According to the Russian Starshe Eddy channel, not only is Balakliya encircled but Ukrainian forces appear to have taken Volokhiv Yar over night. They think Ukraine will try to push towards Kupyansk.
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Another Russian Telegram channel says that Ukraine increased the intensity of missiles strikes, particularly HIMARS, over the past week on Izyum, Kupyansk, and other areas. They say Ukraine has been preparing for the offensive for at least a month. 2/
t.me/grey_zone/14922
Another Russian channel says “don’t expect good news today” before saying Russian units there are below 50% manning levels while the staff are bloated. Two Rosgvardia detachments have been fighting for more than a day encircled near Volokhiv Yar. 3/
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Vladlen Tatarsky says he trusts the info from the Starshe Eddy and Zapiski Veteran channels who are both involved in the fighting in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction. He says the two encircled Rosgvardia units are SOBR from Samara and Bashkiria. 4/
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Another Ru account says they are only fighting at partial strength and that the Russian state must be fully mobilized. They question why capabilities are being shown at Vostok 2022 when Russian soldiers lack artillery and aviation. “We have a long and difficult fight ahead of us”
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This was Putin, Shoigu, and Gerasimov at Vostok 2022 yesterday as Ukraine launched its offensive in the Balakliya area. 8/
Tatarsky tells Rosgvardia troops to learn how to call for fire before deploying and how to use AGS grenade launchers, ATGM, and SPG-9. A reminder that they aren’t trained for conventional war. 9/
t.me/vladlentatarsk…
Another Russian Channel questions why battalion and company commanders didn’t see the offensive coming and prepare and that they shouldn’t have made a public warning if higher ignored them. They suggest senior officers are incompetent and ignored Intel.10/
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Already a strong theme from the Russian Telegram accounts that this is a Russian military leadership failure that is putting soldiers on the front lines at greater risk than they should be. 12/
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Starshe Eddy is criticizing people saying Ukraine lacks reserves in the Balakliya-Izyum area. He’s angry with generals and senior officers but praises juniors soldiers and officers doing the fighting. 15/
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Not a good sign for Russian forces in Izyum if Pegov sounds this pessimistic. 30/
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