Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #uranium

Most recents (24)

As we must look forever forward; with the current corrections i did a *little* bit of work (don't expect more) to find more deep value.

Now that #Uranium's gone up, and hopefully #Silver is next in a flight to safety;

With #Palladium correcting, #Platinum's becoming VERY cheap. Image
The last times it was below $900, was in 2020 (panic), 2018 (bear market), 2016 (double bottom), 2008 (panic), and 2005/2004 (bull market).

Meanwhile, the outlook for #platinum is far more positive now:
- ICE cars being phased out before 2075 *is a pipedream*.
When 1 or 2 smallish countries try to transition fully, sure, it can happen.

When the entire world tries to do so at the same time, which includes China, NONE of the battery metal industries are ready for that scale.

Nickel, Lithium, Cobalt, Copper, Rare Earths. None are ready.
Read 13 tweets
$XLE #uranium, $AGE. As markets seem to be bludgeoned by the sentiments of LEHMAN 2.0 (ie Evergrande) i thought it would be interesting to reflect on some facts for us energy bulls. By the way I’m generally agnostic on the SPY- its super expensive & its a crap shoot on the next
10-20% move but i do think that energy and uranium are headed higher in due course, post a normal shake out of the LIFO FOMO crowd.
$AGE had a conversation with Greg Hall (ceo) who said that on Wednesday there was barely any inventory in spot mkt for SPUT to buy. The mkt is much thinner than many believed which means there could be further gapping risks when SPUT returns to a premium to nav. This
Read 9 tweets
1/3

July '21 mean reversion to 50 week EMA might have been the last one for a while for $EU without a major fundamental change.

$PDN had this mean reversion Nov 2003, and the next time it reversed to 50wEMA at Jul 2007, the stock was trading about 50k% higher.

#uranium
2/3

If the spot keeps on climbing Encore could reach the valid channel structure top on coming weeks ahead at 2.40+ area. Breakout would target ~1B$ market cap.
3/3

For a weak period, I'd say that the last highs seem lowest probable target at 1.50s area. Losing that means something has changed and likely will be followed by another mean reversion to 50wEMA.
Read 3 tweets
Now there is almost no production which naturally affects how we should compare the market caps of different eras. The cash flow from #uranium mining itself is almost null. Also, many equities have retraced 20% or more from the peak market valuation already, which has brought...
...the market valuation closer to the realized spot price.

Market cap of the sector also reacts in a shape of an S-curve rather than linear line, as the economics of the projects get significantly better at a certain price range. The exponential part of the journey is still...
...ahead of us, which seems unbelievable at this point where we can see ten multiples of revaluation in some of the equities already. Which is exactly why #uranium is THE investment opportunity of a life time.
Read 7 tweets
The biggest problem at Cameco is the same problem they had in 2003-2007 and that’s ego. Gerry Grandey thought he could control the uranium market. 0% chance of the price going to $50/lb he explained with glee as he told us how he could ramp up production and satisfy the industry
They take a view that price spikes are bad for them in the long run cause then other mines get financed and inevitably there will be over supply and low prices to follow. Fair enough. There’s a cycle in all commodities. But let’s call it what it is. They are timid & conservative
They think they this is the responsible approach and will create stability. But, to people who look at all the risks and understand it’s essential to not try to control your commodity market but instead change with the swings we view Cameco in a different light
Read 30 tweets
I will regret firing this off before getting on a plane, but it’s important to look at these expected realized #uranium price numbers through the lens of what Cameco’s operations would look like at $80, $100, $120/lb and not the production guidance at the time of this report.
Cameco would have significant production from McArthur River, US ISR, and an upflexed Inkai - by my count probably double (or slightly more than double) current production. So this table is probably not a great lens to evaluate right tails as production would look very different.
I’m skeptical of using revenue as the end-all, as Cameco’s mines are pretty good relative to the pack. Lower cost than many. CL and MR still look very good even with some of the best rock already mined out; Inkai is a rockstar; and the US production at least worth discussing.
Read 5 tweets
I wonder if the @Official_WSB crowd got around to reading this and thinking about it over the last few days?
Just consider:
$80 column 4 yr avg ~$58
$140 column 4 yr avg ~$65

$60 spot move and they pick up and extra $7

Wow! How exciting to be a $cco shareholder in a #uranium bull market!
Now continuing on with my early thoughts on this subject, what happens to their cashflow if we have a spike to $140 or higher?

If they need to buy spot #uranium in the market to deliver into contracts they they would lose ~$53/lb on those purchases!
Read 24 tweets
Should I expect a pullback in #Uranium? Use the distance from the 200day MA to guide you!
$ACB
$age
$TOE
Read 13 tweets
1. We have seen some massive moves in #uranium last few weeks and I'd say that we are in somewhat hype driven environment now. Rising spot is accelerating stocks, with ETF feedback loops and probably mass psychology buying through WSB, reddit aswell.
2. Many might think that is uranium a worthy investment opportunity still, after 100s and 1000s% of gains?

The fundamentals behind uranium price discovery are like no other.A commodity we need, has no substitutes, and even after the spot has risen +50% in matter of weeks...
3. ...it still cannot be mined and produced profitably with current price. The investment case in uranium is truly an unique opportunity.
Read 9 tweets
1/ Energy Fuels is hosting an open house at our White Mesa Mill in #Utah tomorrow and Friday. This is the only operating #uranium mill in the US. Also producing #RareEarths. We expect over 200 people for tours, breakout sessions, remarks by dignitaries ...
2/ U.S. Senators Mike Lee & Mitt Romney, Rep. John Curtis, U.S. Dept. of Energy, and others will be speaking. We are also making a big announcement on a major local #environmental justice initiative.
3/ With #uranium about to break through $50 per pound, these are exciting times for Energy Fuels $UUUU $EFR. We are the leading US #uranium producer, with more proven capacity, expertise and recent production than any other US company. Plus, great progress on #RareEarths.
Read 3 tweets
#uranium stocks are going to have very volatile times ahead as the stock prices stretch out of the mean prices. I'd say double digits up/down rally which could ultimately lead to a 150-200% extension over long term mean, the first bull market momemtum peak. ->
It might be, that I'm too early to call this, but the current setup makes it totally possible. These values move in conjuction with the mean price, so they change quite fast. ->
Some examples of the current momemtum peak targets for few popular #uranium stocks

$EU 2.90 - 3.48
$DML 3.22 - 3.86
$FCU 1.36 - 1.63
$GLO 6.04 - 7.24
$GXU .64 - .765
$UEX .83 - .99
$UUUU 12.58 - 15.09
$PDN 1.11 - 1.33
$DYL 1.69 - 2.03
$BMN .435 - .505
$VMY .275 - .335
Read 3 tweets
1/ 🚨 Seeing Around Corners: Uranium

#Uranium is becoming a popular topic in investing circles given the recent vertical move in spot prices

Two months ago, @titanvest VAR identified the multi-year secular trend & invested in two leading uranium mining stocks.

How we did it ⤵️
2/ Structural Supply Deficit

LT supply rationalization by the 2 largest uranium producers caused a supply deficit in 2018 (1st time since Fukushima).

The firms committed to production cuts until prices rose above sustainable breakeven levels ($55-$60 / lb vs. ~$30 in July).
3/ Oncoming Demand Spike

Research indicates the vast majority of U.S. utility companies will need to re-sign LT uranium supply contracts over the next 3 yrs to secure this core feedstock for the next decade+.

Once this wave of contract renewals converges w/ constrained supply.
Read 13 tweets
1/ Some brief thoughts on $SPUT / $U-U and why it trading lower on today's open is a good thing for #uranium -- Yesterday's daily update showed that #Sprott did not purchase material or issue units.
2/ This confounded some investors, given the close to 30% premium of the vehicle...

There is a simple explanation: While updating an ATM, it is common to have limitations on market activities.
3/ While the new base shelf prospectus hit Friday, the company did not file an updated sales agreement and confirm the ATM until post close yesterday (see attached).
Read 8 tweets
1/9 It's not time yet for a return, but I had to peek in and congratulate the #uranium community. I have been semiactive on my long perspective trading during the twitter hibernation period. Most likely I will never ever achieve these level of gains again in my portfolio.
2/9 It's good to enjoy, but never let it define your plan. You were smart to invest in #uranium, but there are two hard parts of the journey still ahead.
3/9 First. ONLY profit there is, is a realized profit. For the coming years ahead you should have a plan to sell, and realize the profit you've made on #uranium.
Read 9 tweets
Fuel buyers / utilities. I know your getting angry and emotional but you brought this on yourselves. You can sit on your hands and tell each other that you’re gonna wait this #uranium spike out and refuse to buy but your just gonna look even more stupid the longer you wait.
You guys bankrupted the #uranium mining industry to chose to not contract at fair prices and secure your future needs.

Now you are angry cause you didn’t see this coming and your fragile egos are preventing you from admitting your were wrong.
You guys are on the wrong side of what the financial world is a suicide short. We know you will pay up and must buy uranium. We are prepared to buy hold and wait as long as it takes for you to crack. There’s a date on each of your calendars when we know you will have no choice
Read 10 tweets
$u.un has had a decent take off since the ATM started but everyone invested in the space should appreciate that it’s just the start. The new players that are coming to the theme/trade are first focused on buying calls in miners and a basket of junior #uranium miners
The larger hedge funds will undoubtedly want to get max exposure in miners/explorers first. For multi billion dollar funds and large family offices it’s difficult to get enough money into the space. Once positioned in the general #uranium stocks they will get aggressive w/$u.un
I know there are funds moving into the space with the fire power to fund $u.un to eat up all the avail spot #uranium that will be for sale between $40 and $180. But know the plan for most is buy the stocks first then help squeeze the uranium price.
Read 49 tweets
Another day, another dollar, another investment professional misunderstanding how #uranium costs affect electricity prices from nuclear reactors.

Up today is @KatusaResearch - and the article linked below.

katusaresearch.com/the-uranium-fr…
Two quotes stand out:

"Whether uranium is $45... or $450 [/lb] the cost per [kWh] difference is a rounding error compared to a similar price pop in natural gas or coal."

"For example, a 1000% increase in uranium price will result in a 24% increase in electricity generation..."
When building a *new* reactor, most of the cost is in the construction - the labor, wires, concrete, and steel. Fuel is a very small component of the lifecycle costs of the reactor, and so new builds are insensitive to uranium price.

This is NOT the case for existing units.
Read 9 tweets
@casperj33081634 Atm ability of $u.un will absolutely make the ultimate peak of the #uranium price much higher than the previous cycle.

The speed of the vehicles uranium consumption will be fast for sure as well.
@casperj33081634 The premium required to do issues last cycle was at least 6% and typically executed with more like 10% due to broker fees and a discount demanded to get institutional participation.
@casperj33081634 The size of a stock issue also needed to be many times larger. Brokers wouldn’t bother getting involved and the legal fees etc for the paperwork made large raises necessary
Read 11 tweets
Likely very accretive for $EU shareholders given the much higher valuation #uranium
This deal will propel the $EU stockprice through $3 over the next 3-6 months

#uranium
The foundations are being laid for the next 3x upside $EU, potentially exceeding $PDN 869x last cycle

#uranium
Read 4 tweets
My old friend Ross Clark has been reading some of my posts and was kind enough to send me some of his excellent technical analysis to help illustrate what I’ve been saying about the #urabium market and why it will be hard to hold on to this bull for most of you
Here’s a chart of $gme in semi-log and you can see how it did in fact take off with a ‘Livermore widing cylinder channel’ and so powerful as to be charted semi log to see it Image
Here’s the same $gme chart clean. Crazy spike. Hard to see what happened along the way Image
Read 9 tweets
Perspective in those stating #uranium is going to $2000/lb

At $200 sustained spot for 12 months = our investments would be worth $700m, cashflow margins would be 80%, improbable

At $1000 = $2.8bn = 0.0001% Probability

At $2000 = $7bn = 0.0000000000000001% Probability
What is probable in the #uranium space....

$65-85/lb average contracting

$140-200/lb very short term spot spike

Top 5 Nano caps achieving 8-10x from current levels

Average sector stock returns 3-4x from current levels
Stimulating greed in cyclicals post the mid way point, can be destabilising to rational thought and action as the cliff is approaching....anchor oneself in reality, scale down post $70 spot for 70% of investors is the best action.

#cyclicalinvesting101
#uranium
Read 3 tweets
1/11) @Sprott's Physical #Uranium Trust🏦 has poured gas on a fire🔥 that was already burning under #Uranium #mining #stocks📈 due to incredibly bullish fundamentals💪 of surging #CarbonFree #Nuclear demand🏗️⚛️↗️ vs tanking #U3O8 supply⛏️⤵️ & strengthening daily.🏋️‍♂️ Here's a🧵4U👇
2) #Uranium #mining #stocks are famous⭐️ for delivering extraordinary life-altering returns😎🍹🏝️ when they enter a boom cycle⤴️ after a long painful bear market for #Nuclear fuel😫when supply/demand fundamentals shift🌊 as they have now in early stages of a strong uptrend⬆️.../3
3) #Uranium is a cyclical commodity🔃 that goes through boom & bust cycles based on supply vs demand imbalances⚖️ magnified to extremes by supply security fears😟 as there is no available substitute fuel for #nuclear reactors & production is concentrated in so few countries .../4
Read 11 tweets
How Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) is dominating the #Uranium space: A thread👇

1) They are buying physical uranium with the sole intention of storing it and taking pounds off the table.
2) The supply side of the market is pretty rigid as it’s not profitable to start a new mine to produce additional #uranium below 50-60 dollars per pound currently.

No new mines = rigid supply
3) As Sprott buys pounds and increases demand, the spot price of #uranium inches up

This increases Sprott’s “Net asset value”

(NAV) = lbs stored x spot price per lb
Read 10 tweets
More thoughts on the @Official_WSB crowd jumping on the uranium trade…

Wallstreetbets’ laid out the obvious uranium bull market story well on Reddit a couple days ago. 10mm followers and you can see in the market they are now taking action.

#uranium #memestocks #uraniumsqueeze
It’s such a compelling theme and imho has the greatest certianty of working out fantastic of any commodity bull I’ve ever seen or read about in history. Why?
Cause it’s a super tight commodity that takes years to materially expand supply. Utilities will be $500/lb plus if they have to and the total market size is just so tiny it’s crazy. The world richest 100 people see there net worth’s fluctuate more than the entire sector daily
Read 20 tweets

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