Thread by @iChunaav

In this thread 🧵, we zoom into the 4 political divisions of Gujarat and see how each one voted in the last two state elections. For reference, a map of political divisions juxtaposed with districts of Gujarat can be found here 👇

#gujaratelection2022 #GujaratElections

Saurashtra-Kutch - the biggest political division in the state both in terms of area and number of constituencies, swung dramatically in favour of INC in 2017 as compared to 2012. INC gained 14 seats in 2017 while the BJP lost 12 seats in the region.

#GujaratElections

Despite the swing, BJP gained around 1% vote share while the INC clocked a whopping 9% gain in vote share. It is noteworthy that this region is the least urbanised in the state and that BJP lost on 4 SC reserved seats from its 2012 tally which went to INC in 2017.

#Saurashtra

Political and electoral impact of the patel reservation agitation reverberated the most in Saurashtra. Looking at the map 👆 again , other than urban clusters of Jamnagar, Rajkot, Bhavnagar, and Dwarka the rest of Saurashtra division looks blue.

#GujaratElections2022

North Gujarat includes the urban center of Ahmedabad. Looking at this political division, electorally we see only minor changes between 2012 & 2017. BJP lost 3 seats while retaining its vote share & INC gained 2 seats with a 1.5% gain in vote share.
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North Gujarat - INC lost on 2 SC reserved seats in the region however retained the 3 ST reserved seats. Patel agitation would also be one the key factors in BJP losing strength in the districts of BanasKantha and Patan.

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Coming down to urban division of Central Gujarat which includes Vadodara, we see BJP gaining 2 seats while INC losing 2. BJP also gained 2% on vote share while INC retained its vote share. The 2 seats lost by INC were both ST reserved seats.
#CentralGujarat #Elections2022

Vadodara has been a BJP strong hold traditionally and continued to remain so in both the elections. 10 out of 27 ST reserved seats fall in Central Gujarat. BJP gained ground amongst the tribals in Gujarat, while the INC barely managed to retain its foothold amongst the community.

Moving on to another highly urbanised division of south Gujarat, interestingly, we see INC gaining 2 seats while losing 1% of vote share and BJP losing 3 seats and gaining 3% of vote share. Surat which is another BJP strong hold continued to remain in its lap.
#Surat #elections

Even after protests against demonetisation and GST in Surat, politically the city went with BJP. South Gujarat has 14 (more than half of total ST seats) out of 27 ST reserved seats in Gujarat. Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP) and INC both damaged BJP's prospects in tribal seats.

This sums up the first round of regional analysis of Gujarat elections. We'll be exploring margins and impact of urbanisation on voting intentions next. If you like what we post, please do follow and share. Thank you!

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