Thread by @USMortality

🔥 Big 🧵on the accuracy of reported epidemiological vaccine efficacy data in the US and the data fraud involved to mislead the public!

CDC prominently reports cases and deaths by vaccination status. Risk of dying from COVID-19 if unvaxxed is >5x-11x higher - is that true?

1/n

I've downloaded the dataset at: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra…
This dataset has absolute numbers, but only includes covid deaths that are reported from 31 states, 71% of the population.
Noteworthy, that all deaths within 30 days of a positive test are counted.

Now, I filtered the underlying covid deaths from the death by cause CDC dataset, by those 31 states.
Now, plotting them together with the vaxx status deaths from the above dataset, we get a nearly exact match!
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

So this would suggest, that CDC knows the vaxx status of all COVID-19 deaths?!
Can that be true? I've heard otherwise from people, e.g. @jsm2334.

So @Hold2LLC pointed me to the fact that there are several issues, as example NYC & AZ do not know vaccination status of all people.

We can see that from NYC's own dashboard, where they reported 17 deaths, as 7-day average on 7/31/22. That results in 17 * 7 = 119 total C19 deaths.

However by vaccination status, they only report 11 deaths fully vaxxed, and 26 deaths counted as unvaxxed (and/or not fully vaxxed?).
A total of 37 deaths with vaxx status. That's only 31% of total deaths with known vaxx status!!
www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/about…

2nd issue, is that NYC seems to overestimate the number of vaccinated, as can be seen in their dashboard map.
They report 111k 1st vaccinations in Sunset Park, while it has only 95k residents, bringing the vaccination rate to 117%.
WOW!!
www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…

When calculating Vaccine Efficacy (VE) based on these too high vaccinated numbers, it will skew VE in favor of the vaccinated.

On top of that, NYC admits on their Github, that they count people with unknown vaxx status as unvaccinated!
github.com/nychealth/coro…

The exact same holds true for Arizona, while NY State doesn't even bother to publish c19 deaths by vaccine status.
azdhs.gov/covid19/data/i…

So in summary, there are at least 3 major flaws:
1) Vaxx status for only a fraction of covid19 deaths are known.
2) Unknown status are counted as unvaxxed.
3) Vaxxed population is (grossly) overestimated.

Of course there are other vectors of bad methodoloy, e.g. not cross referencing against all-cause mortality and of course the famous 14 day until fully vaxxed trickery.

All details I've lined out here:

With the above presented evidence, I think, that the c19 deaths by vaxx status that CDC presents are simply an based on extrapolated figures from state data, which methodology is severly flawed.
We must demand that this misinformation is corrected & all the real data is presented

Addendum, I've also checked TX data. Which is very odd!
On their website, they publish rates (deaths/100k) by age group.
I've examined 2022 week 6, specifically.
dshs.texas.gov/immunize/covid…

Based on the sum of unvaxx/vaxxed rates & using the US Census age stratified population data for Texas, this calculates to 2,496 c19 deaths for week 6/2022, just in the 65-74 age bracket!
That's 63% higher than reported c19 deaths for all ages together!

For all age groups, that would result in 4162 covid deaths, while only 1523 actually happened.

Hence we can conclude that this data must be faulty to begin with.

I will email the Texas chief epidemiologist to ask what's going on!

Sources & Calculations: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

@threadreaderapp unroll plz

Correction, in above example of NYC, I compared the wrong years. For 7/31/21, 75% of the deaths had a vaxx status - however, during that time, vaccinations were still ramping up, which means that in the unvaxxed category, likely freshly vaxxed were included.

For 2022, unfortunately the data does not line up, but there are clearly some weeks where only a fraction of deaths have a vaxx status.

I'll keep investigating...