Housing is in trouble.
1/10
2/10
The combination of principal and interest is backbreaking. And maybe mortgage rates go even higher.
3/10
Many people defended home price-to-income ratios when people were locking in 2.75%. I'm not sure what the defense is anymore, now that mortgages rates are 5+%.
4/10
I'll show this table until I'm blue in the face. A total disappearance of the move-up buyer.
The whole thing was built on 3% mortgages. You get one more bathroom for $1,500 more per month. No thanks.
5/10
"Soft" housing market? Ask the shareholders of Redfin and Zillow if those stock prices are predicting something a bit more dramatic than "soft."
6/10
July new home supply records JULY data.
But July existing home data captures bids accepted in May/June with the closing documents signed in July.
Wait until the summer numbers come in. Up we go.
7/10
If you're not convinced, look at this.
The right scale is inverted.
The people who build houses for a living are telling us something. Maybe we should listen.
8/10
And...all of that Covid backlog of houses will be finished soon.
9/10
With buyers freaked out. Activity is tanking.
10/10
Because they cannot afford these prices.
END
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