Thread by @AVindman

Thoughts on Russia-Ukraine War.
Military: Ukraine’s forces have routed Russians in the Kharkiv operational area (that’s not a premature conclusion). The Russians are unlikely to conduct a successful counterattack let alone an offensive. They have neither the forces or equipment.

What force they do have is out of position for…several more days. If they’re smart, they’ll hold at the border of Kharkiv province (crossing into Russia is not something Ukraine is likely ready to do). If not, they will pick a less defensible line and throw in forces piecemeal.

What does the rout mean?
It’s an operational military defeat with the loss of enormous amounts of equipment. It’s a banner crop of weapons for Ukraine; all sorts of really valuable gear of which the Russians are now deprived.

But more importantly it’s a strategic morale & political defeat.

Routs are infectious. We’re likely to see spread at least to the Donetsk/Luhansk operational direction & there’s still a very effective offensive unfolding in Kherson. We’ll know in the next week or so.

We’ll also know whether Russia is going to go to a general mobilization in the next week or so. I think it’s unlikely as Putin would go all in& risk his regime with no real expectation of success. More likely, he will do what he did in Kyiv and reduce his ambitions.

Again, when faced w/ resolve, resistance, determined defense & force he will blink.

He will not escalate.

This is a another lesson for U.S. & western policymakers. Failure to deter enables/emboldens Putin & other authoritarians. Resolute defense of interests is the answer.