Thread by @PolymarketIntel

#Ukraine: We obtained another video demonstrating 🇮🇷 Iranian OF-462 122mm projectiles used by Ukrainian artillerymen - this time with much clearer markings, unequivocally identifying them as manufactured in Iran in 2022.

The way the crate is marked is absolutely identical to most Iranian materiel supplied abroad. The ammunition crate itself is also the same as crates coming from Iran. There's no way that's a coincidence.

The markings also state the fuze used - B-429E, which is an Iranian copy of the Soviet V-429E artillery fuze. The same designation is presented only in the Iranian Defense Industries Organization catalogue.

Under the previous tweet regarding this topic some people tried to argue saying that these projectiles are likely have been intercepted by the US en route to Iranian proxies, but some details make it extremely unlikely.

First of all, with years of experience of arms proliferation in the Middle East we have never seen such Iranian 122mm ammunition used in Yemen. Secondly, the projectiles seen in Ukraine were manufactured in 2022, and no interception of such ammunition was reported this year.

Thirdly, as someone claimed that the projectiles may have been intercepted but it was decided not to report but directly give them to Ukraine, we suggest doing some mathematics.

The 2S1 is usually loaded with 16 projectiles - and the gross weight of this amount will be ~600kg.

Even a small amount of 150 projectiles weighs more than 6 tons.

You can check the history of seizures of deliveries to Houthis in Yemen from Iran and you will quickly understand that such volumes in 2022 are deeply problematic to transfer via the usual sea routes.

Any claims that these have been captured from the Russian army are, of course, baseless. We carefully monitor ammunition used by both sides and would have already noticed them - and no Russian supply trucks or 122mm SPHs were captured for months.

We would welcome any additional viewpoints as to just how substantial amount of 🇮🇷 Iranian artillery ammunition found itself in Ukraine; but regardless, we believe there has been some serious subterfuge somewhere along the line!