Thread by @minna_alander

The space for reasonable discussion & legitimate criticism of differing positions in Europe in the context of Russia’s war has become almost non-existent due to the prevalent toxic mood.

At the risk of getting cancelled by all sides, I’ll nevertheless try to address the matter

It’s indicative of a deeper problem with European solidarity, which took a bad hit in the euro crisis & never fully recovered. Last year I expected the north-south divide to become the greatest challenge to 🇪🇺 unity, but Russia’s war has brought back the East-West divide too

It looks like CEE & Baltics are now screaming at the top of their lungs and disagreeing with whatever 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 do - damned if you do, damned if you don’t. The tone is often counterproductive and idiotic suggestions such as discarding 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 from Europe/EU just discredit the message

But the real underlying concern is that CEE & Baltics feel like 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 still do not understand or sufficiently consider their security interests when 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 are talking to/ about Russia. (Tbf, Germany hasn’t understood or considered anyone’s security interests, not even its own)

Esp 🇩🇪 ignored CEE for years re: Russia and they feel rightfully bitter about it. In Northern Europe it’s a subject of profound astonishment how 🇩🇪 has jeopardised both European economy & security with the short-sighted lack of risk management in energy & security policy

(As a side note: while Finland has had more foresight what comes to diversity of the energy portfolio and not depending on Russia, mistakes were made in 🇫🇮 too: e.g. the 2014 decision to greenlight the Rosatom-Fennovoima nuclear power plant deal…

…which was subsequently left pending final govt approval and finally called off this year, as well as the decision by 🇫🇮 half state-owned Fortum in 2017 to start investing in 🇩🇪 Uniper, with much of its business in Russian gas, which will now likely cost Finland billions of €)

Germans & French then feel that esp the Baltics are ungrateful for the 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 contribution to NATO’s collective defence.

But that’s exactly the point: imagine depending on someone for your defence and feeling that they do not, in fact, understand your security concerns & needs

What results is a fear of being thrown under the bus as soon as the going gets too tough for German & French electorates, given that people obviously feel with Ukraine on totally different levels closer & further away from Russia.

Often with both 🇩🇪&🇫🇷 the problem is not so much what they’re actually doing but how it’s communicated. Macron’s infamous “don’t humiliate Russia” was a good case in point. However, he seems to have learned from the mistake and has since been very clear about his commitment to 🇺🇦

Another great example was Scholz saying that NATO eastern expansion will not happen while he’s in office when he was in Moscow just days before Russia started the invasion. It prob didn’t even occur to him that it could be understood in Finland to include 🇫🇮 NATO membership

🇩🇪 has disappointed many partners & allies this year and the trust will take a long and sustained effort to rebuild. 🇫🇷 is not considered a credible leader for Europe because it’s rather obvious that France will be France - i.e. looking at things through a very French lens.

But NCEE have a very bad track record on solidarity as well: CEE esp what comes to migration (& not to mention undermining 🇪🇺 values re: rule of law) and Northern Europeans oppose fiscal solidarity. The debate on NGEU was literally“we don’t want to pay for Italians’ pizza”.

The UK has prolonged its own particular shitshow (excuse the language) called Brexit for 6 years now and is very much a mess domestically. 🇬🇧 support for Ukraine is solid & crucial but it would be even better without all the bragging. More cooperation is needed, not a competition

So everyone needs to take a long hard look in the mirror and understand that you cannot expect to receive if you don’t give. The mentality of everyone trying to maximise their piece of the cake - and eat it too - will continue to take a toll on European unity & solidarity

P.S. Gave Southern Europe some slack because they were already thrown under the bus both in the euro crisis and on migration/ refugees. But everyone knows that Italian politics is a huge mess too.