Thread by @KarenCutter4

One of the common questions people have asked me about our excess deaths work is "have you looked at it by age?"
Here's a bit of insight into that question, noting it comes with a lot of caveats...
#covid19Aus #excessdeaths

For anyone who missed it, here is my thread of excess deaths in Australia to the end of May 2022

First off, the ABS provisional mortality statistics show a breakdown by age/gender. But the age groups are very broad (0-44, 45-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85+). So there could be trends occurring within the age bands that are hidden when grouped together.

Eg, its not unreasonable to expect that mortality for 45-50yrs was less impacted by the pandemic than 60-64yrs, but they are in the one age band.
Even combining 65-69 with 70-74 might mask a bigger change in the older half cf the younger half.
And the 0-44 age band is very big!

There is also no breakdown by age/gender x cause. Cause is really helpful as it can help explain why we might be seeing a certain trend. We know mortality in 2020 and 2021 was impacted by lower respiratory deaths, but can only guess the impacts of this by age.

This graph shows the Aust population from 2015-2022 in the 5 age bands.
[Aside: the lack of migration in 2020 and 2021 shows clearly here in the under 65s]

Contrast the population graph with this one showing deaths in the first five months of each year from 2015-2022. The 0-44s make up 60% of pop but only 5% of deaths, while 85+ make up only 2% of pop but 40% of deaths.

The graph clearly shows a big increase in numbers of deaths in the 75-84 and 85+ age groups in 2022, more so that population increases would suggest.
The 45-64 and 64-75 age groups are less clear. While deaths are up a little, numbers are small and may be driven by pop changes.

A VERY rough back of the envelope calculation suggests excess mortality in 2022 by age group of:
- around 15% for both 75-84 and 85+
- ballpark of around 5% for 65-74
- less than 5% for under 64
And the excess for males maybe a few % points worse than for females.

Does this help with identifying what might be causing excess deaths?
For me, it is yet more evidence that vaccines are not a driver. Given that all age groups other than children are very highly vaccinated, we would have seen more deaths in younger cohorts.

It also supports that drugs/alcohol/diet are unlikely to be a big contributor as they are more likely to show up in younger age cohorts.
But I think everything else is still on the table in terms of our four most likely reasons.

The end. Any questions?
[And before you ask, yes, I am planning to do a look by state/territory.]