To the Republicans complaining about the billions the US is sending to Ukraine
I’m going to share with a private opinion from a knowledgeable European official I know
Basically, he starts off smiling and saying the US are “absolutely ruthless” with regard to the Ukraine war
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I reponded that America is footing most of the bill for this
He laughed, hard
He said: win, lose or draw, the Americans win
Main points
-“Money” being sent to Ukraine is mostly in form of arms/weapons
-They’re sent via “lend-lease” meaning Ukraine will have to pay it back
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-It wasn’t until after Ukraine showed that it would not be occupied by Russia, that the US committed big budgets and armaments
-After the war, the EU will be on the hook for rebuilding Ukraine, integrating them into the union and thus helping pay back the US lend-lease arms
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-The US is passing off older, strategically obsolete weapons which would eventually be replaced (HIMARS)
-The US didn’t part with any of their most effective and technologically advanced systems (helicopers, planes)
-NATO is strengthened under US leadership
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-America will achieve all its strategic objectives on the cheap
-Europe will need to invest in their military which will mean big business for the US
-Russian armaments have been exposed as inferior so Russia will lose global marketshare to the US military industry
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-Europe is essentially decoupled from the Russian energy tit, creating a huge opportunity for US LNG
-Europe falls completely out of Russian influence
-The Russian military is grounded down by Ukraine with no American soldiers dying
-Russia finished as a threat to US influence
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-The US can now focus all military attention towards containing China
-This is also a wakeup call for EU to take China seriously as a military adversary
-EU-China relations have been set back decades in terms of cooperation
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-The days of the US having to twist the EU’s arm to not let Huawei build their 5G system are over
-China’s slow moving influence campaign into Europe is essentially done
-China now needs to think much harder about invading Taiwan…both militarily and strategically (sanctions)
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The conclusion was that whatever the actual costs to the US, it’s peanuts compared to the accomplishment of these strategic objectives which will be reaping dividends for years to come
Ultimately the EU will shoulder most of the suffering while the US reaps the benefits
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Some people are asking me for proof…it’s an analysis…and it’s by someone else
You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it’s not repaid it doesn’t change the main point
I did a deepdive on this in May but didn’t touch much on geopolitics
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gummibear737.substack.com/p/deep-dive-wh…
I’m a big fan of Peter Zeihan
This made my day😉
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Looking at the the Middle East
Russia has a foothold in Syria and has thrown their weight behind Iran which operates out of Syria via Hezbollah to attack/destabilize Israel
They also support Iran's proxy war in Yemen in which the Saudis are involved
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jpost.com/middle-east/ar…
Both are meant to undermine the US backed Israel-Saudi Arabia "alliance" against Iran
Iran's goal?
Influence/destabilization
Ultimately, any weakening of Russia also weakens Iran leading to greater stability in the Middle East and energy security
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atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasour…
On cue, the full court press against the Russian military industrial complex has begun
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edition.cnn.com/2022/09/21/ind…
The Europeans are finally starting to catch on
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foxnews.com/world/european…
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