Ukraine's Victory Remains in Reach: Implementing Critical Policy Changes in the Third Year of War

The negative news coverage of the Ukraine-Russia conflict has unleashed a flood of dire predictions. However, doomsayers’ forecasts are overly grim and the outcome can be much more favorable for Ukraine with the right support and proper adjustment of both the United States’ and Ukraine’s strategy.

The single most important factor outside of Ukraine’s control determining outcomes in the third year of war will be Western - and specifically American - military support. No single country or combination of countries can match the United States’ security assistance. Currently, American security aid is frozen in a political battle over congressionally appropriated funds.

And while Ukraine aid is frequently presented as if Ukraine controls the funding, the reality is very different. Most of this funding is neither sent to Ukraine nor used to purchase weapons sent to Ukraine.  Instead, the aid is used to replenish stocks of antiquated American equipment with new material rolling off defense industry production lines. In fact, it is the connection between the drawdown of old equipment and the replenishment of U.S. military storehouses with new equipment that has arrested the flow of support to Ukraine. The U.S. still retains massive stockpiles of weapons and ammunition in the European theater that could be transferred to Ukraine, but will not drawdown these stocks because Congress hasn’t authorized replenishment.

Like with the Lend-Lease programs of World War II, the U.S. can and should transfer military material even absent the congressionally appropriated replenishment funds. By sending material without replenishment funds the U.S. would be accepting a small risk to our military in the event that our soldiers would need the equipment to fight an adversary, but that is an unlikely “what if” scenario. Instead of fixating on this hypothetical situation, we should be supporting Ukraine - a partner that is already in the fight and actively destroying Russia’s conventional military capability.

On the topic of material support, there is a secondary challenge that is also very fixable. Currently, Russia outguns Ukraine by firing 5 or more rounds of artillery for every rationed shell fired by Ukraine. American and European assistance can fix that lopsided ratio by marrying European dollars with U.S. ammunition production lines. We have the arsenal of democracy, but no funding because of our political paralysis. Europe has the funds, but not the manufacturing base to produce shells. Such an arrangement would combine our strengths to help Ukraine. The EU, led by Czechia, has made great strides already in closing the gap by scouring the globe and finding 1.5 million rounds of ammunition for Ukraine. But that is still a one-off solution. It’s time for the EU to invest in a long-term solution through the U.S. arsenal.

Another issue is the median age of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF). Wars are fought by the young. The current median age for the UAF is estimated to be 43 years old. For the Russian Armed Forces, the current median age is estimated at 35. Since Russia has four times the population of Ukraine, this gap will likely continue to grow and tilt the military advantage towards Russia. Ukraine needs more soldiers to ensure sufficient troop strength and adequate reserves to rotate worn-out forces from the frontlines. The Government of Ukraine has taken the initial steps to close draft loopholes and reduce the draft age from 27 to 25. However, Ukraine will need to go even further to ensure adequate military manpower for a war expected to run well into 2025. If implemented, these policies will have a meaningful impact on Ukraine’s ability to both defend this year and attack next year and thus bring the war to a close. Ukraine’s former top military officer General Zaluzhny argued that Ukraine’s limited ability to conduct offensive operations was partially due to disparities between the Ukrainian and Russian industrial and technological bases. While this may be true, major deficiencies in logistics and training are at least as important as technological factors or production lines for new equipment. These necessary reforms are within Ukraine’s power to improve.

The lack of focus on sustainment and repair of Western-donated equipment and the inadequate logistical preparations are both an American and Ukrainian shortfall. Ukraine remains too focused on acquiring new material instead of keeping its current inventory at maximum functional status. Kyiv should be aggressively advocating for the expansion of its repair and maintenance capabilities - particularly when more than half of the donated equipment is currently damaged or nonfunctional due to wear and tear.

The U.S. Department of Defense has also been negligent in its support of donated equipment. Almost all the maintenance support for Ukraine is conducted outside of its territory in massive depots in Poland. Fighting a war with your repair facilities 800km from the frontlines is a recipe for disaster. There is a recommendation from the Department of Defense teed-up for the President to ease the restriction and allow defense contractors to come into Ukraine to improve the logistical tail. POTUS should not delay and make a move in this direction immediately.

The lack of proper training is another critical shortfall. The West has been focused on training Ukraine’s fighting troops but has neglected training effective commands and staffs. To break through Russian defenses, Ukraine will have to mass forces, breach obstacles, and suppress enemy artillery, airpower, and drones. Ukrainian forces will need to ensure they can communicate and operate under electronic warfare assaults while simultaneously using their own systems to jam Russian communications and disrupt the operations of loitering munitions and FPV drones.

These tasks require a well-trained staff capable of synchronizing and orchestrating these complex operations. The U.S. invests enormous resources into providing our troops sufficient training to conduct synchronized operations - creating an effective command and staff should become a training priority in Ukraine. If Washington is looking to err on the side of caution, the U.S. can conduct this training in Ukraine with former military personnel working as contractors rather than active-duty troops.

Despite the criticality of the aforementioned policy changes, the most important action the U.S. and the West can take is to mobilize political support.  Generating the political will to pursue a Ukrainian victory and Russian defeat must be prioritized. This can be achieved by fully recognizing the risk of a Russian triumph and Ukrainian defeat for the U.S. and NATO. The simple fact is if the U.S. doesn’t want troops fighting in Europe, it should send Ukraine maximum material support. Furthermore, to prevent the perpetual threat of Russian aggression towards Ukraine, the West will need to offer Kyiv ironclad security guarantees through NATO and European Union membership.

There are tangible benefits to Kyiv’s entry into the alliance. Firstly, Ukrainian NATO membership would act as a bulwark against a still-aggressive Russia. Secondly, NATO membership would eliminate a decades-long flashpoint in the region through Ukraine’s unambiguous inclusion in a Western security structure. Finally, the Ukrainian army would be an asset and example to European powers given that it is now the most battle-hardened in Europe. NATO membership would also enable the reconstruction and transformation of Ukraine and help establish a powerful model for other former Soviet states to emulate.

Trump's call for Putin to attack a NATO ally isn't just political bluster—it's a clear and present danger to NATO, the US, and global security. Why? Let's dive into the implications. Even though he is not the sitting President, Trump's words have consequences. By inviting Russia to challenge NATO, he's not just undermining decades of strategic deterrence but also signaling to Putin that the US might not defend its allies.

Putin's propaganda machine is at it again, spreading dangerous myths of “Nazis in Ukraine.” In a recent Substack post, I unraveled these lies and revealed how they fit within Russia's larger tactic to distort Ukraine's fight for democracy. Putin's propaganda machine is at it again, spreading dangerous myths of “Nazis in Ukraine.” In a recent Substack post, I unraveled these lies and revealed how they fit within Russia's larger tactic to distort Ukraine's fight for democracy.

1/ In my latest Substack post, I candidly analyze Ukraine's grim prospects for 2024 amid the chaos in Congress. This is Part 1 of a detailed exploration, with Part 2 coming tomorrow. Dive into the complexities Ukraine will face over the next year. A thread. More at my Stack. 2/ Ukraine's future as a vibrant democracy is hanging by a thread, reliant on US support. Without it, the situation would turn from critical to catastrophic. The challenges are complex, encompassing not just military, but also political and economic dimensions.

Active Measures and Influence Operations: Creating Chaos for Opportunity

Read the full article here:
open.substack.com/pub/alexanderv…
Last week Stars of David were painted on buildings in France to identify Jew. Immediately comparisons were made to Nazi-era historical images preceding the Holocaust. This incident amidst rising antisemitism further polarized French society, adding to the chaos of the moment.

The theory for placing 2 carrier strike groups & an amphibious ready group with a marine expeditionary unit in the Middle East is it will deter Iran, Hezbollah, & Syria. @POTUS is visiting to support & reassure Israel, influence its’s ground operations, & deter enemies. But… 1/6 The show of strength & POTUS visit may not be enough of to deter. There’s been an erosion of deterrence. Internal chaos driven but Trumpism, a soft national security policy towards Russia/ insufficient support for Ukraine give our enemies the perception the US won’t act. 2/6

Horrible decision by McCarthy @SpeakerMcCarthy preventing @ZelenskyyUa from addressing a joint session of Congress. With that action McCarthy likely extends Russia’s heinous war on Ukraine. Here’s the logic… One of the drivers of Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was Trumpism and the authoritarian elements of the Republican Party cheerleading Putin, encouraging the view that Russia could score an easy win. @realDonaldTrump @RonDeSantis @GovRonDeSantis @SenRonJohnson @JDVance1

Senator @TTuberville’s hold on officer promotions is a disaster. It’s a disaster for children of military families whose parents have made enormous sacrifices to serve in our all-volunteer military. 🧵 Due to the wars, the children of military families have already sacrificed too much and endured years away from their fathers and mothers who have had multiple deployments fighting our nation’s wars. 
/2

What is the real risk of extending Ukraine NATO membership? Serious question.

Don’t tell me automatic war because of Article V. It doesn’t work that way.

Russia does not want and cannot handle a war with NATO. Thus, it would not attack the existing members of the alliance. Would it be bad precedent for NATO to hold Article V plenaries but not take direct military action (i.e. commit troops to Ukraine), maybe. Militarily, NATO could maintain the status quo, support Ukraine w/o sending troops.

In 2008 at the NATO Bucharest Summit, the alliance pronounced that Ukraine & Georgia would eventually join NATO. This was a watered-down empty pronouncement, absent concrete steps, driven by a lack of interest from Germany & France & ineffectual policymaking by the Bush Admin. NATO both went to far & not far enough with the declaration, witnessing Russia’s response months later with the invasion of Georgia. NATO settled on this approach to placate Eastern Europe, while attempting to avoid provoking Russia/ hoping for a path to cooperation with Russia.

I covered Belarus for the White House/NSC. Lukashenka, in years past, called the last dictator in Europe, has ruled Belarus since 1994. He’s had other health scares, but this one seems different. The consequences of his death will have a profound impact on Belarus & the region.

https://twitter.com/rferl/status/1658069182918066176

In Belarus, where a presidential election in 2020 resulted in months-long large scale protest after Luka stole the election, there will be a regime crisis. The opposition stands a reasonable chance of forcing new elections & at least watering down regime rule.

Calls to cut Veterans benefits, earned through blood & sweat & great sacrifices for our country, are outrageous and disgusting. It’s a betrayal of the military & their families.

It’s important to recognize this for what it is: a deliberate, coordinated campaign by the far right. For years conservative megadonors, the Koch brothers, have funded a campaign to eliminate the Department of Veterans Affairs.

In November 2018, the Russians attacked the Ukraine Navy in the Black Sea. In response, FPOTUS Trump suspended all U.S. operations in the area for months. Any peaceful operations the U.S. was conducting there had to be approved first by Trump & then when he got bored by the NSA.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1636482909979672576

I hope the Biden Admin isn't considering a similar knee-jerk reaction to suspend operations in the Black Sea, while they conduct a policy review & assesses trade-offs & risk. Russia would infer force is, which it has been reluctant to use against the West, is an effective tool.

The ICC warrants out for Putin and Russia's "children's rights commissioner" are a powerful statement about which side has the moral high ground in this war. Beyond the illegality of the invasion itself, the world's top judicial body has officially found likely war crimes. While this might not mean Putin will rot in prison, the warrants further isolate Putin and his regime and make it more difficult for him to persuade other nations to help him, or at least remain neutral. Especially when the war crimes he's accused of involve children.

🧵 Instead of allowing the conflict to drag on through the winter, the US should help Ukraine bring the war to a swift & decisive end. Doing so might allow Crimea’s final status to be determined through negotiation rather than force, sparing both Ukraine another year of war.

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1621127082439843840

It would also secure Ukrainian democracy, dissuade authoritarian powers from considering military aggression in the future, & reduce the risk of a nuclear escalation that could spiral into an existential conflict. The next months will witness a great deal of human tragedy.

Omnibus just passed!

Glad Congress came together, on a bipartisan basis, to pass the budget bill.

Freedom isn’t free. Men and women in uniform work hard every day, making unimaginable sacrifices, to defend their fellow Americans. They deserve our support. Today, they got it. This bill provides support for our national defense, and so much more. It funds new programs to counter Russia and China, and family housing on military bases. It increases funds for Veterans healthcare and supports the suicide hotline.

Defended my doctoral thesis on US-Ukraine relations 1991-2004. I guess I’m a doc.

Here are some conclusions: 1) Russia was never the partner we thought or hoped it would be. If there was reason for optimism in the 90s there is was little justification as the 2000s progressed. 2) Counterparts have agency. Thus, the U.S. needs to invest in fruitful partnerships with willing partners to achieve FP aims. Sometimes great power relations might subordinate to regional powers. Continuously prioritizing Russia, failing to hold Putin accountable breed impunity.

The lack of logistical support for the western equipment provided to Ukraine amounts to negligence.

I have personally raised this issue with senior leadership at DoD and NSC.

Many of Ukraine’s Western Weapons Await Repairs Far From the Front Line - WSJ wsj.com/articles/many-… The lack of repair parts and trained mechanics has impeded Ukraine’s efforts to conduct combat operations and liberate its territory and will extend the war. Currently Ukraine needs to transport equipment 1000km to Poland to conduct repairs.

Wait what??? Anti-dictatorship is controversial? What is wrong with you? Are you anti-democracy? You’ve demonstrated that you’re pro-hate and extremism.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1597120381986680832

More importantly, @NBCNews @CBSNews @ABC @nytimes @washingtonpost @CNN why is Musk’s extremism and authoritarian-curious bent not getting more coverage. His brand is clearly toxic to advertisers.

🧵 on the meaning of Russian strikes on Poland. This is a terrible development both for the loss of life & for what it tells us about the trajectory of Russia’s war. For those that have heard me speak on it, Russian strikes on NATO were an inevitability, in a long war scenario. This incident may be an accidental strike. However, it is just as likely that Russia is signaling the West that the war can spillover to NATO, thus the US should limit military support to Ukraine & coerce Ukraine to negotiate. This incident is important from another perspective.

🧵 “Gen. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, has made the case that the Ukrainians have achieved about as much as they could reasonably expect on the battlefield before winter sets in & so they should try to cement their gains at the bargaining table.” nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/… He is wrong, much as he has been from before the war started. Milley was the authority providing advise to @POTUS that Ukraine would be quickly defeated by Russia, thus the U.S. would only be risking a flashpoint with Russia in arming Ukraine. Milley undermined deterrence.