle. This should motivate more utilities to get on board the GLE/PLEF consortium bandwagon and Cameco's shares will benefit too.

The acceleration continues! Congrats Silex!

Read 6 tweets
New blog post #Uranium Portfolio Update: The empire strikes back
$FIND.v $BSENF $SLX.ax $SILXY $BMN.ax $BNNLF #92E $NTELF $DYL.ax $DYLLF #1164hk $AEE.ax $AURA.l
1/
shovel-stocks.com/post/uranium-p…
#uranium Portfolio development in 2022
8/30 before US market open

2/
5/13

3/
Read 6 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!